EUR/USD: levels, Ranges, Targets

Yellen and the Fed reiterates a desire to raise Fed Funds yet in a strange dichotomy Yellen is against tax reductions. If ever a support existed to raise, tax reduction is the clear winner in a growth economy.
Meanwhile the 2 year yield hits its lowest point of the year yesterday at 1.12. The 2 year in the first week of January traded 1.22, hit highs at 1.27 Feb 15 and drifted to lows at 1.22 upon release of Fed Minutes. From 1.27 highs, the 2 year ranged from 1.12 lows to 1.22. Since Fed Minutes, the 2 year ranged from 1.12 to 1.22.
The significance to the 2 year drop is the overall ranges in short term interest rates are compressing. From 1.22 to Fed Funds, the range becomes 56 basis points and 46 basis points from 1.12. USD is the sole driver to a vast majority of currency pairs, especially EUR/USD and USD/JPY. Compress the ranges further then USD will go dead and volatility will disappear.
More importantly, currency prices are looking to USD for direction and its absent. Trump has nothing to do with this development, Yellen and the Fed are responsible. Commercial Paper rates informs the market holds zero confidence in Yellen and I agree. Most affected currency pair in the G10 is NZD/USD as current ranges are about to explode. The pressure is mounting by the day.
I warned on my blog days ago, the central bank structure in place since June 2016 is undergoing a new phase in their development. What the new structure will look like at this moment is pure speculation. For certain, changes are ahead.

EUR/USD. Yesterday’s EUR/USD hit exactly my 1.0630 point and retreated as expected. Yesterday 1.0630 is today 1.0625. Two vital points today are 1.0625 and 1.0684. The point 1.0625 is volatile. A break of 1.0625 then masses of resistance exists from 1.0629 and 1.0648.
The range for today is located from 1.0736 to 1.0544. The points at 1.0625 and 1.0695 are just average line breaks for EUR/USD to head higher. Overall range points for EUR/USD are miles away at 1.0800’s to 1.0400’s. Same scenario for USD/EUR. EUR/USD is just sloshing around.
Below 1.0544 then next comes 1.0494, 1.0474 and 1.0442.
What’s driving EUR/USD is completely USD. What’s inside the internal EUR price is absolutely nothing except pure USD. From distribution perspective, EUR/USD remains top heavy from current prices. Sell rallies.

Brian Twomey

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EUR/USD: Levels, Ranges, Targets

Trump’s Tax proposals are clear for votes in the Senate and House but most specifically Republican Senate majorities are Filibuster proof. Filibuster proof means thanks to Dirtiest Democrat Harry Reid to invoke the Nuclear Option because Republicans wouldn’t allow Dem Fed judges a vote, passage of bills and Political appointments only need a simple 51 vote majority. Previous 60 votes were required to invoke Cloture and stop a Filibuster. The Republicans are not only not changing the Nuclear Option but its a gift as the Democrats thankfully shot themselves in the foot. The Democrats received a few Federal Judges and appointments on the Labor Relations Board while Trump enjoys 4 years of simple majority votes at his disposal.
Mnuchin is “studying” taxes and might be ready for proposals by the August recess. I interpret Mnuchin as putting forth one large tax package to cover personal and corporate taxes. But he’s setting up the political system in a do or die showdown and the political system in America doesn’t work well in do or die situations. Mnuchin would be better served for markets , America and DXY if he passed smaller tax bills in quick succession. One month propose corporate taxes then individual the next month and scale down the IRS in the next bill.
The longer Republicans wait and study then the longer it will take for passage and Democrat opposition to mount. All Trump brings to the table for now is hope, promise and optimism yet passage of a tax bill in August wouldn’t filter through to the economy until minimum December 2017. On the other side of the table is the economic destruction of the Democrats while the economy and markets are held hostage against dueling ideologies. If this story was a novel, it would be a best seller but the situation is real. Historically, markets are always better and prosperous under Republicans.

EUR/USD. Today’s range 1.0702 to 1.0498. Vital points to head higher are located now at 1.0630 and 1.0685. The big point to cross and see 1.0630 is 1.0590, 1.0596 and 1.0612. A break of 1.0630 only brings rock solid resistance at 1.0647. Neither are expected to break today.
On the bottom 1.0498 will see dead stop at 1.0520, 1.0516 and 1.0512.
No range breaks in sight for EUR/USD as breaks are seen at 1.0760’s and far below at 1.0360’s. The vital point to watch in days ahead to see next 1.0400’s is 1.0503.

