The S&P’s from the current close at 2357.50 contains a price built upon a solid base at 2333.06. It is this current base which allowed the S&P’s to achieve current levels. The base at 2333.06 was seen as bottoms last week twice at 2333.56 and 2331.91.
Based on daily highs and lows last week, the average high was 2360.94 and average low at 2344.82. Last week’s high was 2366.69 and low at 2331.91. The 5 day average range was 11.35 and translates to 2.27 points per day.
On a much smaller scale,”The 24 Hour Trade” from Friday to Monday’s close is the focus because the central banks around the world, to include the FED, changed their interest rate orientation.
To align an interest rate alteration is a complete overhaul to a market price because it restructures the price. As the central banks adjusted, the current trading system geared strictly to interest rates conformed to the new central bank standard. Currency trades were restructured to hours while the S&P’s, WTI, DXY and others were re vamped to 24 hours.
The S&P Bottom until Monday’s close is 2345.71. This point at 2345.71 is the long point. What’s 2345.71 is the middle range from just below at 2343.88 and above at 2349.72. Overall points to achieve bottoms are 2350.64, 2349.72 then 2345.71. Should 2345.71 break to 2343.88 then a free long trade exists to 2349.72.
The long target above is 2369.29 yet also on the radar for days ahead is 2372.40 and 2374.03. The key to the 2369.29 target is the S&P’s must break 2363.25. Failure to break 2363.25 then price will trade back to 2361.78, 2361.71, 2361.68 and 2359.51.
Why the target at 2369 is because price lies just below the next range point and most probable target in days ahead at 2382.18.
Target above is achieved by 2359.51, 2361.68, 2361.71, 2361.78, 2362.82, 2364.32, 2366.03, 2367.75 then target 2369.29. What lies ahead in next days is 2372.40 and 2374.03.
As leader of the currency and Commodity markets, DXY from current close at 100.42 sits on solid supports beginning at 100.23, 100.11 and 100.03. For “The 24 Hour Trade” from Friday close to Monday close, not only is 100.03 the last of the supports but price targets in days ahead now include 101.30 and 101.99.
The impetus for a higher DXY is the result of a solid range break point at 99.37. To understand how strong is the range break point at 99.37, DXY bottoms until Monday’s close are located at 99.91 and 99.80. This is the long point for the day yet bottoms assume 100.23, 100.11 and 100.03 breaks lower.
For 100.23 to break lower assumes Correlational opposite EUR/USD breaks higher at its most important point at 1.0680 then comes more problems for a higher EUR/USD at falling line 1.0745.
The upper target for The 24 Hour Trade” is located at 100.85. How DXY achieves 100.85 is by breaks higher at 100.45, 100.51, 100.56, 100.60, 100.63 and 100.71, 100.78 then 100.85 target.
At the target 100.85 we’re selling again to 100.63 and 100.60. The close on Monday is expected from 100.60 to 100.63.
Further to the topside at 101.30 and 101.99 in days ahead is a range break point at 101.47 will stop any further rises for the next “24 Hour Trade” to end Monday. Monday afternoon, we’ll recalculate to determine the new location for 101.47 but early assumption is 101.47 will rise because the below supports at 100.23, 100.11 and 100.03 will also track higher.
For the long trade at 100.23, target for this long is back to 100.45 and the 100.56 and 100.60 area. This again will alow DXY to close at the 100.60 point.
Overall, DXY on a daily basis lacks range and the explanation is the March change in Fed Funds Effective from a Volume Weight Mean to a Volume Weight Median. The change as the BOE explains it results in about a full point shaved off the traded interest rate market price. The BOE and Sonia as well as the RBA and OCR are both in the process to change to Volume Weight Medians.
Commodities priced in US dollars are affected because it stops DXY and commodity related price movements.
WTI last week traded from 50.85 to 47.06 for 3.79 points. The 4 and 8 week highs traded 53.76 and 54.95 while 4 and 8 week lows traded 47.09 and 47.06. Both 4 and 8 week lows were seen within the last 3 weeks. WTI’s best volatility weeks were seen at the 4 and 8 week points as 4 weeks ago 5.48 was the weekly range V 2.84 for the 8 week.
The 4 week high average is current 50.72 and 52.54 against the 8 week for a 1.82 point difference. The 4 week low average at 47.35 traded against an 8 week low at 49.90 for a difference of 2.55.
The 4 week average range is current 3.37 and 8 week at 2.64. Minus highs and lows, the overall range average is 2.40.
For “The 24 Hour Trade” from close to close, the long target is located at 51.03 but WTI could trade to the last 2 upper points at 51.12 and 51.16. Imperative to the long target is WTI must break 50.92 yet a clean break is seen at 50.95.
Two alternatives for shorts are reverse short at 51.03 and short if WTI fails at 50.92. The point at 50.92 is key to “The 24 Hour Trade”. What encourages longs and a 50.92 break is the 2 year yield is low at 1.26 and seen 3 times in March. Further, DXY sits on massive supports at 100.23, 100.14 and 100.03. On the radar for long trget in days ahead is 52.17 yet the overall interest is “The 24 Hour Trade”.
On the bottom side and the long point is to hit the cluster supports at 50.51, 50.55 and 50.63. A break of 50.51 can only see 50.35. Should the bottom at 50.51 break then a free long trade exists to target above 50.51 to 50.63 and 50.65.
Here’s trade able levels until Monday close for “The 24 Hour Trade”, 50.51, 50.63, 50.65, Then above at 50.72, 50.82, 50.88, 50.90, 92 and 95 and target at 51.03.
The close price for Monday should be right at the 50.95 vicinity.