EUR/USD and G10: Levels, Ranges, Targets


Rare day for AUD/USD to lead the charge lower on a break of 0.7907 especially when NZD/USD’s break point was 0.7225 and it still traded at 0.7300’s. Normally NZD is market leader and it brings down the non USD pairs in EUR and GBP. Overall trend change occurs short term in USD when USD/JPY breaks 110.72, USD/CHF 0.9567.  USD/CAD as USD market leader broke its respective 1.2520 and now challenges 1.2641. Alternatively, GBP/USD must break 1.3714, EUR/USD 1.2132.

EUR/JPY’s break point at 134.29 is enough to bring down GBP/JPY at 151.81. Ultimate USD Pair and true commodity currency CAD/ZAR at 9.6327 remains below its break points at 10.01, 10.12 at the 5 year average and 10.40 at my special deigned 100 day average.

Overall currency markets and majority of currency pairs are within 100 pips to a trend change where USD becomes dominant as buy drop strategies. GBP/USD and GBP/JPY will fall below its break lines together as GBP/USD must remain dominant correlations to GBP/JPY. The question exists to who will own EUR/JPY in Correlation terms, USD/JPY or EUR/USD.

In the larger dominant market period since the 2008 crash, DXY at 90.00 remains above its break a 78.00, EUR/USD remains below 1.2800’s,  GBP/USD below 1.4700’s, USD/JPY remains above 98.96 and CAD/ZAR remains above 8.8555.  Further, USD/CAD remains above 1.1200’s while wild card USD/CHF must break 0.9798. Only breaks of 10 year averages informs to a wholesale market period change therefore USD retains overall domination until breaks of 10 year averages are seen.

Last post informed USD 10 year yield was oversold and going higher, it did as mentioned. The 2 year was overbought and it finally dropped.

What explains Stock Markets is interest rate ranges covered daily. For USD, last Tuesday 34 pts, Wed 24, Thurs 28, Fri 25, then Monday and Tuesday at 27, Stock Markets lost ability to rise, they killed the ranges. Ranges since the drop retained its fairly normal 30 point intervals to allow Stock market stability and again factor its normal Fair Value.


Brian Twomey