USD/JPY and MA’s: Levels, Ranges, Targets

Facts regarding pips is every pip contains a deviation, a variance. Some deviations are wider than others but it depends on the currency pair. A deviation maybe off by 1 to 2 pips while other pair deviations may extend by as much as 5 and 6 pips. Low end deviations may contain 0.25, 0.50, as fractions 1/4 and 1/2. Is 10.25 result 10 or 11.

Certain currency pair pip deviations may result in even or odd as the next trade able point, target, range break. Certain currency pairs live their whole trading life as pip deviations while other currency pairs hit deviation then perfection and back to deviation due to the course of a trading day. Every traded pip and fraction pip imparts huge messages but one must understand it to act upon it. A 1 pip break of a range speaks to the next trade able point. Pips don’t contain false breaks as the pip traded perfect but the strategy was off.

USD/JPY 112.42 is the examination. If the 1 to 30 year yield range was the measure then USD/JPY breaks are located between 112.14 to 112.42. Between the 1 and 2 year, USD/JPY break is 112.22 and between the 20 and 30 year contains the break point at 112.18.

USD/JPY 112.14 to 112.42 points are found between the 2 and 20 year yield. This yield curve contains problems because it lacks uniformity. Under 112.14, nothing exists but measure USD/JPY by the yield curve, a bottom point is never found. No range breaks exist either as they are far far away.

if the yeld range was measured by Fed Funds then USD/JPY break points are located from 113.93 to 130.07. This means 113.93 is the first break point above. Overall break points are located at 105.05 and 106.17 Vs above at 118.94 and 119.57. From 106 to 118, we have 112.55 and 112.31 from 105 to 119. The result is 112.43 was found.

Yields impart one moment in time as 112.42 maybe the view at the moment but yields must trade rather than stand idle. Note no points exist to inform range break locations or the next trade able point, or a high point, or a target. Above 112.42 as well as below 112.14 exists nothing. Travel further down the yield curve then life becomes worse at 112.30 and 112.61.

From Moving averages, 2 breaks exist above, 112.37 and 112.53. Now 112.45 becomes the break point onward to 112.53. Higher for USD/JPY must break 112.53 to target at this moment, 113.07. What’s 112.42 and 112.45 is an implied trade able point but a trade able point that fails to impart a range break. Big difference between actual to implied. Break points above 112.37, 112.53 and 113.56. Overall 112.53 must break to see USD/JPY far higher.

Below breaks are 111.52, 110.70 and 110.18.

The next 24 hour  range is located from 111.51 to 112.63. To 111.51 must break 111.96 and 111.72. Note 111.51 meets 111.52. Means 111.52 won’t break. Further, a range break is located at 111.56. Higher must break 112.19 then on to challenge 112.53.

Here’s averages.

80 day = 111.52
Special average = 112.53
337 = 110.18
594 = 112.37
849 = 113.56
1104 = 110.70
1279 = 5Y= 108.41
1359 = 106.67
1616 = 102.20
1874 = 99.47
Brian Twomey