EUR/USD opened Sunday evening at 1.0608 and must break points were located at 1.0664 and 1.0714. Uptrend lines for higher EUR/USD were found at 1.0781 and 1.0799. Downtrend Lines for lower EUR were located at 1.0630 and 1.0547.
Today’s EUR/USD break points are now located at 1.0637 and 1.0689. Uptrend Lines begin at 1.0738 and 1.0799 while downtrend lines are located at 1.0600 and 1.0536.
EUR/USD now trades 1.0592 and 16 pips from Sunday night open. Low for the week saw EUR/USD at 1.0496, a 112 pip drop.
While 1.0637 and 1.0689 are current break points, both still represent MA break points to decide higher or lower. EUR/USD still remains far from range breaks at today’s 1.0769 and 1.0786. Both lines clash against Uptrend Lines at 1.0738 and 1.0799.
Much resistance is built into the topside beginning at 1.0614, 1.0626, 1.0632 and 1.0661. What 1.0661 informs today is a 1.0637 break won’t see 1.0689 and doubtful for 1.0637 to break and hold.
Below 1.0637 and 1.0689, range breaks aren’t seen until 1.0521, 1.0402 and 1.0385. Lower for EUR/USD today must break 1.0534 and 1.0529. Only a range break at 1.0521 would see EUR far lower.
What’s driving EUR/USD again and what’s driving all currency pairs inside respective money markets is USD because USD interest rates are the only movers in money markets. NZD, AUD, EUR and GBP interest rates remain stasis and not moving. EUR/USD at 1.0534 is clearly a USD move to see a break or hold. USD decides the fate. While currency pairs arranged as Other / USD are just trading around an average break point, USD/Other currency is also trading around and range breaks are far from current prices. USD/JPY for example is stuck between 113.46 and 111.96.
EUR/USD is not running on its own volition but rather lower USD interest rates this week allow EUR to travel lower. Yellen by her own words are doing the ECB’s work for a lower EUR.
The currency pairs most affected inside competing USD interest is AUD and NZD as both are overbought and far to high. A lower EUR/USD threatens AUD/USD 0.7795 and risks not only far higher upon a break built an unwanted development for the RBA.
As mentioned and confirmed by Bannon yesterday is the world and United States are moving towards bilateral trade deals. Provided exchange rates are acceptable.