GBP/USD: Levels, Ranges, Targets


On paper, GBP/USD ranges appear wide but deception reigns inside GBP. Its a fake news story. While money market traders have a field day trading interest rates, its done at the expense of GBP movements. If GBP triggers don’t materialize on any given day, GBP is not moving and it doesn’t matter what happens within the given day’s trade. GBP is locked down tight. Blame the movements on anything that comes to mind but its never correct. A terrorist attack hardly saw GBP move.
Yields in EUR and JPY are frequently mentioned but never for GBP because UK yields are offered every year from 1 to 30 years. UK even offers a 15 year yield between the 10 an 20. Nobody has a clue what yields to follow. Logical consistency is gonzo from the market people.
In the past 12 hours, GBP ranged from 1.2887 to 1.2921 for 34 pips while the previous 12 hours saw a 42 pip movement. In 24 hours, GBP ranged 50 pips. In the previous 24 hours, GBP ranged 52 pips and broken down by 52 and 49 pips in the 12 hour periods. Without the 1.2950 spike, GBP’s range would’ve recorded far less.
In comparison, EUR/USD drops 58 pips today while GBP roams 27 pips, half the distance to EUR. GBP ranges should be running easily in the vicinity of 70 pips per day and the movements should perform far better than EUR. In days long gone, GBP was always the king of movements but then dimensions were added to money markets to stop GBP.
Overall the 1.3200 line descends on GBP but its a slow mover due to interest rate traders ability to lock down the system. The lines to view in the short term are today’s 1.3105 and 1.3158. Both change by the day but its the vicinity that counts.
Today’s target on the upside is 1.2952 upon a break of 1.2924. Above 1.2952 then GBP heads to not expected 1.2971 and 1.2990. Then always what I call a Fail safe reverse point is issued and traded everyday for all our 10 currency pairs.
On the bottom side, 1.2890 break then 1.2861 comes next followed by 1.2858 and 1.2842. Don’t look for 42 today.
In the larger GBP picture, 1.2753 and 1.2622 are vital supports, Break here then far lower for GBP. Overall, GBP like its brother EUR should consist of a sell rally strategy.

Brian Twomey



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