S&P’s 1997 to 2018: Levels, Ranges, Targets

The S&P’s next break point from its 2621.75 close is located at the 1 year monthly average at 2509.25 then 2 and 3 year monthly averages at 2319.33 and 2226.73. Every Monthly average from 1 to 20 year was viewed for current analysis as 20 years dates to Oct 1997 and contains the 1997 / 1998 and 2008 market implosions.

The tops in current 2621.75 is seen from extreme prices within the averages over 20 years and ranges from 2698.59 lows at the 20 year to 2988.28 highs at the 2 year. The extremes are uniform within the averages from 1 to 5 years then 12 to 20 years.
Confirmation to tops at extremes are seen from Peaks in averages 1 to 5 years to inform the S&P’s are heading and in dire need of a correction. Peak Signals inside current price as an indicator warns not only is a higher price not justified but more variation is warranted to allow a wider trading range. The S&P price in relation to the averages traveled ahead of itself.

Averages 1 to 20 years are nicely uniformed and range from 2509.25 at the 1 year to 1420.73 at the 20 year. Uniformed means no MA crossovers and current price is above every average 1 to 20 years.

The Mid point in all averages is located at 1964.99. The mid point from 10 to 20 year averages are located at 1521.75 and 1 to 10 mid points are found at 2066.01. Extreme overbought to current prices is seen from the 10 to 20 year averages and ranges from 1622.78 at the 10 year to the 20 year at 1420.73. Averages 1 to 10 years from 2509.25 to 1622.78 as well are overbought and current price trades far to high and above its range averages.

While averages 1 to 5 year tops at 2900’s, averages from 14 to 20 years meets extreme prices at the 20 year average at 2698.59 to the 14 year at 2886.17. Averages from 14 to 20 years are not only extremely overbought but averages are lower therefore price rises bumps against extremes far quicker as lower averages. Vital to this analysis is 1.2700’s to 1.2900;s represent far overbought extremes.

A break at the 1 year average at 2509.25 targets next supports at 2469.0, 2319.33, 2316.87, 2226.73, 2157.62, 2140.25 then 2085.0, 2056.75 and 2055.62.

Targets for the 20 averages to align the distribution of prices range from 2648.45 to the 20 year at 1846.68. Most immediate targets are located at 2648.45, 2542.31, 2454.13, 2391.50, 2351.47, 2312.33, 2262.46 and 2213.65. The averages to watch and most vulnerable to breaks are the 1 year at 2509.25 and 2 year at 2319.33.

Based on targets and supports, 2319.33 and 2316.87 will result in tough points to break especially as Trump tax cuts and regulatory elimination will result in higher earnings for America’s largest companies composed in the S & P’s. Higher earnings is what effects the E side of Price/ Earnings Ratios. On the negative side to lower prices is QE unwind as the S & P rise from 2009 at 659.62 to last highs at 2880.03 was the result of QE as well to target higher Inflation rates. The mid point from market highs and lows from 659 to 2880 is 1769.82.

From Sunday night to Monday trading, targets for the lower points are 2624.30, 2619.19 and 2611.91. On the high side is 2880.77, 2752.53, 2688.41 and 2656.35. Trade strategy from a daily perspective is sell rallies while overall 2509 is in the way to 2300’s. From the close at 2621, at 2900’s or 300 points achieves extremes and 2300’s support or 300 points faces massive resistance.

Brian Twomey

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