Trade Results Sept 23 2016


AUD/USD Short Thursday from 0.7662, exit Friday at 0.7610, + 52 pips.

AUD/CAD short Thursday at 0.9984, exit 0.9974, + 10 pips. Was tired of  no short movement so exited.

GBP/CAD this morning long from 1.6922, target 1.6972, Met 50 pip criteria, + 50. Why 1.6922 entry. Bottom broke at 1.6939, three supports remained at 1.6915, 1.6907 and 1.6999. Take half the distance from 1.6939 to 1.6999 and a support existed at 1.6919. Entry was off by about 20 pips as GBP/CAD traded to 1.6999. GBP/USD bottoms at 1.2969 also broke so it was a question to match GBP/USD next supports to GBP/CAD.

I realize GBP/CAD skyrocketed on CAD Retail Sales and Inflation data and many more pips were available but I didn’t take it. GBP/CAD was wide open to 1.7029 once 1.6939 broke above. Its rarely seen to have that much daylight and then price actually trades through to the upper points. The target was set and I took it.

Now have 2 lots short USD/CAD. Open targets so far.

11 trades complete in last week, 11 winners. 10 trades X 50 pips each = +500 pips but 510 to include AUD/CAD at + 10. Overall 3 longs to 8 shorts.

Sharpe Ratio on all trades = 2.29. Sharpe Ratio on long trades = 2.64. Sharpe Ratio on shorts = 2.07. AUD/CAD + 10 pips dropped the Sharpe Ratio from 2.54 to 2.07. Overall Sharpe Ratio is really terrific even 2.07 on short trades.

Higher the Sharpe Ratio then higher is ability to manage and take on risks in all trades. Ultimately, the range is about 3.00 to 1.0 . A 2.29 current Sharpe Ratio is really good. It says the trades were good. When done, I will go further and report the Sortino Ratio as well. When done I will report all trades and trade data.

The alternative measure to Sharpe Ratios is Risk to Reward Ratios. Maybe you’ve seen trade taken with 2 to 1 or 3 to 1 risk to reward. Risk to reward ratios are highly deceptive, mis applied and fails to tell the proper story to the trades. Its assumes, stops were used and placed correctly but how much profit was earned in relation to the stops. And what does Risk Reward say in relation to money management and the amount of money traded per trade based on account balances.

Something like 3 weeks remains on my time so I will continue to complete the mission. More trades will post. One factor to mention. I send 21 trades per day and those trades are separate to the trades on the present account. Its an incredible task I’m taking on but if all goes well, I will be with a really good group of traders and good guys.

Brian Twomey, Inside the Currency Market,