Why Trump nullified TPP is mainly because of the Trade Dispute Resolution and its astounding difference from the new 1995 world trade arrangement in the WTO. As a reader of the TPP document and 20 year college instructor in Political Science disciplines, I inform Trump’s decision was an easy determination. Dispute Resolution in TPP offered a new “court” that would’ve rendered the United States wholly and stunningly subservient in areas of Trade disputes. Plus the resolution process from claim to decision would’ve dragged out for years. Not that WTO is any better but what the United States doesn’t want is any worse especially trade with China because China has a 10 mile long list of trade disputes in the WTO.
The United States would’ve never won a dispute under TPP nor would the United States tend towards a positive trade balance if TPP was adopted because trade favored everybody except the United States. Any wonder why America’s Bummer went to Asia first to push TPP and any wonder why Asian nations voted overwhelmingly yes to a gift laid on their shoulders. Any wonder why TPP was not offered as a Treaty in the Senate where 67 votes were needed for passage. What we find in WTO and TPP is the disastrous roads again created by Democrats Clinton and Obummer. The last year America had a positive trade Balance was the early 1970’s and a current $500 billion deficit in trade with all partners mounted every year since the 1970’s. Smart, correct and easy move for Trump.
The commonality in currency markets for the past 2 weeks is the vast majority of pairs trading inside Neutral zones. Neutral zones inform this market not only has an uncertain direction but a 2 inch candle is on the way as it happens all the time. Those EUR and GBP reversals in the last 2 weeks were the result of neutral zone trading. A few to pairs watch and levels are EUR/USD 1.0749, GBP/USD 1.2482 , USD/JPY 112.12 and EUR/JPY 120.18.
EUR/USD. Yesterday’s range was 1.0690 and 1.0697 to 1.0889, 192 pips. Today’s range is located from 1.0887 to 1.0689, 198 pips and range increse of 6 pips. Yesterday informed EUR/USD would bounce from 1.0700’s, it bounced to reported 1.0773. Friday informed EUR/USD would bounce from 1.0628, true to form in my accuracy, EUR/USD bounced to 1.0660’s.
Bottoms today are located at 1.0694 and 1.0696 and 1.0698. Good long points but massive supports exist at 1.0708, 1.0711 and 1.0714. Look for the bounce here.
Two hurdles for EUR/USD today and good sell points above are 1.0775 and 1.0779. Both lines are solid but breaks would lead EUR to 1.0803, 1.0813 and 1.0816.
Overall bottoms from a larger perspective are located at 1.0490 and 1.0385. Both destinations achieve by breaks at 1.0689 then 1.0629, 1.0558.
Its the USD side of EUR where its found a low low price while EUR overall is top heavy and any rises would see this top heavy condition worsen. This informs EUR upside will struggle, gains won’t hold and the direction is lower EUR.
Brian Twomey, Inside the Currency Market, btwomey.com