USD GDP and EUR/USD: Levels, Ranges, Targets

GDP at 2.6 expected Vs 1.4 last contains miles of distance. The location at 2.6 bumps dead against the 7 year average at 2.68 then the 8 year at 2.77. The top point and must break in the averages overall is 2.77 then GDP is set to move higher in quarters ahead. The averages are low, supportive and set for a significant rise. A 2.6 GDP and failure to break 2.77 then GDP will fall in the 3rd quarter because the location at the 7 and 8 year average is to high. Yet the fall will be short as GDP should see lower lows as time progresses.

To achieve 2.6, breaks must be seen at 1.95, 2.07, 2.15, 2.23, 2.47 then 2.68. The path to 2.6 for this quarter contains many and strong resistance points. GDP must break at least 1.95 then a good shot exists to see higher GDP in next quarters.

My targets on the low end are 1.62 and 1.75. On the higher end, targets are located at 2.50, 2.51 and 2.55. This higher end forecast assumes breaks at 2.25 and 2.30.

The 1.4 last is extremely low and oversold in relation to the overall averages therefore, GDP should travel higher. And travel higher means EUR/USD lower. I would also consider shorts in AUD/USD because its current price is wildly overbought and ranges opened much wider to allow a greater distance to travel. On the USD long side, I would consider USD/CAD because its ranges are naturally built in to travel.

 

Brian Twomey

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