EUR/USD: Levels, Ranges, Targets

For the past 5 months, one day within the month we’ve seen USD/JPY and GBP/USD experience a breakout. True to form for this month, GBP/USD hit its vital 1.2991 and bolted almost 100 pips to 1.3043. Why the dead stop at 1.3043 is due because its a most crucial range point and as mentioned many times, range points hold far more credence in currency prices than a simple trade able level. Far more important to 1.3043 is GBP/USD hit 1.3045 and violated 1.3043 by 2 pips.
This violation even by 1 or 2 pips might seem trivial but its profound in currency prices as it normally means GBP/USD over next days will travel higher. Its a central bank market message as to how to view GBP over next days. Ask yourself, why not dead stop at 1.3043 and at the exact range point. Why the violation. I’ve seen this violation situation many many times and over a long long period. The violation warrants caution.
In the Federal Register over the past 8 years, Obummer implemented 30,000 + regulations to the point literally to regulate the number of sugars allowed in coffee, school lunch calories. Its a mouth dropping read for interested but scary as its perfectly tied to Mao’s regulatory plan under the 10 year Cultural Revolution.
Yet the Obummer story has never been told nor may ever be told because 30,000 regulations X 2 and 3 pages per regulation equates to roughly 75,000 pages to read. The plan was overwhelm the system and explains why the past 8 years experienced zero growth, zero capitalism, complete stasis. Trump’s Executive Order states 2 regulations disappear for every new regulation implemented. To undo 30,000 regulations could take years upon years and it means the Obummer effects are with us for quite some time in the future. One can understand Trump’s war on Republicans as much as Democrats because over 8 years, Republicans suffered Stockholm Syndrome and allowed Obummer to operate freely.
More important is the economic front. Regulations on Banks, Insurance, Healthcare, Coal and many other industries means the companies involved in these industries will take years to retain their normal, capitalist and profit methods. The Obummer plan to regulate Coal and even highest grades of coal, was to revert to Natural Gas to heat and operate inside all indoor structures in America. This means all newly built structures would retool to serve Natural Gas but under the strictest of regulations as Obummer retains its power and control. Its all in the Federal Register and its written clearly.
EUR/USD supports below are located at 1.0985 and 1.1037. EUR/USD remains light years overbought from its prior break points at 1.0723 and 1.0843. More closer to home, overbought as well is seen from averages 20 to 200 days. The overbought 20 day at 1.0933 corresponds to today’s 1.0985 as both share overbought status.
On the upside, resistance is far and located at today’s 1.1216 and 1.1269. The upper and lower range is found at 1.1037 to 1.1216. Today’s ranges for EUR/USD expanded widely from their normalized multi month intervals. EUR/USD among the 10 we trade daily is the only pair to experience wider ranges and I see it as attributable to yesterday’s Trump dilemma. The ECB are masters to maintain and much prefer to see shorter ranges in EUR. On the USD side is a slight compression in those ranges particularly in USD/JPY.
We’re looking for EUR to travel back to the 1.1071 area and our long point for the day. EUR/USD arrives at this point by breaks at 1.1099, 1.1085 then 1.1071.
USD/JPY for the day must cross 111.04 and 111.19 to range between 111.19 to 111.75.

Brian Twomey

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in: Logo

You are commenting using your account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s