GBP, EUR and Senate Rules: Levels, Ranges, Targets

Passage of Trump’s Tax Bill was performed by Article 1, Section 7 of the Constitution as the House of Representatives is solely responsible for ” All Revenue Bills ” to include taxes and budgets. Specific to the House of Representatives is Amendments, an attachment to a biil, must be specific to the issue. An Amendment such as to allow oil drilling in the Atlantic ocean attached to Trump’s Tax bill wouldn’t be allowed as this goes against rules of the House. An Amendment must be “Germane” to the specific bill.

Only the House has a Rules Committee to decide by vote of Members if a bill other than a revenue bill will allow an Amendemt. Certain bills fall under a Close Rule which means no Amendments allowed as opposed to an Open Rule to allow Amendments.
The main reason for the Germane issue and a creation by the Founding fathers is to ensure annual budgets pass. Imagine the damage caused to a bill if 435 persons attached special projects to a revenue bill. The second reason for the Germane issue is to ensure the process to passage of budgets is performed in a timely manner. The Senate is a far different animal.

The Senate operates under Unanimous Consent agreements. Unanimous Consent means “I block” therefore every procedure, every institutional move must be approved by both parties, Dems and Republicans. Failure to pass a Unanimous Consent agreement closes the Senate for the day, hour, minute until its approved. Trump’s Tax bill must pass and begin by Unanimous Consent to structure Senate Floor debates, time limits and Amendment process.

Trump’s Tax bill is located in the Senate Finance Committee where even then the committe operates under Unanimous Consent or the committee disolves until agreement passes.

Trump’s Tax bill in the Senate Finance Committee must go through Hearings and Markup by Unanimous Consent. A Markup of the current Senate bill is a line by line, word by word agreement to a bill to ensure the specific purpose and meaning of a bill intent is carried out explicitly. Then it goes to the floor for a vote by Unanimous Consent.

If wording in the House and Senate bill is different then the bill must go to A Conference Committee where agreement is reached on words. Then each bill goes back to the House and Senate for another vote on the Conference agreement.

The issue to Amendments in the Senate is attachments lack requirements to Germane or non Germane on the topic of the bill. The Democrats can attach an Amendment to raise taxes on Trump’s Tax cut bill in which case, Trump’s bill will die as it won’t see a vote. The Democrats can attach Amendment after Amendment for days, months and years to ensure either vote delay or the bill dies by not ever coming to a vote. The Dems and Republicans must agree by Unanimous Consent the rules to accept or not Germane Amendments.

Democrats can easily Filibuster Trump’s tax bill by any 1 Senator to speak on any topic on the Senate Floor. A Senator can read the names in phone books, recite Aunt Sally’s chicken soup recipe, sing a song. As long as a person speaks, Trump’s tax bill vote is delayed. or unless the reason for a Filibuster is to force a certain Amendment.
A Cloture Vote from its 1917 origination stops a Filibuster but 60 Senators must vote to agree and Trump doesn’t have 60 Senators in which case the Democrats can stop Trump’s bill by Filibuster. Before an actual Cloture vote on the floor, 16 Senators must agree to stop a Filibuster and this takes place 2 days after the Filibuster begins. Another delay.
Democrats can place Trump’s bill under a Hold. A Hold is the new Filibuster began under Clinton. A Hold says to the bill sponsor Trump’s bill will be Filibustered if introduced. A vote delay for Trump’s bill. A Hold overall delays Floor action, Agreements and bill votes.
Last is delay by Quorum Calls. If all Senators aren’t present on the Senate Floor then the Senate Clerk calls attendance of all 100 Senators. Quorum calls can go on all day and Democrats can issue Quorum calls everyday to doomsday and stop Trump’s bill.
Senate Rules and procedures lack association to arcane. A law is not supposed to pass so to protect the public from Tyranny from 100 Senator, big ego, power hungry Collusion.

GBP/USD. Overall break points 1.3142 and 1.3117. Below 1.3117 then 1.3084 comes next.

GBP/JPY Break Points 147.87 and 146.38. If GBP/USD breaks 1.3117 then GBP/USD becomes the leader to drag GBP/JPY lower. The daily break point is 149.01 and must break above at 149.19, 149.38 and 149.63.

EUR/USD. Broke overall vital point at 1.1623 only to see a 40 pip follow through 3 days later. God help the currency markets. Follow through on a significant break as 1.1623 should’ve seen already a 200 pip move to the downside.Today, 1.1565 must break to see 1.1558, 1.1541 and 1.1527.

EUR/JPY overall break points are located at 131.30 and 131.06. Most significant point below to break today is 131.10 means 131.30 will struggle to break.

 

Brian Twomey