AUD/USD and Cross Pairs: Nov 20

 

Best Correlations to AUD/USD are AUD/CAD at +34% and AUD/CHF at + 29%. AUD/JPY and AUD/NZD are negative at minus 44% and minus 19%. AUD/EUR lacks association at +0.05%.

AUD/USD. Among major non USD pairs, AUD/USD is most oversold, more oversold than EUR, GBP and NZD. Two big lines falling on AUD are 0.7558 and 0.7610. Top of the channel and breaks to challenge 0.7558 are 0.7520 and 0.7549. Good targets near term  to relieve severely overbought conditions are 0.7508 to 0.7518.

AUD/CHF. Trading the AUD/USD and AUD/CHF combo as in past weeks won’t work this week. AUD/CHF just broke major supports at 0.7447 and 0.7451. At 0.7391 close, oversold is seen from the 10, 20 and 50 day averages, otherwise AUD/CHF has ability to travel lower. What changes a lower trajectory is a break higher at 0.7447 and 0.7451. Oversold and buy points begin from 0.7334 to 0.7328.

AUD/CAD. From 0.9882 close, nearest and strongest support is located at 0.9626 while break points above are found at 0.9957, 1.0015 and 1.0040. AUD/CAD is a traditional risk pair barometer to overall currency markets. The big drop from 1.0300’s to current 0.9800’s is a testament to a risk off market environment since Trump’s election. Yet a 500 pip drop in AUD/CAD so far and so fast is a rare day as AUD/CAD as a risk barometer is a traditional range currency pair and rarely moves 500 pips in any period.  Any AUD/USD recovery will see AUD/CAD travel higher. Points 0.9917 and 0.9946 are targets and must break points to challenge 0.9957. Oversold buy points begin at 0.9830’s.

AUD/JPY. Strong supports are located at 79.94 and 78.35. Vital break above 85.20. To see 79.94 then 80.70 and 80.24 must break. Above and overbought begins from 81.56 to 81.79.

AUD/NZD. Vital break points above from close at 1.0458 are 1.0528 and 1.0580. AUD/NZD is severely oversold and will find its most comfortable position from 1.0531 ro 1.0540.

 

Brian Twomey, Inside the Currency Market, btwomey.com

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