Trump, War and 4th Quadrants

The question in regards to War and possibility to War is an aspect to not only the current 4th Quadrant but all previous wars including WW 2 were located in the 4th Quadrants. The current 4th Quadrant and the last period inside the market ending 50 year mark began perfectly in 2008 and the end date is 12 1/2 years from 2008 or 2020 but 2022 from Jan 1972’s Free Float. The difference between 2020 and 2022 is measure of half years. Most important to this reference is 4th and last Quadrant because of its predictive powers.
What is found in 4th Quadrants since the 1600’s is unusual economics or experiments, Political uncertainty, Wars and War possibilities, market volatility due to uncertain economics, politics and war events. The current 4th Quadrant is no different from WW 1 and 2, Gold booms from the 1870’s, world depressions and Currency Pegs of the 1820’s. Broken down into Quadrants, the picture is clear as history repeats.
Russia and the current ultra orthodox Shiite regime in Iran are two most important in Ruble and Iranian Rial terms. Iran is currently in 1.6% of deficit as a percentage of GDP. Revenues are Rial 368 V 211 in expenses. The Iranian Export index is down 16% over the past 12 months, Inflation is + 11% over the past 12 months, Producer and Wholesale Prices are + 4.5% and 13.3%. M1 money growth is minus 0.2%, Oil accounts for barely 3% of overall GDP and drops as oil prices decline. Iran and Russia both lost 12% in oil revenue terms due to price declines from December 2016 to present day.
Not all Oil or Oil nations are the same. Iranian oil is a special Sour blend and not employed inside many nations. Sour blends are common to Islamic Shiite nations as opposed to Light and Heavy blends predominantly used in the West. Iran’s largest customer since at least the 1970’s was Japan as Japan is dependent on Sour oil to fuel the economy.
Against US sanctions, Japan was forced to align with Shiite Gulf nations for oil imports. Against sanctions, the $400 million given by Obummer was hardly an assistance to a failing economy whose largest Exports beside Oil is Animal fats. Against sanctions and access to banking from 250 year ally Germany, Iran is hardly in a position to fight a war but Iran must yet can’t reconcile improved economic conditions V the wish for the 12th Iman to return to bring 1000 years of peace to the world. The 12th Imam comes when Chaos rules and Iran purposefully adds to chaos.
A possible war alignment in the Middle East begins with allies Russia, Iran and China. Why China is due from the 1980’s relationship with Iran in Arms and Oil exports. Why 1980’s from the Iranian side is due from the Orthodox Shiite rise to power by Revolution in 1979 when Iran’s Orthodox Shiites overthrew the prevailing start of the 1925 Shah dynasty in the Pahlavi family. The takeover was as much political and economic as much as nuclear because Shah Mohamed Reza Pahlavi began a peaceful nuclear program in the 1970’s.
The Orthodox Iranians redesigned the program and invested in nuclear bombs. China in the late 1980’s began to “open” as is ther historic practice every few hundred years and Iran had the necessary bombs and Oil to begin and protect China’s rise to economic power. China’s 5,000 year history is best viewed as a flower.
When the flower blossoms, China joins the economic world but the flower wilts when China is hurt by the world. China’s greatest historic hurt was the result of the Great Wall as they again closed its border doors. In flower terms, China will eventually close. China is careful, patient yet calculating in all decisions. China won’t start or jump into an immediate war or take proximate sides but they will watch.
Russia’s story in the 4th Quadrant role and war possibilities is the story of conquest as a 1000 year agrarian society stuck in uppermost Central Asia / Eurasia sought as their 1000 year goal to modernize.
As leader of the Slavic tradition because of Arms investments, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania were lost since the 1500’s to Sweden and Denmark, Georgia since the 1800’s, East Europe for 70 years from 1920 to 1990’s. Peter the Great was the only Russian ruler to ever fully invest time and energy into a peaceful modernization effort yet he failed.
The larger conquest prize for Russia was always Western Europe and today inroads were finally seen from the political side in France’s Marie Le Pen. Disintegration of 1949 creation of Nato is not only a national security threat to Europe but Nato’s Article 5 held western nations together in war by ” An attack against one is an attack against all.”Without Nato’s Article 5 Treaty obligations, Western nations join war by a loyalty pledge then the question to fight ability upon a greater Russia threat to Western Europe.
For Russia’s current 36 billion surplus as highlighted by Soc Gen, the more Russia resorts to war then the less is employed for economic modernization and overall improvement inside Russia. Reagan learned this maxim in the 1980’s when the arms race began and Russia was outspent therefore Russia allowed East Europe to roam freely as independent nations.
The next question is would Russia, Iran and the Shiite nation alliance wish to go against the might of the US, UK, Canada and Isreal. Add the Arab Sunni nations to this list then the power and might of the Western/ Sunni alliance becomes a powerful force yet a force not even China’s entrance can match.
By the US War Powers Act, Trump has 60 days to act in national security interests with a 30 day extension if hostilities warrant. After 90 days of war fighting, Trump must go to Congress and ask for a War Declaration. Failure to obtain a war declaration means Trump can’t any longer fire one bullet but he holds Congressional majorities.
The purpose to all this was to quickly highlight War, market, political, and economic uncertainty in 4th Quadrants. Its the same old 4th Quadrant story as has materialized over the past 400 years. The main question is will the current 50 year period from current 4th Quadrant end in war or will a peaceful transition be seen to mark the next 50 years. Once the next 1st Quadrant is seen then 12 1/2 years of peace and and prosperity will reign.

Brian Twomey

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