Brian Twomey 2012 Fxstreet: Live Trades

20 Trade Recommendations, 20 Reasons To Visit Forexstreet.net. Come And Learn With Us!

Hi everyone

At the beginning of October 2012, a new member of Forexstreet.net named Brian Twomey started blogging here at Forexstreet.net. I thought: “look another one trying to sell his stuff…. He won’t last…”. Certainly Brian had written a book and he was referring to his book at the end of each blog post he was making. Fair enough.

But then Brian decided to run an amazing exercise that turned things upside down: He decided to go for 20 trade recommendations to prove (using his own words):

1. Exchange rate targets are predictable.
2. I can hit targets based on mathematical calculations employing 8 different moving averages.
3. I can hit 20 of 20 trade targets and profit without loss.

On Brian’s words: “So far, 15 posted targets hit exactly with two additional trades for 1156? pips thereabouts. Granted, a few entries weren’t perfect yet targets hit. Constructive criticism is accepted. The operable word is constructive.
Never in my imagination did I suspect these trades would become the subject of intense debate and scrutiny. I proffer with hope that new traders would become better in their chosen craft and all would garner a greater understanding of currency pairs and price movements. I reiterate, trades offered are educational therefore please manage own risk. Targets will hit, that’s written in mathematical stone but market events may cause price deviations so must wait until prices continue their intended price path to target.

Now Brian is one of the most respected members of our community, not just for the accuracy of his calls, but for the interaction he has been having with all of us. I am not sure what the future will bring us all, but I certainly must thank Brian for his great contribution to our community.

Many of us are now better traders thanks to you.

Thanks Brian!

Read please Thank you Brian Twomey from network’s member Oasis

Francesc Riverola
President & Founder at FXstreet.com and now Community Manager at Forexstreet.net 😉

25 trades, 36 days, +2500 pips, no sleep

 

20 Trade Recommendations, 20 Reasons To Visit Forexstreet.net:
Trade Recommendation # 1 Sell EUR/USD 1.2995 to 1.2922 hit for +73 pips
Trade Recommendation # 2 Sell EUR/JPY at 104.15 to 101.71 target for 244 pip profit is in th…

Trade Recommendation #3 buy Eur/USD at 1.2891 to 1.2974 for + 83 pip

Trade Recommendation # 4 Buy EUR/USD at 1.2895 to 1.2952, target hit for + 57 pip profit.

Trade Recommendation # 5 Today Sell GBP/JPY at 127.60 to 127.02. Profit = 58 pips

Trade Recommendation # 6 EUR/USD at 1.3007 to 1.2945, profit = 62 pips

Trade Recommendation # 7 GBP/JPY  I have a 1 lot sell at 127.60 and 128.64 for my 127.02 tar…

Trade Recommendation # 8 Sell GBP/CHF at 1.5088 to 1.5034, + 54 pips

Trade Recommendation # 9 Buy EUR/USD at 1.2850 to 1.2922, + 72 pips

Trade Recommendation 10 Long EUR/USD at 1.2750 to 1.2850

Trade Recommendtion # 11 Long EUR/USD at 1.2712, Target = 1.2769, + 57 pips

Trade Recommendation # 12 Long EUR /JPY at 101.01, Target = 101.64, + 63 pips

Trade Recommendtion # 13 Long NZD/USD 0.8100  Target = 0.8153, + 53

Trade Recommendtion # 14 Sell NZD/JPY 65.83, Target= 65.05, + 78

Trade Recommendation # 15 Sell GBP/NZD at 1.9572 to Target = 1.9517, + 55

Trade Recommendation # 16 Sell USD/JPY at 81.21 Target 80.56, + 65 pips

Trade Recommendation # 17 GBP/JPY Sell 132.03 target 131.07, + 96

Trade Recommendation # 18 EUR/JPY Sell 106.87 Target 105.74 + 113

Trade Recommendation # 19 EUR/USD Sell 1.2975 Target 1.2915 +60

Trade Recommendation # 20 USD/CHF Long 0.9273 Target 0.9344 +71

For Brian’s friends in India: EUR/INR Sell 71.933. Targets = 71.341, 71.042, 70.740, 70.507, 70.4…

Views: 1108

Great tribute Francesc – and well deserved Brian x x

Comment by SSS Dev on November 27, 2012 at 6:34pm

Great stuff and nicely thought out article. Francesc. Maybe you too can post trading strategies on  eurusd more frequently/

Regards

Srinivas Devanahalli(Dev)