Brian Twomey

USD/JPY V JPY/USD: Levels, Ranges, Targets

If we hark back to first principles of currency trading then traders would understand the uniqueness yet non normality to USD/JPY. When JPY/USD moves 1 pip, this 1 pip represents generally 12 USD/JPY pips. This 12 number can however change daily, weekly and even monthly to 14 pips or 10 pips.
The number requires a daily monitor for price location, trend, range, support / resistance, central bank exchange rate management and overall central bank intent. Central banks are more active in exchange rate management today than I’ve seen in all my years therefore monitor is an imperative. An opposite example to JPY 12 is EUR/USD is currently running 1 to 1 pips in USD/EUR and quite a strange situation.
For JPY, 12 is a big move yet its not extraordinary in the life of currency pairs especially Asia pairs. It means ranges in USD/JPY are quite large and this means range breaks are far far away from current prices. This was done by design.
USD/JPY closed at 112.16 but JPY/USD closed at 0.008915 which is actually 112.17. If JPY/USD moves to 0.008916 then USD/JPY heads to 112.15 and 0.008914 then USD/JPY goes to 112.18. What drives the USD/JPY and JPY/USD relationship is the 6th decimal point in the exchange rate and this is unique compared to a vast majority of currency pairs.
If JPY/USD is viewed from 0.00891 then USD/JPY is actually 112.23 and 7 pips off from the 112.16 close. JPY/USD at 0.00892 then USD/JPY is actually 112.10 and 0.00890 then USD/JPY is 112.35. From JPY/USD 0.00890 to 0.00892, USD/JPY range is 112.10 to 112.35.
JPY/USD at 0.00854 is actually USD/JPY 117.09 and 0.00855 equates to USD/JPY 116.95 and 0.00853 factors to USD/JPY 117.23. A 1 pip difference up or down in JPY/USD calculates to 116.95 to 117.23 or 27 pips. USD/JPY then is running 14 pips down V 14 pips up against a 1 pip differential. The Odd / Even thing is maybe a topic for another day but the basics is exchange rate support and resistance in many instances run on odd and evens on many days. All Odd exchange rates will run supports and resistance points on ODD numbers and vice versa for Even days.
Note JPY/USD at 0.0085 factors to 117.64 and 0.0086 figures to 116.27 while 0.0084 equates to 119.04. Failure to factor JPY to its respective exchange rate level will result in a terribly wrong forecast.
JPY/USD at 0.008915 and many decimal places should alert traders automatically that JPY/USD as an exchange rate is born and priced in the 1600 and 1700’s from the Silver tradition because its 0.00891 price is so vastly low but Asia pairs are all derived from the Silver tradition. To Westernize JPY, the BOJ gained access to London money markets in the 1930’s by Pegging JPY/USD to GBP/JPY. Now we have GBP/JPY 139.81 as 0.007152 vs JPY/ USD at 0.00891 or 112.16 vs 139.81. USD/JPY V JPY/USD is the difference between a Silver and Gold price as Silver and Gold was the preferred method to trade exchange rates for the past 300 years.
After WW2, USD/JPY was further internationalized by the allies when USD/JPY was priced at 360.00 or 0.002777. USD/JPY at 50% point is 236.08, a further 50% at 174.12, further 143.14, further 127.65, 119.90, 116.03, 114.09 and 113.12.
What drives JPY in the modern day are Tibor and Euroyen interest rates. Tibor rates are internalized as an Onshore interest rate to Japan trading while Euroyen is the Offshore Rate. Brazil are the absolute masters in the world as they perfected Onshore v Offshore Exchange rates and its my speculation the BOJ went to the Bank of Brazil ( Bacen) to perfect the onshore V offshore scenario. But Tibor and Euroyen don’t move much anymore these days so much iteration is needed to derive a forecast.
USD/JPY break points are located 112.89 to 109.40 or 0.008858 to 0.009140. USD interest rates are dropping lately therefore USD/JPY drops are well explained. JPY/USD ranges are so wide, a range break above is located at 117.09 or 0.00854 and 107.52 or 0.00930.
USD/JPY range breaks are located at 112.83 and 111.48. The points we’re watching extraordinarily close over many many weeks is currently 113.45 and 111.90. If USD/JPY breaks 111.90 then down further she goes. A break higher at 113.45 is needed to see 115.00;s and range break point at 116.20’s. USD is the clear driver and driver to the vast majority of currency pairs. Lower interest rates then down will go USD/JPY. The break higher at 112.89 and 113.45 informs USD interest rates rose and will support a higher USD/JPY.

One point to add is exchange rates are an exact science with well known methods and formulas in place for hundreds of years.

 

Brian Twomey, Inside the Currency Market, btwomey.com

G10 Major Currency Pairs: Feb 26

Weekly ranges is a guide but not exact perfect yet its extremely close to perfect.

EUR/USD. Weekly Range 1.0693 to 1.0494. Bottom and top is dropping. If ever USD was driving a currency pair, its found in EUR/USD. Watching break points 1.0685 and 1.0636 for the week. Overall range breaks 1.0800’s to 1.0300’s. EUR/USD is top heavy means focus on downside.

AUD/USD. Weekly range 0.7713 to 0.7620, 93 pips and up from last week’s 77 pip range from 0.7630’s to 0.7701. Most vital break point above 0.7795. Watching above this week 0.7731 and below 0.7594 and channel bottom 0.7648 and 0.7639. AUD/USD price is low to Mid range, USD/AUD is mid to high.

GBP/USD Weekly Range 1.2380 to 1.2513. Watching this week 1.2431 and 1.2515. Break 1.2515 targets 1.2590’s yet 1.2590’s line should drop all this week. GBP/USD is heavily top heavy means focus on downside. USD/GBP at 0.8000’s last seen in 1984. GBP/USD 1.2202, 1.1873, 1.1280, 1.0932, 1.1200’s last seen in 1985 / 1984. Was then Plaza Accords 1985. No range break below until 1.2300’s.

NZD/USD. Weekly range 0.7258 to 0.7152. Weekly range aligns with USD/NZD at 0.7242 to 0.7155. Range breaks above 0.7240’s and 0.7250’s. Below range breaks 0.7150’s and 0.7000’s. Watching break points 0.7201, 0.7175 and 0.7123. NZD is clearly a problem currency pair because the current price Ratios are misaligned. What relieves the pressure is 0.7400;s or 0.6800’s.

