G10 and NFP: Levels, Ranges, Targets

NFP forecasted at 98 Vs 156 for September is viewed as low and light for the calculation in terms of NFP averages. A rough support exists at 92 and 81.20 but both points to hit assumes 106 fails to break higher as well as targets at 118 to 122. The 98 point is below every average from 1 to 78 year monthly averages. The nearest significant break above is located at 174.50. Above targets today include 118.46, 119.30 and 122.43. The next target is found at 103.50. The overall range trade will see NFP from 58 to 148. Above or below will see prices in range breakouts. NFP averages month to month are volatile which means certain months are forecasted perfectly while others requires a bit of work.

Interesting timing for NFP today as many currency pairs are on the verge of significant breaks.

EUR/USD and USD/CAD hold the most significance because as opposite pairs, both contain widest ranges. Why EUR/USD and CAD is because USD/CHF contains supports at 0.9642 and 0.9716 Vs next above at 0.9849.

EUR/USD. Break points for EUR are located at 1.1676 and 1.1646. A break lower at 1.1676 and 1.1646, targets 1.1426 and 1.1405. EUR/USD to hold above 1.1676 and 1.1646, targets 1.1884 and 1.1926. This is the medium to shortest term view.
Today’s break points above are located at 1.1730 and 1.1787. We’re not looking for 1.1787 to break unless NFP reports far out of kilter. Below break points are 1.1658 then 1.1649, 1.1646 and 1.1636.

USD/CAD faces massive resistance above at 1.2620 and 1.2629. A significant bottom for today exists at 1.2526.

GBP/USD. Mentioned many times is dangerously low UK interest rates. Dangerously low means near zero then negative. The BOE maybe forced to raise only because of dangerously low interest rate levels. Dangerously low means current rates lifetime lows and nevr seen. Lifetime lows means since 1963 for Repos and 1997 for Sonia.

QE for the BOE isn’t the greatest factor overall as the amounts are about 400 million.

GBP/USD lies inside vital break points at 1.3050 to 1.3107. For today’s trade, supports exists at 1.3052 and 1.3030 Vs above at 1.3107, 1.3130, and 1.3163.

NZD/USD is most interesting for today as its current price is massively oversold. Today’s shorts are not recommended. The nearest break points overall are located at 0.7210 and 0.7291. Oversold means averages from 5 to 100 day. Most significant point today is 0.7151 and we view as holding far below.

EUR/JPY sits om supports at 131.50 and 130.12. The longer view for EUR/JPY and written many times over past months is EUR/JPY trades above EUR/USD and USD/JPY on a 5 and 6 month view as well as 1 year. USD/JPY must rise or EUR/JPY must fall further to rectify this situation.

Brian Twomey

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