USD/JPY MA’s: Levels, Ranges, Targets

USD/JPY longer term averages from the 4178 day to 4787 crossed above shorter averages from 1360 day to 2643 day. The longer term averages sit from 105 to 106’s.  From USD/JPY’s close at 107.82, the 5 year average provides next support at 1017.10 then the 4787 day at 106.50, 106.26 at the 4689 day and 106.07 at the 4432 day. Only on a break of 106.07 is USD/JPY cleared for 105.67 and 105.42.

To understand the massive and many clusters of supports from 107.10 to 106.00’s is the 18 year mid point  location at 105.67. The location at 105.67 coincides to the 4178 day average. Viewed from the 113.29 highs to 107.10 lows, the mid point above is found at 110.19. USD/JPY is currently at massively oversold levels and the break from 107.10 downwards won’t be easy. Further, a break of 107.10 changes the 18 year mid point to 102.57. Breaks at the 107 and 106’s for USD/JPY represents a wholesale change.

The first major break at the 337 day average is located at 109.16 then the 1105 day at 110.08, 110.29 and the 81 day at 110.93. The noted point to 110.29 is it represents a specially designed moving average. The overall range in USD/JPY is found between 107.10 to 110.08. Only on a break of 110.93 is 112.92 up for consideration as well as the top at 113.29.

As central banks  restructured prices in currency and other associated markets, 24 hour ranges factored ahead become predictable. For Monday trade, USD/JPY will range from 107.27 lows to 108.76 highs. In the way of 108.76 is a range point at 108.30. A range point in currency trading is far more vital than a trade able level and a target. The next vital break at 107.10 is protected.

While the BOJ remains committed to bond buying stimulus against its yield control policy to contain the 10 year yield as well as negative interest rates, the proposed Consumption tax slated for October 2019 is a warning.  All past Japanese economic experiments failed as a result of an economic tax. In the 1980′ to 1990’s, the Sales tax impaired the recovery. In 2010 and 2011, the 10% Sales and 10% Dividend tax impaired the recovery. In 11 Japanese economic experiments since the 1940’s, the tax failed to see the economic experiment come to fruition.

As a result, GDP for fiscal 2017 based on BOJ forecasts are slated for 1.5 to 1.8, then 1.1 to 1.5 for fiscal 2018 and 0.7 to 0.8 for fiscal 2019. Fiscal years for the BOJ are located in budgets years from April to April.

 

The overall problem to USD/JPY is its associated averages lack uniformity and certain averages are misplaced such as 109.16.

81 day average = 110.93

XXX = 110.29 = Special average

337 day = 109.16

595 = 113.29

850 = 112.92

1105 = 110.08

USD/JPY current close 107.82

1279 = 5y = 107.10

1360 = 105.42

1616 = 101.20

1875 = 98.85

2132 = 98.05

2643 = 99.61

2897 = 101.17

3153 = 102.24

3412 = 102.61

3669 = 103.26

3924 = 104.37

4178 = 105.67

4432 = 106.07

4689 =106.26

4787 = 106.50 = Jan 1, 1999

 

Brian Twomey

 

 

 

 

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s