GBP/USD’s position is at the day’s low of lows at 1.2723 while EUR/USD faces a break line at 1.1191 and most important at 1.1178. AUD and NZD are located at the day’s upper break points at 0.7592 and 0.7261. USD/JPY remains solid at 109.95 and 109.46 but approaches its break line at 110.57 and 110.65. USD/CHf will see its cap at 0.9728.
Today’s market is treacherous as all pairs are contained within about a 40 pip range to its vital upper or lower break points. USD yields reveal Yellen doesn’t raise while interest rates are on the edge. My analysis remains the same since last August, don’t dare raise as Fed Funds is not only overbought by light years but trading at the 10 year monthly average doesn’t warrant a raise. Nor does economics warrant a raise. If Yellen raises anyway, then Fed Funds reversals will come later. I argued against the last raise due to overbought but Yellen hiked anyway. Then what des a raise mean for GBP and Europe. My guess without running the data is deeply oversold interest rates.
AUD/USD is most tough among the pairs as AUD ontains severe range problems. Supports are located at 0.7535 then comes 0.7529 and 0.7516. Above line break today is 0.7592. Problem with shorts is 0.7578 and 0.7573 must break then rising 0.7535. Yet above to lower 0.7600’s, AUD can’t handle such richter scale levels. Higher for AUD relieves the enormous range pressures but 0.7791 is falling by the day. Bad position for AUD. View my blog for all AUD pairs for the week.
NZD/USD Broke 0.7230 and remains the break line to travel lower. Overbought NZD will see a dead stop at 0.7262. The line to cross below is 0.7209 to target another tough line at 0.7199.
EUR/USD is another pair that can’t handle the upper decks. The big line break is located at 1.1261 but 1.1270 and 1.1280’s will see a brick wall. Below 1.1191 and 1.1178 are big breaks and oversold. Don’t expect breaks down here.
GBP/USD must breaks above are located at 1.2743, 1.2777 then 1.2802 and 1.2832. GBP contains good range and abilities to move today.
EUR/JPY. Watch 123.91 and 123.91 big breaks to target 124.26 then 124.59. The downside is wide open to 123.83. Overall break points to see far lower are located at 122.51 then 121.34.