 

Brian Twomey, Inside the Currency Market, btwomey.com

EUR/USD: Levels, Ranges, Targets

EUR/USD opened Sunday evening at 1.0608 and must break points were located at 1.0664 and 1.0714. Uptrend lines for higher EUR/USD were found at 1.0781 and 1.0799. Downtrend Lines for lower EUR were located at 1.0630 and 1.0547.
Today’s EUR/USD break points are now located at 1.0637 and 1.0689. Uptrend Lines begin at 1.0738 and 1.0799 while downtrend lines are located at 1.0600 and 1.0536.
EUR/USD now trades 1.0592 and 16 pips from Sunday night open. Low for the week saw EUR/USD at 1.0496, a 112 pip drop.
While 1.0637 and 1.0689 are current break points, both still represent MA break points to decide higher or lower. EUR/USD still remains far from range breaks at today’s 1.0769 and 1.0786. Both lines clash against Uptrend Lines at 1.0738 and 1.0799.
Much resistance is built into the topside beginning at 1.0614, 1.0626, 1.0632 and 1.0661. What 1.0661 informs today is a 1.0637 break won’t see 1.0689 and doubtful for 1.0637 to break and hold.
Below 1.0637 and 1.0689, range breaks aren’t seen until 1.0521, 1.0402 and 1.0385. Lower for EUR/USD today must break 1.0534 and 1.0529. Only a range break at 1.0521 would see EUR far lower.
What’s driving EUR/USD again and what’s driving all currency pairs inside respective money markets is USD because USD interest rates are the only movers in money markets. NZD, AUD, EUR and GBP interest rates remain stasis and not moving. EUR/USD at 1.0534 is clearly a USD move to see a break or hold. USD decides the fate. While currency pairs arranged as Other / USD are just trading around an average break point, USD/Other currency is also trading around and range breaks are far from current prices. USD/JPY for example is stuck between 113.46 and 111.96.
EUR/USD is not running on its own volition but rather lower USD interest rates this week allow EUR to travel lower. Yellen by her own words are doing the ECB’s work for a lower EUR.
The currency pairs most affected inside competing USD interest is AUD and NZD as both are overbought and far to high. A lower EUR/USD threatens AUD/USD 0.7795 and risks not only far higher upon a break built an unwanted development for the RBA.
As mentioned and confirmed by Bannon yesterday is the world and United States are moving towards bilateral trade deals. Provided exchange rates are acceptable.

 

Brian Twomey

EUR/USD, Yellen, USD: levels, Ranges, Targets

Why USD isn’t higher against promises of Tax reduction is because the market doesn’t trust the Republicans to come through and the market trusts Yellen and the Keynesians much less. When Obummer was tearing America apart limb by limb for 8 years, not one Republican voice was heard for fear they lose their positions under the Democrats and news media partners.
Budgets for example were passed by Congressional Resolution rather than through normal committee processes. And despite the Republicans control of budgets due to control of the House. Republicans abdicated their positions and became Democrat socialist light. Republicans control majorities in the House and Senate but they remain Democrat Socialists and only about 50 Republicans exist in Congress that can be trusted. These 50 Republicans don’t represent the current Teddy Roosevelt Republicans and their policies won’t see the light of day.
Republicans can pass Healthcare reform today but they don’t want to lose the hugh tax increases coming to the Government. Ask yourself why Healthcare reform won’t pass before April 15th and its because the tax penalties assessed on workers will come to the Government.
The Republican voice is now hidden behind or on the coat tails of Trump. The longer Trump and the Republicans hold out and not pass Tax reduction then the more opposition will come and the opportunity for tax reduction will be lost. Without Tax reduction then the remainder of promises of investments, immigration, healthcare is meaningless. We see more of the same for the next 4 years and USD goes nowhere.
Yellen and the Keynesians fear tax reduction because they lose their power and control. Short term interest rates actually dove yesterday after the Fed statement. The market informs they don’t trust Yellen to come through.
USD is fighting a triple threat, Republicans, Yellen and impending Democrat chaos. The only manner to see Tax reduction and higher USD is for Trump to come out forcefully and daily to intruct Republicans to pass Tax Reform. Trump doesn’t have weeks to dither, he has days. Pass tax reduction then the remainder of Trump’s agenda over 4 year will have a free ride to passage.
What’s driving the EUR/USD lower is Yellen and lower interest rates. The ECB doesn’t require any leg work for a lower EUR because Yellen is doing it by her own words.
EUR/USD levels today are located from 1.0507 to 1.0688. Range break above is not found until 1.0807 and below at 1.0315. EUR/USD is just wandering aimlessly with focus on slow slow downsides.
Below 1.0507 then next targets become 1.0450 and 1.0430. Th two lines we’re watching for many days are no located at 1.0644 and 1.0697. As long as EUR/USD remains below both then both lines will take EUR/USD lower over days to come.

 

Brian Twomey

Trades Feb 23

Most Important factor to exchange rates and trading is exchange rates  change faster than anyone knows what happened. This is the last day for below trades because what worked in the last few weeks is rapidly changing. Why traders come and stay is because I not only adjust but I see it coming. The few free rider guys looking for free money will gladly fail shortly and they will go broke. I’ve seen this a million times in my days. But just view fxstreet. An entire website is devoted to account destruction. Signal service after signal service is devoted to your destruction. I placed trades here for the few to understand and decide to jump on board or refrain. What materializes is the free rider types. These are exchange rates and the exchange part changes.

