EUR/USD Futures contracts expired Dec 16 and rolled into current March 17. December 15 traded 609,000 contracts for USD 3 trillion. Friday December 16 dropped to 289,000 contracts at 1.4 trillion. EUR/USD enters this day at 158,000 contracts at 794 billion and 2.3 trillion in Open Interest. 158, 000 contracts sits just above the 152,000 lows from December 17 and the 2nd lowest since November 17. Overall, the liquidity issue is just fine as always. Part of the myths of currency trading is a price may run to an unknown destination due to liquidity issues. This is a myth since every point traded is known far in advance and especially today in the world of the tightly controlled price by the central banks.
Current EUR/USD is built upon a base at 1.0118 with supports just above at 1.0219, 1.0225 and 1.0269. Today’s target is located at 1.0392, what lies just ahead is 1.0417 and 1.0423. Bottoms for today’s EUR/USD are located at 1.0320 and 1.0332. To see bottoms then EUR/USD must break 1.0351. The big line break and level driving current EUR/USD is 1.0550. A break targets 1.0665. The road to 1.0550 today is found at 1.0423, 1.0449, 1.0484.
Brian Twomey, Inside the Currency Market, btwomy.com