GBP/USD: Levels, Ranges, Targets

 

 

GBP/USD target at 1.2952 hit the 1.2971 level then reversed to 1.2910. The significance of this move overall was a result of zero as range breaks are far from 1.2700’s to 1.3100’s. Had this move seen a range break then its a different story to impart a directional bias.
What 1.2971 represented was again an interval move between 1.2952 and 1.2990. At 1.2952 was a perfect target while 1.2971 was the interval above 1.2952. Upon the central bank structural changes last June, its an imperative now to mind the intervals as interval targets are becoming more and more common. Its dangerous to trading and particularly to target traders. The central banks reorganized the trading game. As a further example, 1.2910 was the interval between 1.2890 and 1.2924. Known in regards to 1.2924 was a significant break point for the day which meant remain short upon the break. The must know for any day are the break points.
To add to structural changes and the meaning to current Vs past moves. GBP at 8 am was located at 1.2904 and close to the bottom support at 1.2890. Took GBP 2 hours at 10 am to hit 1.2971. It then took another 2 hours for GBP to trade to 1.2910. A 4 hour trade.
Prior to the June structural changes, today’s trade was done in 2 hours and possibly shorter. We’ve done EUR trades on certain days on a 1 hour candle and walked with 70 odd pips. Against the new changes, the trade today took 4 hours. Overall, the changes slowed the speed of movements. And this applies to all central banks and all currency pairs. Some pairs are affected more than others. AUD/CAD may not see the changes by sight but EUR/JPY was deeply affected to offer a few examples.
Structural change is another topic of no interest to readers but to go further anyway. The central banks offered plenty of warnings as to what was coming therefore I had to adjust strategy in line with the various central banks. What changed was interest rates and therefore the indirect effects to the currency price, targets and intervals. The entire market changed.
Now that the day is done, all former past highs and lows, support and resistance and all the rest what traders follow doesn’t count any longer. But it depends what traders desire for their own trades. I seek perfection due to the challenge and ability to learn.
The new break points are located at 1.2894 and 1.2865 then 1.2928 and 1.2956. Range points are located at 1.3109 and 1.3162. What I’m watching below is current 1.2755 and 1.2620. Until 1.3100’s or 1.2700’s break then GBP is just range trading.
 

Brian Twomey

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GBP/USD: Levels, Ranges, Targets

 

On paper, GBP/USD ranges appear wide but deception reigns inside GBP. Its a fake news story. While money market traders have a field day trading interest rates, its done at the expense of GBP movements. If GBP triggers don’t materialize on any given day, GBP is not moving and it doesn’t matter what happens within the given day’s trade. GBP is locked down tight. Blame the movements on anything that comes to mind but its never correct. A terrorist attack hardly saw GBP move.
Yields in EUR and JPY are frequently mentioned but never for GBP because UK yields are offered every year from 1 to 30 years. UK even offers a 15 year yield between the 10 an 20. Nobody has a clue what yields to follow. Logical consistency is gonzo from the market people.
In the past 12 hours, GBP ranged from 1.2887 to 1.2921 for 34 pips while the previous 12 hours saw a 42 pip movement. In 24 hours, GBP ranged 50 pips. In the previous 24 hours, GBP ranged 52 pips and broken down by 52 and 49 pips in the 12 hour periods. Without the 1.2950 spike, GBP’s range would’ve recorded far less.
In comparison, EUR/USD drops 58 pips today while GBP roams 27 pips, half the distance to EUR. GBP ranges should be running easily in the vicinity of 70 pips per day and the movements should perform far better than EUR. In days long gone, GBP was always the king of movements but then dimensions were added to money markets to stop GBP.
Overall the 1.3200 line descends on GBP but its a slow mover due to interest rate traders ability to lock down the system. The lines to view in the short term are today’s 1.3105 and 1.3158. Both change by the day but its the vicinity that counts.
Today’s target on the upside is 1.2952 upon a break of 1.2924. Above 1.2952 then GBP heads to not expected 1.2971 and 1.2990. Then always what I call a Fail safe reverse point is issued and traded everyday for all our 10 currency pairs.
On the bottom side, 1.2890 break then 1.2861 comes next followed by 1.2858 and 1.2842. Don’t look for 42 today.
In the larger GBP picture, 1.2753 and 1.2622 are vital supports, Break here then far lower for GBP. Overall, GBP like its brother EUR should consist of a sell rally strategy.

Brian Twomey