EUR/USD and Cross Pairs Nov 20


Within the EUR/USD universe, problem pairs are EUR/JPY, EUR/GBP and EUR/CAD due to non uniform correlations. EUR/JPY correlations just turned minus 0.01 to EUR/USD which means EUR/JPY becomes a USD/JPY currency pair. EUR/GBP remains negative 51% to EUR/USD while GBP/EUR at + 93% aligns solidly to GBP/USD. Typical EUR/CAD’s  balanced position in currency markets holds its equivalent alignment at +45% to EUR/USD. Currency pairs EUR/AUD, EUR/CHF and EUR/NZD align perfectly at + 90%.

EUR/USD.  A  EUR/USD price at extreme oversold balances short term from 1.0810 to 1.0954. Most vital line in order for a higher EUR/USD is currently 1.0980. Must breaks to challenge 1.0980 are located at 1.0860, top channel at 1.0870 then on to 1.0909 and 1.0947 to 1.0954. EUR/USD bottoms are located at 1.0558, 1.0545, 1.0508.

EUR/JPY. Two vital points holding EUR/JPY are 116.13 and 114.35. EUR/JPY tests 116.13 on a break lower at 116.90. Overall range is 116.90 to 118.01 and 118.36. Overbought begins from 118.01 to 118.36. From 116.13, EUR/JPY remains oversold. If EUR/JPY holds USD/JPY alignments then EUR/JPY has ability to travel to 119.00’s. Currently USD/JPY is overbought.

EUR/CHF. From 1.0715 close, higher for EUR/CHF must break 1.0825 and 1.0872. Bottoms and extreme oversold are located at 1.0714 to 1.0693.  To see 1.0825 then vital points are found at 1.0756, 1.0780, 1.0789 and 1.0804. Most important break is 1.0780.

EUR/CAD. Why balanced correlations is because EUR/CAD inside its price contains big problems. From close at 1.4301, next big break  is located at 1.4366, 1.4585 and 1.4648. Below 1.3994. EUR/CAD is massively oversold and must travel higher. High 1.4400’s is a good target on break of 1.4366. Watch 1.4366 as long / short point. As I review further, higher in EUR/CAD despite oversold only adds to current price pressures. Better pairs exist than EUR/CAD and recommended to stay away.


Remaining EUR pairs will post today as well as AUD and NZD after church. A USD V EUR interest rate article will also post today for interested. Long ago was recommended to learn interest rates when I saw interest rate changes coming.


Brian Twomey, Inside the Currency Market,





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