NFP Stats and EUR/USD: levels, Ranges, Targets

NFP was +211. To quantify 211, Civilian Labor Force 1990 = 128 Million. In 2016, Civilian Labor Force was 162 Million.
2017 All Persons Employed =205 Million while current US Pop = 324 Million.
What’s 211,000 NFP equates to 0.00065 in relation to total population. The NFP release is a tiny number in relation to total population and total persons employed.
Unemployed persons accounted for 7.1 million while overall Employment to Population Ratio remains at 60.2%.
Current Labor Participation Rate is 62.9%, ranged from 2016 to 2017 from 62.9% to 63.0% and down from the 2007 peak at 66.4%. Highest high 66.4% to lowest low 64.4% factors from 2007 to present at 2%.
The 2016 to 2017 range factors from 62.6% to 63.0% while 2015 to 2017 factors from 62.4% to 63.0%. Since September 2015, Labor Force Participation rose steadily since 62.4.
Unemployment Rate– based on levels of civilian employment. Cyclical movements driven by Labor force and civilian employment, related to payrolls. Missing and not mentioned is government employees. Info here from new Fed 2014 models.
Thursday’s Continuing Claims data important to NFP insight because Claims data is 50,000 ranges and NFP is 50,000 ranges. Both match perfectly and can be tracked week to week.
See a Fed Funds raise / lower in this data. Interesting, NFP + or minus is so small a number month to month, it doesn’t register as important to the question of Raise Fed Funds or lower. It doesn’t even answer is monetary policy working. Not on 50,000, 100,000, 200,000.
EUR/USD Break points today, 1.1050 and 1.1110 Vs 1.0915 and 1.0856. The Macaroni French Election trade sell 1.1023 to 1.0967 worked perfectly. EUR/USD dead stopped at 1.1021. Nothing new as we do this every single day.
Yesterday’s 1.1023 is now today’s 1.1050. Currency trading like everything else in life is an exact science rather than an art. From 1.1023 to 1.1050 requires a pip adjustment and adjustments are done everyday. Sometimes much, sometimes little.
A break of 1.0915 then next comes 1.0926 and EUR should offer a decent bounce. The level at 1.0856 is just a point that will linger all week. The actual big break point to see a far lower EUR/USD is 1.0804. This 1.0804 barely moves in the last few trading days.
Today’s 1.1050 is reinforced by 1.1054 and 1.1110 is reinforced by 1.1116. This is Draghi’s way of telling us he wants short EUR/USD. Same deal is seen in all non USD pairs. The 1.1116 number is actually the big break as EUR/USD would range from 1.1116 to 1.1314 with break points at 1.1135, 1.1215 and 1.1314. On the bottom side, a break of 1.0804 then EUR/USD ranges from 1.0804 to 1.0695.
EUR/USD is severely overbought from 1.0804, 1.0695 and MA’s from 5 to 200 day yet I’m looking at EUR rises based on a faltering USD as Fed Funds as well as 2 year yields are overbought.

Brian Twomey


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