USD/JPY began the week in ranges from 116.28 to 113.25, a 303 pip range. USD/JPY traded 114.49 to 115.21 or 72 pips. DXY traded in a dead range around 101.50. Both DXY and USD/JPY weekly are bound to Doji candles inside their dead ranges.
USD/JPY is driven exclusively by DXY. USD/JPY range breaks are located at 116.83 and 112.72, a wide 411 pip range.
DXY range breaks are located at 103.21 to 99.58, a 363 pip range. The range relationship is 411 V 363 and why the variation is due from USD/JPY is always priced above DXY and because USD/JPY must be priced to move. The daily variation is currently running about 7 pips.
Further ranges in USD/JPY V DXY from an entire assortment of range indicators reveals for this day both USD/JPY and DXY are almost dead center mid range. This means Yellen may force USD/JPY and DXY higher or lower but we will see prices won’t hold and will settle back to the center. Longer term and despite oversold USD/JPY, range indicators reveal problems ahead in upper prices especially in the 116.00’s.
For today, USD/JPY 281 pip ranges are located from 116.18 to 113.37. DXY 246 pip ranges are located from 102.63 to 100.17. Vital supports in USD/JPY are located at 114.54, 113.65 and 112.77. Lower lines at 112.77 and 113.65 are rising by the day. If DXY breaks its range at 103.21 then range becomes 103’s to 108’s. DXY break at 106’s then next rough points at 112 and 113.00’s. If USD/JPY breaks 116.00’s then its upper decks to 120’s easily.
Higher for USD/JPY at 116.00’s means breaks at 115.05, 115.16, 115.31 115.48 and 115.71. Higher for DXY to 102.63 means breaks at 101.64, 101.74, 101.86, 102.01, and 102.22.
Lower for USD/JPY means breaks at 114.54 and 113.65 then 113.25 to 113.45. Lower for DXY to 100.17 means breaks at 101.50, 101.11, 101.01, 100.90 and 80. Further down then 100.60, 100.54 and 100.22.
USD money markets screams for Yellen to raise Fed Funds. Current Fed Funds is severely overbought by 30 basis points based on price, ranges as well as long and short term averages. Does she raise to see GDP far lower.
On a raise, question is when is the next Fed Funds drop not how many more in the future. Dot plots are maximum 5 year median prices and they will show a low Fed Funds price at 0.20. To view Dot Plots is a colossal waste of time and an insult/ embarrassment to offer such a wasteful look for any that deeply calculated Fed Funds prices. Yellen words in my opinion are deeply hollow.