EUR/USD and EUR Cross Pairs: Levels, Ranges, Targets

The common theme to currency market prices remains the relationship to either significant break points or breaks at longer term 5, 10 and 14 year averages. Association to break points explains current market volatility and as mentioned long before, volatility is here to stay for a while.

As market leader on the Non USD side, EUR/USD must break its falling line at 1.2129 to travel lower and EUR/USD for overall context trades between its 5, 10 and 14 year averages at 1.1978 and 1.2842. At 1.2842 is current location of the 10 and 14 year averages and overall a 900 pip range.

From 1.1978 and break points dated to Jan 1999, next points are located at 1.2043, 1.2079, 1.2139, 1.2186, 1.2129, then comes 1.2289, 1.2426, 1.2496, 1.2556 and 1.2669. Higher for EUR/USD would see wider ranges and more volatile movements.
What contains EUR/USD higher is most traded cross pair since year 2000 in EUR/JPY as it broke its most significant point at 133.91 and EUR/JPY must break this point to travel higher. From current 132.85, EUR/JPY broke its 14 and 5 year averages at 131.57 and 130.57 but remains above the 10 year at 126.08. The 10 year must break for significant period changes as EUR/USD remains below its 10 and USD/JPY trades above at 98.96.

From 126.08, the 14 year breaks points are located at 127.10, 127.44, 127.56, 128.33, 129.08, 129.50, 129.93, 130.48, 130.81, 131.08, 131.43, 131.46, 131.56. Massive resistance is located at 133.85 and significant break t 133.91. Why significant is due to next level at 134.08. Previous to the 133.91 break, EUR/JPY traded above every average from 1 to 14 years.

EUR/CHF from current 1.1527, must break 1.1583 to travel higher and target the 100 day at 1.1668. Massive resistance exists below at the 5 year average at 1.1415.

EUR/CAD from wildly overbought and current 1.5540, faces massive supports at 1.5216 and 1.5111. EUR/CAD trades above its 5, 10 and 14 year averages at 1.4541 (14), 1.4413 at the 5 year and 1.4357 at the 10 year. Good short in EUR/CAD.

EUR/NZD from current 1.6936 must break 1.6813 to travel lower or break 1.6952 to travel higher. The 5 year is located at 1.6004 and overall EUR/NZD price remains highly neutral in all its averages.

EUR/AUD from current 1.5701 and overbought must break 1.5443 and 1.5413 to travel lower. The 14 year average is located 1.5320 and 10 year at 1.4821.

EUR/GBP from current 0.881 must break 0.8853 and 0.8849 to travel lower. The 10 year is located at 0.8316.

EUR/USD remains below its 10 year average while above are EUR/JPY, EUR/CAD, EUR/AUD and EUR/GBP. Under performing EUR/CHF and EUR/NZD remains below.

EUR/USD not only trades far above its 5 year average but all respective cross pairs trade above 5 year averages.

Brian Twomey

AUD/USD and AUD Cross Pairs: Levels, Ranges, Targets

 

AUD/USD break last Wednesday at its most significant 0.7907 resulted in a 146 pip move by Friday to 0.7761. As AUD continued its drop, 0.7907 is today’s most vital break at 0.7855. AUD now trades above and threatens to travel higher as most significant points are finely tuned MA’s.

The early warning to AUD/USD’s drop was AUD/EUR Thursday Feb 1 broke 0.6536 and 0.6498 Wednesday FeB 7. AUD/EUR dropped to 0.6328 Tuesday FEB 6 or EUR/AUD 1.5802.

At 0.6536 and 0.6498 translates to EUR/AUD 1.5299 and 1.5389. AUD/EUR at 0.6300’s literally left the charts dating to 1999 and now faces its next break points at 0.6427 and 0.6445 or EUR/AUD 1.5559 and 1.5515. To See AUD/EUR travel significantly higher then 0.6478 must break or EUR/AUD 1.5436.

AUD/EUR break points to 0.6478 dated to Jan 1999 are located at 0.6427, 0.6445, 0.6452 and 0.6489. The 14 year average is located at 0.6605.

AUD/USD break points dated to Jan 1999 are located at 0.7542, 0.7612, 0.7660, 0.7756, 0.7791, 0.7851 then 0.7956 and 0.7972. The 5 year average is located at 0.8207.

The next AUD and complementary pair in the AUD universe is AUD/CHF. At current 0.7345, AUD/CHF must break 0.7501 to travel higher. Failure to break 0.7501 results in a sell rally approach.

AUD/JPY from current 84.64 must break 86.71 to travel higher. For perspective to current wildly oversold AUD/JPY, the 10 year average is located at 85.47 and 14 year average at 86.13. Breaks higher targets the 5 year at 89.33 yet not likely anytime soon.

AUD/NZD at current 1.0791 to travel higher must break 1.0887 then the 5 year average and special designed 100 day average is located 1.0943 and 1.0998.

AUD/CAD as Market Risk Barometer and slowest mover in the AUD universe to travel lower from current 0.9894 and overbought must break 0.9853 and 5 year average at 0.9852. Next supports exist at the special 100 day average at 0.9802 and 10 year average at 0.9743.

Brian Twomey