EUR/USD: Levels, Ranges, Targets

 

 

 

EUR/USD managed today so far in the last 4 hours to dead stop 1.1192 and 1.1197. Most important is the 5 pip differential.
Dead stop at the 5 day average is due to location of the 5 day average at 1.1192. Then EUR/USD reversed.
Next EUR/USD broke the 5 day average at 1.1192 and dead stopped at 1.1197 then reversed. Why Dead stop at 1.1197 is due to a break of the current 5 day average at 1.1192 becomes 1.1197. The break point differential is 5 pips. Today EUR/USD is working on the 5 differentials.
To add further to the power of 1.1192 and 1.1197 is the 10 day average at 1.1203.
EUR/USD below the 5 day average at 1.1192 means the 10 day is located at 1.1203.
From 1.1192 to 1.1197, the 10 day is located from 1.1205 to 1.1206. To break 1.1192 means a 13 to 14 pip differential must carry EUR/USD to 1.1205 to 1.1206. How important is original 1.1203 is its just a break point as 1.1197 rules for today. But the 5 day at 1.1197 upon a break higher becomes 1.1198 and 1.1200 upon a break the 10 day becomes 1.1207 and a 9 pip differential.
The power of the 5 day at 1.1198 means a break higher then the 10 day becomes 1.1207. At 1.1200, the 5 day becomes 1.1199 and 10 day remains at 1.1207. The differential closes to 8 pips.
The next break point at 1.1202 then the 5 day becomes 1.1200 and 10 day at 1.1207. The differential closes to 7 pips. No changes from 1.1203 to 1.1205. At 1.1206 and 4 pips from 1.1202, the 5 day becomes 1.1201 and 10 day 1.1207. The differential closes to 6 pips.
Next break point at 1.1207 then the 5 day remains at 1.1201 and 10 day moves 1 pip to 1.1208, a 7 pip differential. The formal break of the 10 day is located at 1.1209 and 5 day remains at 1.1201.
At 4 am EST this morning, EUR/USD target issued at 1.1226 against caution at 1.1201. EUR/USD dead stopped at 1.1228 and reversed.
What is 1.1226. The big break point is far above at 1.1248. Why far means EUR/USD doesn’t have the power to climb to 1.1248 this morning. nor can EUR hold if 1.1248 traded on a fluke. Later, maybe but not today for 1.1248.
At 1.1226, the 5 and 10 day aligned as 1.1206 and 1.1210. At 1.1228, the 5 and 10 day aligned as 1.1206 and 1.1211.
The upside targets to the above averages for perfect alignment were 1.1177, 1.1189 and 1.1207. Out of bounds to extremes were located from 1.1222 to 1.1237. Most vital was 1.1225 above 1.1198. My target at 1.1226 violated by 2 pips while 1.1225 violated by 3 pips. If EUR travels higher, it must correct lower.
My bottomside long was located at 1.1143. From 1.1192 informed 1.1147, 1.1154 and 1.1162 would struggle to attain and hold. A break of 1.1197 and 1.1198 informed the bottomside points were literally impossible as new extremes were located from 1.1171 to 1.1180 and even 1.1184. The break of 1.1197 and 1.1198 offered new supports to take EUR/USD higher. What a difference for 5 pips.

Brian Twomey

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