Point to note in USD pairs is all USD pairs trade inside a wide margin between vital break points above and below. Its USD in currency markets without purpose or direction and its USD affecting all other currency pairs. Don’t view USD/JPY alone and think USD is all figured and factored. It doesn’t work like that as USD must be viewed in its entirety between and among other currency pairs.
USD/JPY is an outlier currency pair and falls in the same outlier category as AUD/NZD and EUR/GBP. If I continue to post all other USD/ Other Pair, I will find the same result in USD trading inside wide margins as all currency pairs are the same. I like to say the names were changed to protect the innocent. But I suspect the commentary this week ..
When the internal break points as well as uptrend and downtrend lines don’t meld together then its giant warning USD and the associated currency pair is a problem. Means stay away until the currency pair gets right or unless a trader knows exactly what they are doing and this knows what they are doing applies to a small elite category.
Further, Statistics inside the internals of USD pairs and common to all is current prices are fairly balanced. This means no dramatic moves will be seen, far higher can’t hold nor far lower. Prices will come back to balance. This tells us Yellen this week won’t rock any boats or capsize the ship. Yellen’s words and all fundamentals are found inside balanced prices, its traditional in trading markets.
What we will hear from Yellen’s Keynesian words are the same focus on fundamentals.
The positive in USD is Chief bank regulator Tarullo is gone. What an opportunity for Trump and what a gift to see the first opening to appoint a price focused Supply Sider inside the FED. As regulator, Tarullo experienced 513 bank failures since 2008 . For context, from 2000 to 2008, a total of 36 banks failed. Since Dodd – Frank, 358 banks failed. Charted banks with Assets at $300 million and above now total 1,795. In 1986, a total of 14,400 Commercial banks existed, 7,080 at 2008 August crisis and 5, 141 today. Tarullo punished banks by forcing higher Capital ratios which curtailed lending ability.
USD/CAD. Close 1.3085. Vital breaks above 1.3175 and 1.3313. Uptrend Lines 1.3126 and 1.3211 and 1.3224. Above 1.3224 then uptrend begins.
USD/CHF. Close 1.0027. Supports, 1.0000 and 0.9984. Above break 1.0058. Uptrend lines 1.0029 and 1.0159. Downtrend Lines 0.9956 and 0.9938.
USD/JPY. Close 113.19. Supports. 112.32 and 111.63. Uptrend Lines 112.79, 113.44 and 115.37. Downtrend Lines 109.80 and 109.28.
USD/NOK. Close 8.3752. Supports 8.3645, Above break point 8.4430. Uptrend Line 8.4103 and 8.5502. Downtrend Lines 8.3358 and 8.3187.
USD/SEK. Close 8.9206. Support 8.8777, Above 9.0574. Uptrend Lines 8.9436 and 9.1665. Downtrend Lines 8.8119 and 8.1150.