Weekly AUD/USD and Cross Pairs


AUD/USD. Supports 0.7540 and 0.7495. Extremes above 0.7608, 0.7610 and 0.7622. Below 0.7488, 0.7334.

AUD/JPY. Resistance 83.42, 84.37, 85.71. Above to extremes 83.76, 84.03 and 84.26. Below 81.37, 81.32 and 81.23.

AUD/CHF. Resistance 0.7371 and 0.7500. Above 0.7378 to 0.7389. Below 0.7147, 0.7126 and 0.7098.

The smart trade with AUD/USD is AUD/CHF and AUD/EUR.

AUD/CAD Supports 1.0135 and 1.0086. Supports stair step to 9500 and below. Break 1.0135 then 1.0247, 1.0253 and 1.0283. Below 1.0013, 0.9913, 0.9910 and 0.9893.

AUD/NZD. Resistance 1.0592 and 1.0751. Above 1.0543 and 1.0574. Below 1.0387, 1.0364 and 1.0267.


Brian Twomey

Weekly GBP/USD and Cross Pairs: Levels, Ranges, Targets


As GBP/USD’s election drop saw a break at 1.2751 support to now range between 1.2751 and 1.2635, GBP cross pairs became equally affected . GBP/USD trading between vital resistance and support means most widely traded cross pairs GBP/CAD, GBP/AUD and GBP/CHF also trade between vital support and resistance levels. GBP/JPY and GBP/NZD trade far below vital resistance.

What drives GBP/USD prices are averages 5 to 50 day and all are currently oversold. GBP/CAD and GBP/AUD are equally oversold and driven by 5 to 50 day averages while GBP/JPY and GBP/NZD movers are 5 to 200 day averages. GBP/CHF is the outlier as its price is not only severely oversold but current price is located below averages 5 to 253 days. Ironic for medium term mover in the GBP universe GBP/CHF would result from the election drop to become most oversold and to offer best movements. Normally and in order, GBP/NZD, GBP/CAD, GBP/AUD then GBP/JPY offer best volatility on any given day or week.

Inside GBP averages as opposed to EUR is potential against ability to move and to see good volatility for the week. The obvious reason for range ability is the result of both the averages themselves as well as the possibility of the 4th ever Hung Parliament since the elections of 1910. The last Hung Parliament was 2010, 1974 then 1929. The examples are few yet the modern day examples were slated to always become few with passage of the 2011 Fixed Term Parliament Act to hold elections within a 5 year term with ability to call Snap elections anytime. Theresa May had plenty of time on her term to call a Snap Election. All past Hung Parliaments involved a Tory victory against formation of governments with Liberal Democrats. Today appears to be the same phenomenon.

Offered below are GBP/USD and cross pair ranges for the week as well as significant support and resistance points. Tops and bottoms are buy and sell levels while support / resistance points are must breaks to see a more significant move.
GBP/USD Supports are located at 1.2751 and 1.2635. Most extreme prices for the week are located from 1.3030, 1.3064 and 1.3098. The range point is located at 1.3200 therefore 1.2700’s to 1.3200 will hold. Below prices are located at 1.2712, 1.2702, 1.2698 and 1.2675. Bottom prices reveal 1.2635 will hold.

GBP/JPY resistance above is located at 141.35 and 141.91. Upper extremes are found from 144.17 and 144.77. Below begins 139.58, 139.16 and 139.58. GBP/JPY current is well balanced and at the 140 close, GBP/JPY trades below at range bottoms.
GBP/CHF at oversold 1.2300’s meets resistance at 1.2537 and 1.2564. A break of 1.2564 drives GBP/CHF to 1.2607, 1.2629 and 1.2756. At 1.2756 is hardly expected for the week nor anytime soon. Below GBP/CHF will dead stop at 1.2311, 1.2289 and 1.2276.

GBP/CAD is caught between 1.7163 and 1.6988. Oversold, low price and wide ranging GBP/CAD can travel to 1.7610, 1.7678 and 1.7693 before extreme overbought begins. Upper targets are located from 1.7282 to 1.7325. Below prices struggle from 1.7100, 1.7084 and 1.7033.

GBP/NZD is oversold and resistance is located at 1.8019 and 1.8021. A break of 1.8021 then targets to upper extremes are found at 1.8355 and 1.8436. Below price struggles are found at 1.7568 and 1.7509. GBP/NZD remains the granddaddy mover among all currency pairs.

