WHY Le Pen

Michael Corleone stated it best in Godfather 3, “Just when I thought I was out, they pulled me right back in”. So back by popular demand to post trades, market stuff and features when appropriate.
The question began as why Le Pen and is a win a viable option against Macaroon. In actuality, neither candidate will bring France from its eonomic, political and social doldrums. Macaroon represents more of the same as former member of France’s left wing parties and as former Public Finance Minister. His En March Party translates to English as Move On. Mao Moved On in the Long March and began as dictator ruler. Mussollini Moved On in the March of Rome and became the dictator ruler. Yet the why Le Pen answer is found in the atrocious year after year economic data, high taxes and revolving living spaces among France’s populations. Conditions of this type explained Hitler’s rise. Is Len Pen Hitler is unknown but she allies to failed state Russia and brings unwanted trouble to all Europe is elected and if Russia intervenes.
France’s GDP as a 1 year percent is currently 0.2. Since 2012, GDP ranged from 0 to 0.2. In the 2008 crisis, GDP was minus 4%. France’s GDP is well below Germany and the whole of the Eurozone.
The Unemployment rate is currently 10.6%. Since 2012, Unemployment ranged from 10.1 to 10.6%. Since the 2008 crisis, Unemployment was 7.5% and steadily climbed to current levels. In a current population in France of 66 million, roughly 6 million persons are unemployed at 10% as opposed to 4.9 million in 2008.
The Government deficit is minus 3.45% of GDP in 2016 and 2.7% in 2015. The current Debt to GDP ratio is 96%.
Inflation is current 1.4%, minus 0.4% in 2015 and down from its highest reading at 2.7% in 2011.
Household loans as a category is interesting as the annual percent in 2014 was 2.37 and now 4.09. Charted, this rise was an enormous spike but the overall unanswered question is could borrowing mean a need to cover existing debt and expenses, loans for investments, or home purchases.
Industrial Production Flat lined since 2011 yet saw a slight rise in March, although very slight.
Services are up and above trend as opposed to previous data above which is all trending lower. Advertising and Marketing overall fell and the trend is down.
Business Inventories in the Food and Beverage space is minus 5%. The trend is down from March 2015 at +5%. Inventories overall are low yet Inventory Orders are up.
The vast majority of the 66 million population, 33 million, range in age from 20 to 59. The average male age is 39.8 and 42.5 for Females.
Business failures at 63, 159 is the highest since 12,445 in 1974 and 43,968 upon Euro introduction.
Wages as an annual Hourly average is currently 9.67 and up from 6.53 in 2001. Male remuneration is about 5 Euros higher per hour over females for positions other than Manager and Professional. Male pay is 10 to 20 Euros higher per hour over females in Manager and Professional positions. The pay deviation remained constant over many many years in France.
Wages are eliminated by taxes as 19% is charged for tax on Personal Income, Profits and Gains. Payroll taxes are 4% and 9% for property as well as Goods and Services tax. The VAT tax is 15% and 37% for Social Security. The Tax to GDP ratio is 45.5 and ranged 45.5 to 43.1 from 2001 to present day. The OECD average is 34%.
Managers and Professionals work in Urban areas while outside cities in Municipalities are employed Agriculture, industrial and manual laborers. 90% of municipalities are sparsely populated despite millions of unused dwellings built by past lefty governments to stimulate Agriculture and Industrial Production. Those dwellings are populated by previous Arab entrants to France.
The House Affordability Index is the lowest on record since the early 1970’s yet the overcrowded rate at 31% is high. Part of this explanation is the dwelling, rent and property tax.
Then the question France’s position to Germany and the UK. Does France still hold grudges from Alsace Lorraine. France and UK leaders and Diplomats hardly share the same room unless its mandatory due from the Currency Wars of the 1930’s.
Brian Twomey

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s