GBP Pairs, Vital Levels: Nov 14

 

GBP/USD. From close 1.2593, vital break points above 1.2775 and 1.2846. A run to both levels must see further point breaks at 1.2615, 1.2642 and 1.2710. A reversal if seen will occur in the area at 1.2615 and 1.2642.

Below points 1.2574, 1.2535, 1.2495, 1.2493 and 1.2456. Downtrend begins at 1.2574 and 1.2456.  Averages 5 day, 10 and 20 all participate in the driver to short term GBP moves.

Why GBP far higher is due to not just oversold but oversold at extremes. GBP reached bottoms from the 1.5400 Brexit Break. GBP remains deeply oversold. In the larger picture, GBP/USD dropped from 1.8000’s in 2008 and broke every long term average on the way down to recent 1.1900 lows. The Brexit break at 1.5400’s was just another average in the overall downtrend.  In terms of the longer averages, GBP reached its extremes at 1.1900. Despite a 700 pip run to 1.2593, GBP remains extremely oversold from the 5 year average at 1.5442, the 10 year at 1.6339, the 14 year at 1.6730 and 17 year at 1.6394. Next break points at 1.2775 and 1.2846 are minuscule to the higher potential. But the economics must follow, its key to higher GBP. Best strategy is buy dips.

GBP/JPY. From close 134.38, GBP/JPY most vital breaks occurred at 131.93 and 133.42. Both are vital breaks on the way down. Both levels currently provide solid supports. In the larger picture, GBP/JPY is on a trend just underway although current 134.38 is far overbought short term from averages 5 to 50 days. The 100 day average becomes a good sell point in the middle 135’s. Next break points above 134.29, 135.01 then 136.60. Below 133.70 is big break to see 133.42.

GBP/CHF. From close 1.2449, vital break points are located at 1.2511 and 1.2559. Those breaks achieve by 1.2474, 1.2492 and 1.2502. If reversal due to current overbought 5 to 50 day averages then watch sell at 1.2474 and 1.2492. On break of 1.2511 and 1.2559 then targets become 1.2784 and 1.2802.  levels 1.2784 and 1.2802 achieves by 1.2656, 1.2671, 1.2715, 1.2727 and 1.2758.

Below. Vital supports begin at 1.2446, 1.2438,  1.2336 and 1.2333.  Short term, GBP/CHF is overbought but its price is extremely low. Buy dips is the way.

GBP/CAD. From close 1.7048, vital supports are located at 1.6916 and 1.6876. Next big break point is 1.7511. GBP/CAD is in a trend just underway. Yet to remain trending then uptrend lines must break at 1.7157 and 1.7208. Next point breaks are 1.7062, and 1.7135. GBP/CAD 10 and 20 day averages drive current prices and both are far overbought. GBP/CAD is a wide ranging currency pair and accounts for about 75 pips per day.

Below points 1.7016 and 1.6946. Again best strategy is buy drops.

GBP/NZD. From close 1.7706, next break points 1.7777 and 1.7779. Those levels break by 1.7742 and 1.7743. If a reversal or correction is seen then 1.7742 and 1.7743 is the  perfect short location. Below points begin at 1.7707, 1.7690, 1.7636 and 1.7603. Above 1.7777 and 1.7779 then next big points are 1.8124 and 1.8348 and sees those levels by 1.7820, 1.7863 and 1.7950. GBP/NZD is the granddaddy currency pair because of its wide wide ranges and overall daily movements.

GBP/AUD. From close 1.6685, next breaks are 1.6797 and 1.6879. Next vital points are 1.6740 and 1.6780. On the downside 1.6682, 1.6672 and 1.6548.

 

Brian Twomey, Inside the Currency Market, btwomey.com and insidethecurrencymarket.com

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