Professional Currency Trading: Expectancy

From introductions 7 weeks ago to serious FX professional currency traders and 7 weeks of 80 + scored trades under intense statistical and FX rigor, my scores were not only good and high but I entered the rankings and qualifications  of a professional currency trader. Humbly speaking, I knew I was good but the question how good was answered. I’m astounded, elated and thrilled. More thrilling is I was accepted to become a professional trader and I will be trading for “others”. More details as time progresses. Long time friends and followers would know special thanks to my sincere friend with 43 consecutive years of FX trading and experience at high levels of corporate and bank treasury Depts.  As I’m able, scores, trades, results and deep trade details will post here soon.  From the Forex Gods, James 4;2 V James 4:3.

Part of professional trade scores fall under the concept of Expectancy. Expectancy answers 1. What is the mean of trade results, above = profit, below = loss. 2. Most important is how reliable is the trade strategy. 3. Expectancy provides profit forecasts.

4 Data Points to Expectancy. 1. Number of winning trades. 2. Number of losses. 3. Amount of money won. 4. Amount of money lost.

Net Profit = Amount of money won minus amount of money lost. My Net Profit was very high each month and overall.

Win Rate = Number of winning trades divide Total Trades. Win Rate at 75 % – 80% for 1st month dropped to about 70% ish as more trades were taken. First month = 43 winner trades. Second month = 31 winner Trades. 6 Duds trades. 1 trade was ongoing as results were tabulated. These numbers are considered very high by Fx Professionals.

Loss Rate = 1 minus win rate.

Average Winner = Money won divide Total Trades Won.

Average loser = Money lost divide by total losses.

Average Reward Divide by Risk = Average Winner Divide by Average loser.

Expectancy Forecasts.

Expectancy Per Trade = Win Rate X Average Winner Minus Loss Rate X Average Loser.


Expectancy Per Trade = Net Profit divide by Total Trades.

Expectancy Per Month ( Forecast Profits) = Expectancy Per Trade  X Average number Trades per month.

Expectancy Per Amount of Money Risked =  Net Profit divide Average loss. Answer = Answer divide by Total number of Trades.

Next Articles:  Position sizing, money management, Risk Reward, Pip Values, Pip Values Per Currency, Pip Values USD V EUR V GBP. Equity and % Risk per Trade. Here answers how to trade professionally by money management standards.


Brian Twomey, Inside the Currency Market,





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