Yesterday’s hazy EUR/USD convolution resulted in a 69 pip range from 1.1882 to 1.1813. Topside held and performed perfectly while 1.1838 was under serious question. EUR/USD broke 1.1838 and dead stopped at 1.1813. The 10 day average at 1.1826 broke lower to ensure 1.1813. The far better model informed long before 1.1813 was the ultimate bottom and 1.1826 was the rest point. The original question was volatility to target time and revealed is no question exists as performance was perfect. Yesterday informed range while Tuesday saw clear trend.
Different models yet same features but each is employed to meet its own specialities, overbought Vs oversold, range v trend, break points v trade able levels, perfect entry to exits, fast price speed to slow, short to long term trades, gaps to range.
Never mentioned is stops because its a feature long ago excluded. To know a price path excludes a stop. High volatility markets and fast price speeds may require my invented Mathematical Stop. Charts are also gone and not needed. I need a number, not a picture. Charts were replaced long ago with pen, paper, calculator.
How does today’s daily currency pair Gaps match to previous days and years and are Gaps a constant feature or not in the life of a Statistical Price Path. Rather than quantify the Gap statistically as in the “Tiles”, Quintiles, Quartiles, interquartiles the question is what informs the breakouts. Stay tuned for interested yet overall, don’t complicate trading as the basic foundations of math for trade success are add, subtract, multiply, divide. Never forget the progression, Money Supply, interest rates, currency price , economic data.
EUR/USD break points are now 1.1801 and 1.1731 below vs above at 1.2024. A break below at 1.1831 targets 1.1822, 1.1816 and break point at 1.1801. Above watch 1.1874 and 1.1889. Overall MA’s are neutral but this situation informs how close is the breakout point at 1.1801. Correct language is EUR is vastly oversold unless 1.1801 breaks. If 1.1801 breaks, EUR gains downside speed and longs are done as sell rally strategy becomes the new order.
EUR/JPY remains safely above its break points at 131.77, 131.55 and most vital 131.30. The break at 131.30 is required to see EUR/JPY direction change to sell rallies. Today, 132.04 and 132.37 protects 131.00’s. Topside, 133.37 must break to target 133.63 and 133.89.Short term MA’s are today overbought.
USD/JPY. Supports now exist at 111.92 and 111.67. Vital break points today below are 111.96 and 111.88. Strong cluster of supports overall. Above must break 112.37 to target 112.45 and 112.74. Watch the brick wall at 112.74 and 112.72.