Comment by Christopher Bullock on November 28, 2012 at 11:35am

Great tribute Francesc,well deserved. This was remarkable feat, least of all psychologically on Brian who though it all made it to his 20 trades, can’t be over estimated what we have witnessed in my opinion well done Brian, I don’t think were be seeing anything like this again on anywhere in the near or far future, unless you feel like doing it again Brian lol,no I wouldn’t either. Of all the things I’ve seen over the years this was truly outstanding loved it Brian, atvb, Chris

Comment by Francesc Riverola on November 28, 2012 at 11:41am

well… I think that Brian’s work needed such tribute… in fact, many of you already deserve one 😉

Candlesticks, NZD, Dairy

 

Candlesticks on the 1 hour chart are wrong because prices are off. Trade on the 1 hour chart or listen to the multitudes of pseudo analysts then its a loser. If the 1 hour is off then guess what the 4 hour is further off. The 4 hour support at 1.0687 is not a bottom but the point where the downside will gain speed. But overall, 1.0687 is a meaningless level. Why? Because EUR/USD for example needs a break of 1.0706 from the 1.0724 close and not 1.0699 as the 1 hour informs. Currency prices are dynamic which is a worthless adjective to impart the concept of currency and all market prices moves in ranges.

Here’s the example, at 1.0710, EUR/USD must break 1.0705,  At 1.0705, EUR/USD must break 1.0704, The official break then is exactly 1.0704 because prices turn negative from positive.  How important is 1.0704 is because the USD/EUR break is 1.0703. Where 1.0704 is seen is the 30 minute chart. At 1.0699  from the hourly informs the wrong message and a meaningless level to the price. Further, 1.0719 is the exact point when 1.0706 turns to 1.0705. Overall from 1.0705 to 1.0719 is vital to a downside break.

The hourly candle runs from 1.0731 to 1.0699 and averages to 1.0715. What is 1.0715, yet another meaningless level. What is 1.0731 from the 1.0724 close, good chance it could break higher to 1.0760’s in normal market movements. What did the hourly or 4 hour do for the trade is it turned a trade to a possible loss. The problem overall is the trade start and stop points are measured wrong.

The weekly 1.0603 bottom again is the point where price will gain speed and here is where the stupidity stops.

Ever seen where dairy prices actually quantifies to NZD/USD, nope. How about a correlation. The effects to an auction on NZD. Dairy auction prices are based on the monthly average NZD  which means Dairy auctions contain little significance to overall NZD. Does dairy mean Farm Gate Milk prices because those prices at February’s NZD 49.40 are at highest levels since January 2015. Milk could mean Anhydrous Milk Fat, down 0.5 for the past year, Butter + 2.9, , Cheddar +6%, Lactose   + 1.2%, Rennet Cassein down 3.8%, Skim Milk Powder + 7.1 and Whole Milk Powder + 3.5%. The Milk season runs from August to April while May to July is the off period. The GDT Index since December hit highs at 1,076 NZD and lows at March 955.

The 2016 yearly average for Farm Gate Milk prices is 40.28 and NZD/USD 0.6971. The 2016 correlation is 73% and hits a brick wall at 91% and 94%.  January and February Farm Gate Milk price average is 49.59 against a current February Close at 49.40. At 49.40, NZD price should be 0.7379 while the overall range is located from 0.7198 to to 0.7560. From 40.28, NZD should be 0.7105 and range from 0.6924 to 0.7286.

From February 2017 to February 2016, the Milk price average is 42.81 against NZD/USD 0.7069. The correlation drops to 72% and 91% and 94% remain brick walls to correlations. NZD/USD based on 49.40 should be 0.7271 and ranges from 0.7197 to 0.6941. The Milk price should be 42.80 and ranges from 47.87 to 37.72. The Milk price is overbought at 49.40.

The 2015 range for Milk was 39.91 to 32.09, subtract the 32.09 outlier then the range was 35 to 39. The highest price was June at 39. The 2016 range was 33 to 49 where June began the climb higher. From Feb 2017 to Feb 2016, the range was 33 to 49, subtract the 33 outliers then the range was actual 36 to 49. The NZD range was 0.6700 to 0.7300’s. Month to month, Milk prices are extremely steady and don’t move far from its nearest average while NZD moves 100’s of pips from its nearest average.

Since 2007, NZD Farm Gate Milk prices traded and continues to trade far below USD milk prices.

A message from a trade service to subscribers to include fund managers is this week NZD prices will be determined by the Dairy auction. When the laughter ended, realization just how dangerous are these types became a reality. And none are ever called or questioned for lack of knowledge, wisdom and brains. Its scary.

 

Brian Twomey