 

AUD/USD

Long Short Line 0.7691

Most Important 0.7639 and 0.7587

Bottom. 0.7653 and 0.7652 achieves by 0.7668 and 0.7664

Upper target 0.7720

0.7639 = Bottom channel

USD/JPY

Long Short Line 113.26

Most Important 113.34 and 111.99

Bottom. 112.69 achieves by 112.93 and 112.86

Upper target 113.73

Continuation Failure 113.52

Trend Up

 

NZD/USD

Long Short Line 0.7206

Most Important 0.7201, 0.7174 and 0.7124

Bottom. 0.7171 achieves by 0.7195 and 0.7184

Upper target 0.7220

Trend down

 

EUR/USD

Long Short Line 1.0556

Most Important 1.0644 and 1.0697

Bottom. 1.0502 achieves by 1.0534 and 1.0514

Upper target 1.0601

Trend down

 

EUR/JPY

Long Short Line 119.56

Most Important 120.60 and 119.72

Bottom. 118.94 and 118.99

Upper target 120.08

Trend down as 119.72 holds
GBP/USD

Long Short Line 1.2438

Most Important 1.2430 and 1.2514

Bottom. 1.2378 achieves by 1.2393 and 1.2384

Upper target 1.2492

Trend down

 

 

 
GBP/JPY

Long Short Line 140.87

Most Important 140.89 and 140.07

Bottom. 140.16 achieves by 140.52 and 140.33

Upper target 141.40

Trend? 140.89 Decides

AUD/USD

Long Short Line 0.7684

Most Important 0.7640 and 0.7586

Bottom 0.7645 achieves by 0.7664 and 0.7653

Upper target 0.7705, Overbought

0.7640 = Bottom channel
USD/JPY

Long Short Line 113.57

Most Important 113.22 and 112.00

Bottom. 112.98 achieves by 113.27 and 113.12

Upper target 114.05

Continuation Failure Point 113.84

Trend Up
NZD/USD

Long Short Line 0.7159

Most Important 0.7201, 0.7175 and 0.7125

Bottom. 0.7122 achieves by 0.7141 and 0.7130

Upper target 0.7193

Trend Down
EUR/USD

Long Short Line 1.0534

Most Important 1.0651 and 1.0704

Bottom. 1.0479 achieves by 1.0506 and 1.0492

upper target 1.0589

Continuation Failure Point 1.0561

Trend down

 

EUR/JPY

Long Short line 119.66

Most Important 120.53 and 119.81

Bottom. 119.04 achieves by 119.35 and 119.18

Upper target 120.18

Continuation Failure Point 119.94

Trend down below 119.81

 

GBP/USD

Long Short Line 1.2499

Most Important 1.2430 and 1.2527

Bottom. 1.2436 and 1.2439 achieves by 1.2467 and 1.2451

Upper target 1.2552

Continuation Failure Point 1.2521

Trend down

 

GBP/JPY

Long Short Line 141.96

Most Important 140.72 and 140.22

Bottom. 141.24 achieves by 141.61 and 141.43

Upper target 142.52

Continuation Failure Point 142.28

Trend Up Above 140.22

AUD/USD

Long Short Line 0.7671

Most important 0.7635 and 0.7581

Bottom. 0.7632 achieves by 0.7651 and 0.7640

Upper target 0.7702, Overbought

0.7635= bottom channel

Trend down
USD/JPY

Long Short Line 113.57

Most important 113.11 and 112.06

Bottom. 112.99 achieves by 113.28 and 113.12

Upper target 114.12

Continuation Failure Point 113.84

Trend up

 

NZD/USD

Long Short Line 0.7157

Most important 0.7200, 0.7174 and 0.7125

Bottom. 0.7119 achieves by 0.7138 and 0.7127

Upper target 0.7191

Trend down

EUR/USD

Long Short Line 1.0586

Most important 1.0656 and 1.0708

Bottom. 1.0529 achieves by 1.0547 and 1.0544

Upper target 1.0638

Continuation Failure point 1.0610

Trend down

 

EUR/JPY

Long Short Line 120.24

Most Important 120.48 and 119.91

Bottom. 119.63 achieves by 119.94 and 119.78

Upper target 120.77

Continuation Failure Point 120.52

Trend Up

 

GBP/USD

Long Short Line 1.2448

Most Important 1.2426 and 1.2521

Bottom. 1.2384 achieves by 1.2412 and 1.2399

Upper target 1.2502

Continuation Failure Point 1.2476

Trend down

 

GBP/JPY

Long Short Line 141.37

Most Important 140.55 and 140.24

Bottom. 140.66 achieves by 141.01 and 140.83

Upper target 141.88

Continuation Failure Point 141.72

Trend Up

EUR/USD and Taxes: Levels, Ranges, Targets

Trump’s mission and only focus to define not only his overall presidency but to experience real and lasting economic growth is to pass the tax plan. So important is the tax plan to economic growth, markets and DXY without passage, the economic situation will remain more of the same.
More importantly, passage of the tax plan will hopefully lead other nations to scrap their Keynesian ways and adopt their own pro growth tax plans. The House Ways and Means Committee is working overtime to place final measures on the bill. Nothing is more important to growth than this tax plan. All the regulation, healthcare, Border and immigrant proposals are nothing in comparison to taxes. Problems exists however and its why Congressional Republicans and Trump must act with all due speed to ensure passage.
Legislation in the United States was designed not to pass but Trump currently has majorities in Congress so his time is good but limited. The first problem with Tax Bill passage is Senate Republicans in Lindsey Graham, John McCain and others oppose the plans. Many Republicans in the Senate are Democrats in Republican suits.
Next problem is Democrats are organizing by the thousands and thousands to march in the street to oppose taxes. A Tax decrease limits Democrat power. Yellen’s response to implications of Tax decreases on the economy was “I don’t know” and she was allowed to answer in this manner without follow up. Yellen obviously opposes tax decreases. A Tax decrease breaks the Keynesian control on the markets and allows the Supply Side System to reign one more. Trends and volatility will be back rather than a lost meandering and reactionary price.
Last opposition is news media. Human interest story after human interest story will appear how average joe will lose X benefits from tax decreases.
Lastly, markets are in the last quadrant of the 50 year mark and this time is most important because a new period and new market environment will materialize. What happens today will define what type of period will develop. Since 1694 and the BOE establishment, new periods marked great prosperity for just about 10 years.
EUR/USD opened the week at 1.0608 and here we are at 1.0530’s. Last post mentioned two lines 1.0664 and 1.0714. As long as price remained below then EUR/USD would travel lower. EUR/USD traveled lower.
Two lines today are now located at 1.0656 and 1.0708 and EUR/USD is falling. The bottom point today is 1.0531 and a vital vital break point. The significance is 1.0656 and 1.0708 are nothing except break points in order for EUR/USD to travel higher or lower. Both represent nothing in terms of ranges. Most currency pairs are in the same predicament.
Actual range breaks below are located from 1.0460 and 1.0366 then above at 1.0713 and 1.0814. What;s above for EUR/USD on bounce above 1.0556 is 1.0590’s.
 

