From 1825 to 1966 and 141 years, Australia’s currency was known as AUD/GBP and its financial system was fixed to AUD/GBP because of the long standing relationship Australia shared with London’s money markets. The AUD/GBP Fix ended in 1966/ 1967 upon passage of Australia’s 1965 Currency Act. The Act mandated 2 AUD dollars were exchanged for 1 GBP.
From March 1919 to August 2014, AUD/GBP ranged from its lowest low at 0.3333 to highest high at 0.7824 for 4491 Pips and a mid point at 0.5578. Consequently, GBP/AUD ranged from lowest low to highest high from 1.2781 to 3.0003 for 17,222 pips and mid point at 2.1392.
Most vital break point for AUD/GBP to travel higher is 0.5958. Current price is 0.5926. Most vital break point for GBP/AUD below is 1.6784. AUD/GBP at 0.5958 translates to GBP/AUD at 1.6784. For GBP/AUD to travel higher from current close at 1.6874 then 1.6979 must break and it translates to AUD/GBP at 0.5889. AUD/GBP must travel lower by 37 pips while GBP/AUD to break higher must travel 105 pips.
GBP/AUD is running at about 2.81 times from AUD/GBP and fits into the 1965 Currency Act mandate. The break points from AUD/GBP at 0.5958 and GBP/AUD at 1.6784 again runs at 2.81 times. Actual 2.81 to GBP/AUD is 1.6741. Where a slight deviation to exact is due because close prices are employed. A close price is never correct and should never factor in trade decisions. The example is 37 V 105 pips because this distance runs at 2.84 times and is off kilter.
GBP/AUD points at 1.6979 and 1.6915 will dictate direction. Below points are located at 1.6777, 1.6753 and 1.6737. Below 1.6737 then floodgates open to 1.6683, 1.6659 and 1.6490. As in all GBP pairs, GBP/AUD price is extrmely low yet GBP/AUD as well is found a low low price in AUD/USD. Overall, we’re looking for GBP/AUD higher.
AUD/GBP must break 0.5925 and 0.5958 then 0.5964 and 0.5968. A break higher translates to a far lower GBP/AUD.
Brian Twomey, Inside the Currency Market, btwomey.com