GBP/AUD is oversold and caught between 1.7015 and 1.6763. Above overbought begins at 1.7503 and 1.7638. Below 1.6884, 1.6798 and 1.6765. At 1.6763 will hold as GBP/AUD is at bottoms of its current ranges.

Brian Twomey

Weekly EUR/USD and Cross Pairs: Levels, Ranges, Targets

The common theme in EUR/USD and cross pairs since June 1 is trading quick and short term moves at the 5 and 10 day averages. Overbought / oversold to extremes last week were found from 1.1290’s to 1.1140’s and EUR traded actual from 1.1280’s to 1.1160’s for a 120 pip week. Short term averages lack range therefore ability to move before overbought / oversold severely restricts upward or downward momentum. The result is a dead range trade rather than a trend. The further common theme for this week in EUR, GBP and AUD is participation from the 20 day average yet the overall effects to weekly prices is zero to minimal as the 20 day average lacks any range difference to its 5 and 10 day counterparts.

EUR/USD range indicators reveal a 1.8% variation and confirms not only dead ranges but a low low EUR price overall. EUR is fast approaching bottoms but fighting against EUR and a further explanation to dead ranges is the economic uncertainty derived from both Europe and USD. Is USD economics equally as bad as Europe is unknown. The Fed’s high balance sheet against a desired rise in a severely overbought Fed Funds rate is equivalent to insertion of round object into the square. Then comes the cross pairs.

The cross pairs most affected by EUR/USD are EUR/CHF, EUR/CAD and EUR/GBP. The EUR/GBP price is to high, EUR/CAD to low and EUR/CHF contains severe range problems as its price by SNB standards is always priced below EUR/USD. Higher relieves the pressure in EUR/CHF but then its price becomes overbought. EUR/CAD’s price is most lowest to its counterparts.

The cross pairs not as affected by EUR/USD due to wide ranges by central bank design are EUR/JPY, EUR/NZD and a favorite in EUR/AUD. Most affected means wider allowable movements to its shorter term averages. EUR/AUD by far offers the best trade opportunity for the week.

Offered below are EUR/USD and cross pair ranges for the week as well as significant support and resistance points. Tops and bottoms are buy and sell levels while support / Resistance points are must breaks to see a more significant move.
EUR/USD supports are located at rising 1.1014 and 1.0837. Sell points are located from 1.1281 to 1.1295 while longs are found from 1.1147 to 1.1163. Current EUR/USD is oversold.

EUR/JPY supports are located at 122.56 and 121.23 then above at 126.91 and 128.15. Solid below is 121.23 as bottoms and longs for the week are located at 122.10 and 121.90. Shorts and long targets are located from 125.06, 125.50 and 125.95. At 125.95 is not expected but offered in case Yellen Wednesday offers a non expected statement quip.

EUR/CHF supports are located from 1.0827 and 1.0774. How solid are supports is measured against bottom extreme prices at 1.0807 and 1.0712. Above long targets and reversals are located from 1.0933 to 1.0963 and Wednesday from 1.1005 to 1.1039. Above 1.0963 is not expected.

EUR/CAD supports are located from 1.4825 then 1.4582 and 1.4569. Further supports are located at 1.4322 and 1.4123. How solid is 1.4800 is again measured by extremes below at 1.5004, 1.4991 and 1.4978. Above oversold EUR/CAD will struggle at 1.5220, 1.5254 and 1.5268.

EUR/NZD supports are located at 1.5453 Vs resistance points at 1.5564 and 1.5899. A break of 1.5453 takes EUR/NZD to extremes from 1.5348 to 1.5361 and 1.5369. Overall, EUR/NZD’s price is well balanced.

EUR/AUD supports are located at 1.4697 and 1.4376 Vs above at 1.4898. EUR/AUD will severely struggle to head lower from 1.4664 and 1.4684. EUR/AUD’s price is low yet above dead stops will be seen at 1.5289 and 1.5302. Ranges are wide and mny opportunities exist.

EUR/GBP is least favored as it lacks range, is overbought and its price is to high. Despite the technical short reasons, EUR/GBP is just not making downside progress over last weeks. Supports are located 0.8637 and 0.8577. Above EUR/GBP will find much resistance at 0.8806, 0.8816 and 0.8821. A Yellen fluke could see EUR/GBP hit the Stratosphere at 0.8867 but not expected. Below points include 0.8626, 0.8611 and 0.8578. The support at 0.8578 will hold and 0.8637 will be key for the week.

Brian Twomey  Trade Signals daily and weekly available for interested,