EUR/USD and EUR Cross Pairs: Levels, Ranges, Targets

The common theme to currency market prices remains the relationship to either significant break points or breaks at longer term 5, 10 and 14 year averages. Association to break points explains current market volatility and as mentioned long before, volatility is here to stay for a while.

As market leader on the Non USD side, EUR/USD must break its falling line at 1.2129 to travel lower and EUR/USD for overall context trades between its 5, 10 and 14 year averages at 1.1978 and 1.2842. At 1.2842 is current location of the 10 and 14 year averages and overall a 900 pip range.

From 1.1978 and break points dated to Jan 1999, next points are located at 1.2043, 1.2079, 1.2139, 1.2186, 1.2129, then comes 1.2289, 1.2426, 1.2496, 1.2556 and 1.2669. Higher for EUR/USD would see wider ranges and more volatile movements.
What contains EUR/USD higher is most traded cross pair since year 2000 in EUR/JPY as it broke its most significant point at 133.91 and EUR/JPY must break this point to travel higher. From current 132.85, EUR/JPY broke its 14 and 5 year averages at 131.57 and 130.57 but remains above the 10 year at 126.08. The 10 year must break for significant period changes as EUR/USD remains below its 10 and USD/JPY trades above at 98.96.

From 126.08, the 14 year breaks points are located at 127.10, 127.44, 127.56, 128.33, 129.08, 129.50, 129.93, 130.48, 130.81, 131.08, 131.43, 131.46, 131.56. Massive resistance is located at 133.85 and significant break t 133.91. Why significant is due to next level at 134.08. Previous to the 133.91 break, EUR/JPY traded above every average from 1 to 14 years.

EUR/CHF from current 1.1527, must break 1.1583 to travel higher and target the 100 day at 1.1668. Massive resistance exists below at the 5 year average at 1.1415.

EUR/CAD from wildly overbought and current 1.5540, faces massive supports at 1.5216 and 1.5111. EUR/CAD trades above its 5, 10 and 14 year averages at 1.4541 (14), 1.4413 at the 5 year and 1.4357 at the 10 year. Good short in EUR/CAD.

EUR/NZD from current 1.6936 must break 1.6813 to travel lower or break 1.6952 to travel higher. The 5 year is located at 1.6004 and overall EUR/NZD price remains highly neutral in all its averages.

EUR/AUD from current 1.5701 and overbought must break 1.5443 and 1.5413 to travel lower. The 14 year average is located 1.5320 and 10 year at 1.4821.

EUR/GBP from current 0.881 must break 0.8853 and 0.8849 to travel lower. The 10 year is located at 0.8316.

EUR/USD remains below its 10 year average while above are EUR/JPY, EUR/CAD, EUR/AUD and EUR/GBP. Under performing EUR/CHF and EUR/NZD remains below.

EUR/USD not only trades far above its 5 year average but all respective cross pairs trade above 5 year averages.

Brian Twomey


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