EUR/USD and G10: Levels, Ranges, Targets

 

Following are significant break points, MA’s dating to Jan 1999

 

EUR/USD 1.2046, 1.2079, 1.2135, 1.2194, 1.2280, 1.2357, 1.2435, 1.2486, 1.2674, 1.2699 and 1.2569. 5 Year average 1.1998, 10 and 14 year averages 1.2852 and 1.2853. Trend far lower requires breaks at 1.2036 and 1.1998.

NZD/USD 0.7145, 0.7258, 0.7262, 0.7277, 0.7318, 0.7339, 0.7394, 0.7410, 0.7418, 0.7428, 0.7435, 0.7499 and 0.7588. Lower for NZD must break 0.7200, the 5 year average, 10 and 14 are located at 0.7277, 0.7499 and 0.7428.

USD/JPY 105.45, 106.19, 106.62, 107.87 then 109.32, 109.58, 111.30, 111.58, 111.71, 112.47 and 113.95. 5 year average 109.40. To travel higher then 111.26 must break to target 112.47.

GBP/USD  1.3617, 1.4039, 1.4075, 1.4112, 1.4185, Then above 1.4331, 1.4477, 1.4550, 1.4586, 1.4623 and 1.4734. 5 year average 1.4734. Traend change short must break 1.3622

GBP/JPY 148.90, 149.12, 150.13, 150.46, 150.58, 151.41, 152.80, 153.77, 154.98, 159.32 and 160.45. The 10 year average 152.80, and 5 year is 160.82. Trend change lower must break 151.45.

EUR/JPY masses of supports exist below from 127’s to 131’s. Break points 130.41, 130.79, 131.06, 131.40, 131.46, 131.54, 133.48, 133.83. Then 136.20 and 136.54. Trend change lower must break 133.83 and 14 year average 131.56. EUR/JPY is massively oversold and well supported.

 

Brian Twomey

AUD/USD and USD/AUD Vs EUR/AUD Vs AUD/EUR

  AUD/USD, USD/AUD V EUR/AUD and AUD/EUR significant Break points dating to Jan 1999
                                   AUD/USD
  0.7878 break changes trend to down. Break Points 0.7878, 0.7950, 0.7988, 0.8116, 0.8128, 0.8144, 0.8172, 0.8228, 0.8297.
 0.8228 = 5 year average. AUD/USD from 0.7878 to 0.8297 equates to USD/AUD  from 1.2693 to 1.2052 and a long long way to 1.2052 as this drop to see AUD/USD higher means USD/AUD must drop 641 pips Vs an AUD/USD rise by 419 pips.
 Life between AUD/USD and USD/AUD ranges about 200 pips therefore best to view 0.7878 to 0.8228 as 350 pips for AUD/USD and USD/AUD at 1.2693 to 1.2153 for 540 pips. The actual range between AUD/USD and USD/AUD is 190 pips. If AUD/USD breaks 0.7878 then far lower, alternatively a break at 0.8228 represents far higher.
           At AUD/USD 0.8116, the range is actually broad at 0.9065 to 0.8116 for a mid point at 0.8570 but the way to view 0.8570 is by the 14 year average at 0.8470 because 0.8116 is an average line dating to 2001.
 Overall AUD/USD faces significant breaks shorter term and is currently overbought while USD/AUD is oversold short term. For the week, watch 0.8128 as this equates to the 5 year average for USD/AUD at 1.2303. At USD/AUD 1.1637 represents the 10 year average at AUD/USD 0.8593 then the 14 year at USD/AUD 1.2017 equates to AUD/USD at 0.8321.
 Until AUD/USD breaks 0.8128 and 0.8228 then the current rise must be viewed overall as a correction.
   AUD/USD targets on a break of 0.8228 are then 0.8297 and 0.8321. AUD/USD is below its 5, 10 and 14 year averages at 0.8228, 0.8470 and 0.8762 at the 10 year. USD/AUD is above 5, 10 and 14 year averages at 1.2303, 1.1637 and 1.2017.
   Current AUD/USD trades at its 42% point and warns AUD/USD is in do or die mode.
                     AUD/EUR
   Break below 0.6545 changes trend to down. Break points 0.6427, 0.6444, 0.6452, 0.6487, 0.6529,
   Above 0.6532, 0.6545, 0.6592, 0.6604, 0.6640, 0.6690
  0.6604 = 14 year average. At 0.6427 to 0.6604 equates to EUR/AUD 1.5559 to 1.5142.
         Current AUD/EUR trades at its 88% point and warns a significant drop is upon us.
                       EUR/AUD
  Break 1.5279 changes trend down. Below 1.5009, 1.5130, 1.5241, 1.5279, 1.5323, Above 1.5348, 1.5411, 1.5500, 1.5608, 1.5691, 1.5699, 1.5738
 1.5323 – 14 year average. From 1.5130 to 1.5738 equates to AUD/EUR 0.6609 to 0.6354. EUR/AUD at 1.5323 equates to AUD/EUR 0.6526 and Friday close was 0.6525.
   The AUD/EUR and EUR/AUD combo is a terrific manner to trade as EUR/AUD contains about 73 daily pips and AUD/EUR at 33 daily pips. If a trader knows how to trade this combo and its quite easy, AUD/EUR provides supports to allow EUR/AUD to travel higher while EUR/AUD provides supports to allow AUD/EUR to travel higher. Both AUD/EUR and EUR/AUD bounce from each other’s exchange rates to allow for longs and shorts in each pair for an easy double trade and many pips per trade.
                     Brian Twomey,