EUR/USD: Levels, Ranges, Targets

Trump failed twice on two executive orders to restrict Syrian refugees. The healthcare bill failed as it was designed to do for failure to eliminate taxes to government. The latest Executive Order to review funding for Sanctuary cities failed. Instead of closing government Friday, Trump caved on his build the wall policy and the funding will wait until later in the year. Two successes of the 67 Executive Orders signed by Cave man Trump was to eliminate Section 2 of Dodd Frank and the Fiduciary Rule and eliminate and/or severely reduce regulations.
The two foremost principles for Republican Party formation in 1856 was eliminate slavery and later no taxes. Immigration policy was well established in the 1920’s by law and by Republicans and it was the governing policy until a slight tweak in 1952 by passage of Mccarran / Walter. Mccarran Walter was seriously violated by the Hate group and national security threat known as the Democrat Party.
Trump’s customary “see you in court” response is again another Democrat win as the government will litigate over months and years. Cave man Trump so far is another in a long line of Republicans to not understand Democrats nor how to fight. Trump follows the rule of law while Democrats never follow laws. Trump should stand proud to close government until the Democrats capitulate on wall funding because to cut government slashes power of Democrat allies in Public Unions. Unless extremes are taken by Trump to fight Democrats then Democrats will always win.
Democrats will fight tax cuts to the bitter end and its questionable if Trump has the ability to win. The start of the Democrat fight is to introduce human stories by ordinary Americans how tax cuts will wreck their way of life. Then stories progress to Government deficits. The first stories appeal to emotions then comes the negativity of tax cuts. Cut government and deficits will lose lustre as an issue.
Traditionally, economics drove markets, today markets are politically dominated but again if Trump finds ability to fight then this lopsided conundrum will change.
EUR/USD’s French election liftoff points at today’s 1.0745 and 1.0667 are wildly overbought and hit extremes from 1.0911 to 1.0921. Averages 20 to 200 day are all overbought and the 100 day at 1.0676 is most overbought among the averages. Other indicators are flashing sell signals. EUR is heading lower.
Two sell points to watch today on a possible Draghi spike are 1.0926 and 1.0955. The USD/EUR line runs into a brick wall at 1.0926. A break would target the cluster of Resistance at 1.0955 and 1.0972. Rallies are meant to sell as EUR is heading lower over days ahead.
We’re looking at hitting bottoms at 1.0843 on breaks of 1.0871 and 1.0856. Corresponding USD/JPY needs a break at 111.14 and 111.56 for longs and shorts. A solid bottom is located at today’s 110.76 and only a break here would see USD/JPY lower. Overall for EUR/USD longs will evaluate again upon a correction with focus on 1.0745. To understand how solid is 1.0745, range breaks are located at today’s 1.0744 and 1.0727 while above breaks are found at 1.1053 and 1.1071.

 

Brian Twomey

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