Brian Twomey, Inside the Currency Market, btwomey.com

AUD/USD

Long Short Line 0.7676

Most important 0.7630 and 0.7577

Bottom. 0.7637 achieves by 0.7658 and 0.7645

Upper target 0.7708 Overbought

0.7630 = Bottom Channel

USD/JPY

Long Short Line 113.23

Most important 113.01 and 111.96

Bottom. 112.65 achieves by 112.94 and 112.79

Upper target 113.79

Continuation Failure Point 113.51

Trend Up

 

NZD/USD

Long Short Line 0.7177

Most important 0.7199, 0.7179 and 0.7125

Bottom. 0.7139 achieves by 0.7156 and 0.7148

Upper target 0.7209

Trend down
EUR/USD

Long Short Line 1.0605

Most important 1.0660 and 1.0714

Bottom. 1.0549 achieves by 1.0577 and 1.0563

Upper target 1.0654

Continuation Failure Point 1.0632

Trend Down
EUR/JPY

Long Short Line 120.09

Most Important 120.42 and 119.88

Bottom. 119.48 achieves by 119.77 and 119.63

Upper target 120.58, Watch 120.42

Continuation Failure Point 120.38

Trend up
GBP/USD

Long Short Line 1.2423

Most Important 1.2423 and 1.2530

Bottom. 1.2359 achieves by 1.2391 and 1.2374

Upper target 1.2482

Continuation Failure Point 1.2451

Trend down, Watch 1.2423

GBP/JPY

Long Short Line 140.66

Most Important 140.39 and 140.22

Bottom. 139.94 achieves by 140.31 and 140.11

Upper target 141.28

Continuation Failure Point 140.91

Trend Up

 

Brian Twomey, Inside the Currency Market, btwomey.com

AUD/EUR V EUR/AUD

 

AUD/EUR is overbought, EUR/AUD is oversold. EUR/AUD Daily Tracking signal is close enough to declare outright Longs. AUD/EUR is close enough to declare shorts.

EUR/AUD Most important break points are located from 1.3764 to 1.4040. AUD/EUR break points are located at 0.7265 to 0.7122. Most important point holding up AUD/EUR is 0.7104 and translates to EUR/AUD 1.4076. We’re watching bottom channel at 0.7156  or EUR/AUD 1.3974. Both points will decide the fate to higher EUR/AUD and lower AUD/EUR.

 

Brian Twomey

AUD/USD: Levels, Ranges, Targets

 

AUD/USD. 2 vital break points this week to move higher or lower are located at 0.7623 and 0.7701. A 77 pip range. What exists at 0.7701 and 0.7623 are just break points to go higher or lower. Nothing special except break points.

Most vital to see a significant higher or lower move in AUD/USD is 0.7576 and 0.7757 and 0.7795. The points at 0.7795 and 0.7757 are both responsible to see AUD drop from previous forays into 0.7700’s. Both will be responsible again to see AUD drop. Above 0.7795 then significantly higher for AUD and explains why we saw previous drops. A break of 0.7692 targets 0.7701. But 0.7701 break won’t see 0.7757 easily, next comes 0.7705, 0.7710, 0.7714, 0.7719, 0.7738 then 0.7757. Above 0.7701, AUD will struggle higher.

Most significant bottom point is 0.7629. We’re looking at this point as our long point. A break below then caution warranted as 0.7576 vital becomes next target. To view 0.7576 further, 0.7588 is most important on the way to 0.7576. This area is a strong cluster of supports. Why strong cluster of supports is because for AUD to break 0.7576 then USD/AUD must travel higher. USD/AUD is quite high and doesn’t have much ability to travel much higher. USD/AUD is trapping AUD from moving far lower.

AUD/USD overbought is very slight.

 

Brian Twomey, Inside the Currency Market, btwomey.com

GBP/USD and Cross Pairs, Pete Haurlan

In the 1960’s, a Rocket Scientist named Pete Haurlan was busy by day to steer rock ships on course and by night a lover of stock markets. The show Wall Street Week was Pete Haurlan’s invention and first host in the 1960’s. Sherman and Miriam McClellan of McClellan Oscillator fame can thank Pete Haurlan as he found both based on a Technical Analysis contest in the 1960’s. Haurlan’s claim to fame was inventor of the Exponential Moving average but with various twists applied to stock prices. Haurlan used various Exponential Smoothing techniques to find Trends then labeled as 1% Trend, 10% Trend and 50% Trend. The best known person on Haurlan today is Tom McClellan and son to Sherman and Miriam. For more, mcoscillator.com

I replicated Haurlan’s Trends 5 years ago and applied it to my satisfaction based to currency prices. Haurlan’s 1%, 10% and 50% were employed as 1% short term, 10% intermediate and 50% long term. I combined Haurlan’s Trends as one Trend Indicator and its employed as a daily Tracking Signal. Daily Tracking Signal means an automatic daily update but never to act on the signal until a clear buy or sell signal is evident. Takes sometimes many, many months before a clear buy or sell signal materializes because its a long term Trend Indicator.

