NFP and G10 Trades: Levels, Ranges, Targets

 

50 year period ends, by crash or new market formations such as Bretton Woods in 1944, always experience since 1694 the greatest prosperity and boom times to remain at least 10 years. The window from start to end is 12 1/2 years. Prosperity is all encompasing as everybody on the planet prospers, markets trend nicely, threat of wars are gone and peace reigns. Current economic experiments by central banks supposed to fail in this last period. But it brings renewal later. Now is time to watch Gold trades over the long haul. A recommended read for market methodologies is the great investor from yesterday, Barnard Baruch. He knew periods as well as Gann. But periods are biblical from 49 years.

What the relationship in EUR/USD, EUR/JPY and USD/JPY informs is predictions for when crashes will occur, when prosperity begins and it predicts every market price on the planet from stock markets to bonds to currencies, interest rates. Its the all encompassing insight to world markets.

And again Non Farm Payrolls Range is 50,000, established in 1939 when the release began. Certain months maybe 49,000 or even 51,000 but 50,000 is solid. NFP inside the 50,000 interval then prices range. Outside then bottoms and tops break. Today’s number is 179,000 so range is 129,000 to 229,000. Range trades mean long bottoms and sell tops comfortably. Sadly, amongst all the analyst, nobody will enter the required data to forecast NFP correctly. Its easily by now 1000 numbers then calculations. Forget weekly hours or average earnings as those numbers haven’t moved in 78 years of Non Farm.

EUR/USD is miles overbought from averages 20 to 253 day. EUR/USD price currently is not only far to high but its setting up for the big fall. Its the range indicators to inform EUR/USD heads lower but overbought averages agree. Inside Current EUR/USD price is lost. Statistically, its called randomness. It can’t handle much higher. Its the opposite effect to recently reported AUD. AUD had to climb to relieve the range pressures. Same principle to EUR/USD but in the opposite direction. EUR/USD contains far more range movements than AUD so it didn’t take much higher for AUD to see normalcy again. EUR/USD can travel a bit more than AUD so it achieves overbought for days at times.

Here’s trades and again daily trades as the central banks trade the exact same levels, ranges and targets.

Big break line above is 1.1457. Watch the break below at 1.1373 then the bottom at 1.1357.

AUD/USD. Sits at dead center neutral. The big break line below is located at 0.7562 and 0.7534. Break here then far lower for AUD. Above overbought begins at 0.7618 then travels to scary overbought at 0.7634. Any price is this area is open game for shorts.

NZD/USD as the market signal pair sits in the same predicament as AUD. Big break lines are located at 0.7237 and 0.7178 then 0.7061. Range indicators reveal sell signals are here so sell tops.

Remember the British Tradition statement for currency pairs. Check out the most miserable currency pair on the planet to define its follow of the British tradition. What’s the British tradition, build supports and resistance levels to contain movements. The BOE are masters at containment. Its why EUR/USD is a far better currency pair to trade because its pure and movements are allowed.

Range break today 0.9746, big break line at 0.9770 then 0.9842. Today’s levels working down, 0.9655, 0.9647, 0.9624 then 0.9597. USD/CHF is far oversold so despite its contained disaster, long bottoms.

USD/JPY topside is located at 113.88, 114.32 and 114.77. Below 113.30.

EUR/JPY breaks above 130.18, 130.31, 130.62 and 130.94. Below Watch 129.18.

Poorly constructed GBP/USD at 1.2946 and 1.2975 defines either 1.2896 or 1.3026. The British way and here to remain forever without change. Money market traders have a field day while the exchange rate remains contained.

GBP/JPY. 146.65 or 147.23 defines either 147.23, and 147.56 or 145.28 and 144.99. GBP/JPY is far overbought while GBP/USD is dead neutral like its British cousins AUD and NZD.

 

Brian Twomey

 

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