G10 and NFP: levels, Ranges, Targets

Non Farm Payrolls at 201 was against many resistance points from 200 to 214. The break at 214 was a must to see 226. Non Farm at 201 broke the 1 and 2 year monthly averages as well as the 7 and 6 year monthly averages. At 201, it cleared the 6 year average at 200.83. From 183 expected, Non farm rose by 18,000 jobs yet lower than July’s 222.

Non farm at 201 performed as expected by the averages. At 201, it broke the 1 year and went to the 6 year and this move is highly normal from month to month. The big break was 226 and this point failed. Overall, NFP averages remain extraordinarily good for higher job gains over the months ahead. Again, 300,000 is easily achievable. The averages now reshuffle to form new targets for next month. No difference between a currency price Target and NFP target as both are the same creatures and driven by averages.

GBP/USD. Overall, Big break lines below are located at 1.2932 and 1.2906 then far lower for GBP. Slightly overbought from 1.2906 and overall nothing special regarding 1.2632. Nothing special regarding GBP overall as it needs input for further direction.

GBP today awaits breaks at either 1.3046 or 1.3065. Below 1.3046 targets, 1.3023, 1.3006 and a rock solid line at 1.2990. Above 1.3065 targets 1.3090’s and 1.3080’s. The big line break is located at 1.3122.

AUD/USD. Big line breaks above are located at 0.8038, 0.8170 and 0.8224. Below breaks are located at 0.7894, 0.7814 , 0.7791 and 0.7767. AUD as usual is in a rough location driven by uncertainties in the Majors currency price and more uncertain monetary policies.

Long points for today are located from 0.7894 to 0.7909 while shorts are found at 0.7974 against rough resistance at 0.7960 and 0.7966.

EUR/USD big break lines for today are located at 1.1826 and 1.1753. Big break line overall is located at 1.1406. EUR contains a serious range problem which means current price must move and short is the way. EUR/USD range problem is suspected to derive from EUR/JPY.

EUR/JPY is out of kilter in its price location as it trades far above EUR/USD and USD/JPY on a 1 year basis. USD/JPY is the problem as it must rise or EUR/JPY must travel far lower. The prevention higher for EUR/JPYis explained by resistance points built into its price daily for last few months. They want EUR/JPY lower. Solid supports overall are located at 127.84, 127.56 and 127.34.

Above for today, rough areas at 130.80’s and 130.90’s. Long points for today are located at 129.84 to 130.17.
USD/JPY. Wide territory exists from break points at 110.83 to 111.80. Not much changed in USD/JPY over the last week. Bottoms remain supportive at 110.19 and 110.12.
Brian Twomey


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