What I’m seeing from GBP is cross pairs are flashing buy signals from GBP/CHF, GBP/CAD, GBP/NZD and GBP/AUD. The reverse holds true as sell signals in CHF/GBP, CAD/GBP, NZD/GBP and AUD/GBP. The strongest signals are GBP/CHF and GBP/AUD because both are backed by buy signals in EUR/CHF and EUR/AUD. What GBP cross pairs says overall is bottoms are close and a trend higher is on the way. Where the signals lack in GBP/USD and GBP/JPY.

GBP/USD. Close 1.2405. Break points 1.2419 and 1.2529. Uptrend lines 1.2521 and 1.2624. Downtrend lines 1.2435 and 1.2317.

GBP/JPY. Close 140.05. Break points 140.18 and 140.23. Uptrend Lines 141.55, 143.19 and 143.70. Downtrend lines 138.81 and 136.75.

GBP/CHF. Close 1.2437. Break Points 1.2498 and 1.2531. Uptrend Lines 1.2577 and 1.2642. Downtrend Lines 1.2484 and 1.2355.

GBP/CAD. Close 1.6284. Break points 1.6481 and 1.6514. Uptrend Lines 1.6617 and 1.6675.  Downtrend Lines 1.6498, 1.6351 and 1.6345.

GBP/NZD. Close 1.7286. Break points 1.7434 and 1.7453. Uptrend Lines 1.7600 and 1.7627. Downtrend Lines 1.7240 and 1.7306.

GBP/AUD. Close 1.6193. Break points 1.6541 and 1.6604. Uptrend Lines 1.6723 and 1.6829. Downtrend Lines 1.6359 and 1.6378.

GBP/EUR. Close 1.1683. Break points 1.1648 and 1.1693. Uptrend Lines 1.1723 and 1.1789. Downtrend lines 1.1663 and 1.1506.

 

Brian Twomey, Inside the Currency Market, btwomey.com

 

 

 

 

EUR/USD and Cross Pairs

Break points, uptrend and downtrend points below. Take the breaks as they come and trades will be just fine. Have request, feel free

 

EUR/USD. Close 1.0608. Break points 1.0664 and 1.0714. Uptrend Lines 1.0781 and 1.0799. Downtrend lines 1.0547 and 1.0630. Above 1.0630 challenges 1.0664.

EUR/JPY. Close 119.73. Break points 119.86, 120.35 and 125.94. Uptrend lines 120.95 and 122.14. Downtrend Lines 118.77, 118.55 and 116.94.

EUR/CHF. Close 1.0642. Break points 1.0716 and 1.0730. Uptrend Lines 1.0759 and 1.0762. Downtrend lines 1.0698 and 1.0673.

EUR/CAD. Close. 1.3914. Break points 1.4030, 1.4094, 1.4180, 1.4338. Below 1.3499. Uptrend Lines 1.4223 and 1.4369. Downtrend Lines 1.3965 and 1.3991.

EUR/NZD. Close 1.4778. Break points 1.4925 and 1.4968.  Uptrend lines 1.5058 and 1.5085. Downtrend Lines. 1.4792 and 1.4850. Nervous oversold at 1.4600 and 1.4500’s. EUR/NZD is prime indicator for NZD/USD.

EUR/AUD.  Close 1.3843. Break points 1.4145, 1.4160, 1.4255. Uptrend Lines 1.4313 and 1.4379. Downtrend Lines 1.3976, 1.4130 and 1.3440.

EUR/GBP. Close 0.8559. Break points 0.8554, 0.8587. Below 0.8135.  Uptrend lines 0.8576 and 0.8694. Downtrend lines 0.8531 and 0.8481. EUR/GBP remains a true problem pair. A big big move is coming.

 

Brian Twomey, Inside the Currency Market, btwomey.com

EUR/USD, Trump and News Media

Trump Press Conference Best Line: ” I’m delivering this message to the public, thank you news media to accept my invitation to show up”. 2nd Best quip, ” I’m enjoying this”. 3rd to April Ryan: ” Can you set up a meeting with the Congressional Black Caucus, do you know them” . And the brilliance of Trump marches on in masterstroke after masterstroke.
Trump now proves he is far to smart to allow the news media to set him up, define him, place him in a box then detroy him as was the media’s common practice towards Republicans dating to the 1970’s. Trump’s message is I changed communication terms.
Deal on my terms or news organizations will fall into the back of the line. Thank you for showing up says to media “you are irrelevant”. I’m enjoying this allows Trump to take the media out of the equation unless they capitulate to the new strategy. The shell shock look on Ryan’s face revealed how effective is Trump. Best aspect is he takes the media out in front of full public view. News media in America either joins a higher sophistication or falls further into deeper irrelevancy.
Trump’s Tax proposals are beyond Pro growth strategies but rather Trump is setting up America to become an economic powerhouse. Proposals allow American company monies to repatriate home. Corporate taxes lowered to 20%. Elimination of Income taxes and revert to consumption taxes. Allow full depreciation deductions on investments in first year. Exports won’t be taxed to eliminate double taxation. The idea of ” Border Tax” and “Stimulus” are now irrelevant Keynesian terms as Trump moves expeditiously to the Supply Side equation with focus on prices. Trump is far to smart to fall into the Keynesian Trap. Passage of Tax proposals would ensure, Keynes is gone to rest peacefully.
EUR/USD. Range today 1.0590 to 1.0801 for 211 pip range. Two lines prevent EUR/USD to move higher, 1.0665 and 1.0719. Current price is below both lines. Above 1.0719 then masses of resistance exists from 1.0721 then 1.0730 to 1.0750’s. The top line in the channel today is located at 1.0774 and a must break to see 1.0801. Not likely today.
We’re looking to hit bottoms today at 1.0615.  EUR/USD hits bottoms by breaks lower at 1.0649, 1.0642, 1.0630 and 1.0626. What’s driving EUR is the USD side and its driving EUR/USD lower but painfully slow. As EUR/USD remains below 1.0665 and 1.0719 then both lines will move down with current lower prices.

