Long time friends and followers know the story. Offered are the most significant break points for each currency pair and breaks result in about a 200 pip move in 1 to 3 days. The break points are perfectly calculated from my Moving Average system and backed by more Statistics than anyone would need to inform a trade decision. I simply backed Statistics against further Statistics to ensure never to be wrong. WE’ll start with AUD/USD and AUD Cross pairs.
AUD/USD. Significant break points 0.7563 and 0.7533 Vs above 0.7790. The level at 0.7790 is an MA dating to January 1999.
Overbought begins at 0.7619 then 0.7626 and AUD is done at 0.7635 to 0.7649. The bottom must break 0.7592 to challenge 0.7563 and 0.7633. AUD at extremes are located below at 0.7538 and 0.7518. Above extremes begin at 0.7682 to 0.7720. The averages are fairly neutral at the zero bound and explains the wide variation to extremes. Focus for trades overall remains on the downside as I see an eventual break at 0.7563 and 0.7533.
Economically, AUD is holding its own as GDP over the past 4 years remains solid at the 2.0 to 2.5% range while Inflation also remains steady at 2.1% inside a 2 to 3% range. GDP reported as Real Gross Domestic Product and annual percentages. Australia remains challenged however in overheated Housing markets, low wage growth and employment. The RBA has easy ability to lower OCR from current 1.50 yet I don’t see the RBA using the hammer approach by a 1/4 point drop. A drop to 1.40 possibly but it doesn’t appear from the July 4 statement OCR changes are warranted yet.
The RBA under the expert tutelage of Philip Lowe remains in the process to revamp its interest rates as was done by many central banks over the past year. Lowe is quite able as well as Guy Debelle to lead the RBA and Australia.
Australia commodities to watch, Iron Ore, Coking Coal and Natural Gas. Never forget Australia’s traditional Wool industry and exports.
AUD/JPY. Break points 89.07, Vs 86.18, 85.74 and 84.95. Currently overbought and Range Indicators currently issue an outright sell signal. Normally AUD/JPY and AUD/USD share negative correlations. A long in AUD/USD is a short in AUD/JPY and vice versa.
AUD/CHF. Same pair as AUD/USD and same movements. AUD/CHF and AUD/USD allows a double trade. Break points are located at 0.7413 and 0.7387. AUD/CHF overall is neutral and coincides with AUD/USD.
AUD/CAD. Severely oversold and range indicators agree with an outright long. Longs are confirmed by NZD/CAD’s oversold condition. Break points 0.9911, 0.9986, 1.0096 Vs 0.9682 and 0.9527.
AUD/NZD. Break points 1.0535 and 1.0667. Oversold but not by much. Range indicators offer an outright long.
AUD/EUR. The best pair for AUD/USD direction. Break points 0.6796, 0.6803 and 0.6846 Vs 0.6578. Currently oversold. Translates to EUR/AUD at 1.4714, 1.4699, 1.4607 and 1.5202. EUR/AUD break points: 1.4720, 1.4890 and 1.5389 Vs 1.4616.