 

Brian Twomey

AUD/USD

Long Short Line 0.7698

Most important 0.7625 and 0.7572

Bottom. 0.7659 achieves by 0.7678 and 0.7667

Upper target 0.7716, Caution Overbought

Longs not recommended

0.7625 = Bottom channel, break then 0.7572

Trend down

 

USD/JPY

Long Short Line 113.8

Most Important 112.91 and 111.96

Bottom. 112.81 achieves by 113.09 and 112.94

Upper target 113.80,

Continuation/ Failure Point 113.66

Trend up, 112.91 must hold

 

NZD/USD

Long Short Line 0.7194

Most Important 0.7199, 0.7180 and 0.7124

Bottom. 0.7158 achieves by 0.7176 and 0.7167

Upper target 0.7216

Trend down,
EUR/USD

Long Short Line 1.0667

Most important 1.0665 and 1.0719

Bottom. 1.0611 achieves by 1.0639 and 1.0625

Upper target 1.0719, Caution on target

Range and must breaks 1.0665 and 1.0719.

Continuation / Failure Point 1.0694

Trend down

 

EUR/JPY

Long Short Line 120.94

Most Important 120.35 and 119.83

Bottom. 120.33 achieves by 120.65 and 120.48

Upper target 121.32

Trend up, Note 120.33 V 120.35. Good long points

 

GBP/USD

Long Short Line 1.2497

Most Important 1.2419 and 1.2534

Bottom. 1.2438 achieves by 1.2469 and 1.2453

Upper target 1.2534

Must breaks 1.2419 and 1.2534. EUR/USD maybe better trade

Trend down
GBP/JPY

Long Short Line 141.69

Most Important 140.25 and 140.22

Bottom. 140.98 achieves by 141.33 and 141.15

Upper target 142.31

Continuation Failure Point 142.04

Trend Up, Note supports 140.25 and 140.22

 

Brian Twomey

 

 

Trades Feb 16

AUD/USD

Long Short Line 0.7707

Most important 0.7621 and 0.7568

Bottom. 0.7668 achieves by 0.7686 and 0.7677

Upper target 0.7721, Caution Overbought

Longs not recommended

0.7621 = Channel bottom, means break lower targets 0.7568

Target off by 1 pip.

 
USD/JPY

Long Short Line 113.91

Most Important 113.76 and 112.79

Bottom. 113.33 achieves by 113.61 and 113.47

Upper target 114.42

Continuation / Failure Point 114.18, and 113.76 = bottom channel, break lower targets 112.79

Trend Up

USD/JPY hit my point 113.47 then bounced

 

NZD/USD

Long Short Line 0.7224

Most important 0.7199, 0.7182 and 0.7124

Bottom. 0.7187 achieves by 0.7205 and 0.7196

Upper target 0.7241

Bottom channel 0.7213, means break targets cluster supports at 0.7199

Trend overall down

NZD Target off by 5 pips

 

EUR/USD

Long Short Line 1.0616

Most important 1.0669 and 1.0723

Bottom. 1.0562 achieves by 1.0589 and 1.0575

Upper target 1.0649

Continuation/ Failure Point 1.0643, Upper channel = 1.0639, break targets higher

Caution 1.0639 and above,

Trend down

EUR Target off by 6 pips.

 
EUR/JPY

Long Short Line 120.92

Most important 120.27 and 119.92

Bottom. 120.31 achieves by 120.62 and 120.46

Upper target 121.49

Continuation/ Failure Point 121.23

Trend up

Day 2, Screwy price movements

 
GBP/USD

Long Short Line 1.2467

Most important 1.2416 and 1.2537

Bottom. 1.2404 achieves by 1.2435 and 1.2419

Upper target 1.2518

1.2437 = Bottom channel, 1.2536 = Uptrend channel

Trend down, confused currency pair

GBP Target off by 5 pips.

 

GBP/JPY

Long Short line 141.99

Most important 140.23 and 140.05

Bottom. 141.28 achieves by 141.63 and 141.45

Upper target 142.54

Continuation/ Failure Point 142.37, Bottom Channel 141.61, Break lower targets 140.23

Trend up

Target hit fail point

 

Brian Twomey, Inside the Currency Market, btwomey.com

Trump, Tax Proposals and Political Violence

If Politics is driving the economic system, events on the horizon are astounding from economics to political violence. Previously mentioned was the Democrats were forming protest movements against Trump and would operate on a level never before seen in the modern day.
The day is here as Barack Obummer and the Democrats formed the OFA along with Soros and the Communist Party USA. Members are/ were well trained to cause chaos like we’ve never seen in the modern day. The purpose is to overwhelm Trump and the American Political system.
The Democrats are reverting to their old political violence ways in the South Pre Woodrow Wilson and are masters at the game of violence. When Wilson became president, he wrote a series of books which wiped clean 1830 to 1912 Democrats in political violence, Anti – Civil Rights, anti – Black, Pro Slavery, anti – Voting, pro KKK. The list is endless and its all well documented. But this is who the Democrats are and what they represent. Wilson’s books allowed the Democrats to hide their true identity by adoption of a 100 year public relations campaign to great success. As opinions replaced facts in the modern day, the Democrats became the majority party and Republicans were falsely tagged as the party of destruction and economic ruin.
The Republicans Border Tax bill first addresses the questions are taxes imposed based on company Sale or Production. The United States taxes based on production but problems occur when a product is exported and sold in another nation as the sale in other nations are taxed. American exports suffer double taxation from home and abroad. Other nations tax exports based on sale destinations and export taxes are paid to home nations. Since the US doesn’t tax based on sales, imports are not taxed and foreign products enjoy free tax reign in the US. American products manufactured in the US and destined for export under the Border Bill won’t be taxed to alleviate the double taxation dilemma. American competitevness at home and abroad would then enjoy a stunning boost to bottom lines.
Not only are Corporate Tax rates proposed at 20% but Incomes won’t any longer become subject to tax as the US system moves to a pay as you go consumption based system. Prior to Democrats passage of the Income Tax under Wilson and the 16th Amendment, the United States operated for the first 124 years of its existence based on Tariff and Consumption taxes. The Internal Revenue Service as an agency will be cut as tax forms will be the size of a post card. Under Republicans, Income tax elimination could easily become reality because Democrats can’t fight Republican proposals in the political system due to lack of votes.
Lawrence Lindsey states from 2011 to 2015, capital formation dropped 50% in the US. To reverse this disaster, Tax Deductions on investments will enjoy full depreciation deduction in the first year rather than X amount over many years.
Current tax law for vast vast amounts of American companies monies overseas owe to the US government earnings from taxes. The new tax bill would allow a one time repatriation tax to allow money to come to the United States. The proposal under favorable corporate tax treatment is company need to store money overseas would be eliminated.
Trump is setting up the United States to become a full blown economic powerhouse not seen in many decades. With Republican majorities in Congress and support of business, Trump’s rates of success is extremely high. But this success if seen will come at a price.
If successful, Trump wipes clean the Democrats love of high taxes, social programs and big government. Trump proposes to cut taxes , cut government, bring prosperity and eliminate the need for Social rescue programs. Last time the Democrats were in the wilderness was when America prospered at the time America was built from 1860 to Wilson in 1912. Trump proposes to increase Defense spending. Traditional Democrats cut Defense spending to offer social welfare programs.
While Trump offers prosperity and wipes out the Democrat Party, one can understand why the Democrats are coming hard and fast and why they resort to Political Violence.

Brian Twomey, Inside the Currency Market, btwomey.com

Trade Results Feb 15

Trades are timed and designed by time to get in and get out as seen below. Price moves outside our time, doesn’t count.

AUD/USD. Upper Target 0.7695, Dead stopped 0.7687. Overbought warning. AUD Bottom 0.7635, dead stopped at 0.7636 and bounced to 0.7668. Normal price path and operated perfectly for multiple longs and short profits.

AUD/EUR. Upper Target 0.7287, Dead stop and reverse 0.7287. Range 0.7255 to 0.7287. Normal Price path and operated perfectly for multiple longs and shorts. Problem with AUD/USD? Found right here in AUD/EUR.

USD/JPY. Upper target 114.77 on break 114.51 and 114.64. Actual Target 114.91. Violated by 4 pips. Huge market message from your central banks. Normal price Path and operated perfectly for multiple longs and shorts.

NZD/USD. High 0.7188, below vital 0.7198 but 8 pips above most important 0.7180. Traders were warned. Then Price traveled to 0.7146 and 3 pips above bottom at 0.7143. Then shot higher to 0.7170’s. Great currency pair NZD. Normal price path and operated perfectly for multiple longs and shorts.

EUR/USD.  High was 1.0574. Upper target was not applicable. Bottom 1.0527 violated by 6 pips to 1.0521 then traveled higher past my 1.0541 level to 1.0560’s. We traded to 1.0541 ish because the first 6 pips from 1.0521 was free money pips and 20 pips were locked in. Price Path was normal and operated perfectly for multiple longs and shorts. The 6 pip bottom violation and 4 pip violation at USD/JPY sends  screaming and clear messages to higher USD./JPY and Lower EUR/USD. Only need a 1 pip violation, here we had 6 and 4 pips. That;s a huge market event.

EUR/JPY . Upper Target 121.42, Saw highs 121.07, my Line first break 121.06. EUR/JPY should’ve seen at least 121.28. Bottom was 120.37 and above vital 120.19. Low was 120.71. Terrible Price Path and unusual especially for EUR/JPY as this pair hits targets perfectly day in and day out.

GBP/USD. Warned to possibly stay away as 1.2413 must break below and bottom 1.2404. Above 1.2542 most vital break yet trend lower began at 1.2440 and higher for trend up 1.2644. All knew however take 1.2413 break but don’t marry the trade because GBP/USD price path hasn’t been correct in many days. Such a great nation is the UK but such a seriously internal problem is GBP. Break of 1.2413 saw 1.2383 then bounced to 1.2422. Multiple longs and shorts inside a truly wacked currency price.

GBP/JPY. Upper target 142.92 on break at 142.88. High was 142.76 then traveled to my exact point at 141.99 and bounced to 142.40’s. Normal price Path and operated perfectly for multiple longs and shorts. Recommendation was play the short side as GBP/JPY began the day fairly overbought.

 

Brian Twomey, Inside the Currency Market, btwomey.com