AUD/EUR and EUR/AUD: Levels, Ranges, Targets

AUD/EUR followed by EUR/AUD.   At 0.6371 was close for AUD/EUR and EUR/AUD trades currently 1.5696

80 day = 0.6478 = 1.5436

Special Average = 0.6464 = 1.5470

334 day = 0.6786 = 1.4736

591 day = 0.6735 = 1.4847

846 day = 0.6757 = 1.4799

1101 day = 0.6764 = 1.4784

1279 day = 5Y = 0.6842 = 1.4615

1356 day = 0.6905 = 1.4482

1613 day = 0.7077 = 1.2975

1871 day = 0.7119 = 1.4046

2128 day = 0.7073 = 1.4138

2383 day = 0.6902 = 1.4488

2562 day = 10Y = 0.6832 = 1.4637

2639 day = 0.6809 = 1.4686

2894 day = 0.6747 = 1.4821

3150 day = 0.6690 = 1.4947

3408 day = 6642 = 1.5055

3590 = 14Y = 0.6605 = 1.5140

3665 day = 0.6595 = 1.5163

3920 day = 0.6535 = 1.5302

4174 day = 0.6490 = 1.5408

4429 day = 0.6452 = 1.5499

4685 day = 0.6445 = 1.5515

4899 day = 0.6427 = 1.5559

 

Brian Twomey

 

 

 

NZD/USD and Technical Analysis: Levels, Ranges, Targets

If I present the MA views Vertical or up and down then the picture is clear, Horizontal or left to right then it appears not as clear. If I present for example 5 or 6 vital break points Horizontally then it appears possibly as information overload. What if Horizontal lines were drawn against or inside the Vertical lines as possibly many long term mid points or mid points between averages. My preference by fact and years of tests is mid points between averages because longer term mid points begins to impede on Fibonacci and Fibonacci Vs Moving average statistics are miles apart. Never was nor ever will I become enamored with Fibonacci because the numbers are wrong and off especially as it pertain to target trading.

Why the vertical view in my estimation is dominant is because we think of exchange rates as moving up and down rather than left to right yet the Vertical view is as much correct as the Horizontal especially as either view contains 18 years of moving averages.

Most specifically and not understood in exchange rate trading is currency prices are deeply in love with extreme points. Extreme points in my daily trades for 3 years are interest rate extremes but Moving averages are as much attractors to a price. A price must trade to its next point and if the level happens to be extreme then its quite normal.

Why this article and depth is because I’m in the process to draw interest rate lines to match a picture to a daily trade and overall this is quite an excursion especially to match exact points from currency pair to currency pair. The target aspect is easy but location is the key. As usual, I’m miles ahead of the crowds respectfully.

Notice the break of 0.7487 at the 5 year average and note how prices then trade in the center of the 18 year view. Luckily for the 5, 10 and 14 year averages then we see 4 quadrants based on 18 years of moving averages. If a price trades to the center then the drop will travel quite far. Alternatively, if price trades at its low extremes at 0.6900’s to 0.6700’s and 0.6600 then a far distance exists to trade higher. Traders want 0.7487 to break as multi month or even multi year trades exist. At 0.7648 is top in the center and NZD won’t trade above otherwise its out of range and a free trade would present itself.

For NZD/USD to reach the crucial center above 0.7487 then 6 break points exist, 0.7379, 0.7413, 0.7425, 0.7427, 0.7433 and 0.7487. Note EUR/USD contains 6 break points to reach its center trade levels above 1.2800’s. Currency pairs are exactly the same to each other as the names of pairs and exchange rate numbers are quite meaningless as most important is location.

Why location is because economic announcements are all the same nation to nation. Currently GDP for example is slated to travel higher in all nations. A time will come when this reverses and all nations report lower GDP. So tightly wound are exchange rates to each other. View other economic releases and see its all the same as the current world outlook is good. But note how a vast majority of currency pair prices are located near the center while non USD pairs at the bottom. The relationship is bottom quadrant to center and broken down by 4 quadrants  or 4 locations.

What melds the system of exchange rates and economic announcements together is interest rates between and among nations as all  trade at pretty much 1.50. NZD is 1.75 but the difference between 1.50 and 1.75 is extremely small and hardly registers.

Ask this question. Is NZD rising and USD falling. How is this question assessed in cross pairs such as EUR/CAD. Only one side of a cross pair is a dominant driver.

0.7648 tops to lows at 0.6657 mid point is 0.7152. At 0.7487 at the 5 year average to 0.7026 lows mid point is 0.7256. At 0.7425 at the 10Y to 0.7026 mid point is 0.7225. At 0.7279 and 14Y to 0.7026 mid point is 0.7152. At 0.7487 to 0.7279 mid equals 0.7383.

Lower for NZD must break 0.7231. For the week, 0.7341, 0.7379, 0.7413, 0.7425, 0.7427, 0.7433 and 0.7487.

80 day = 0.7074

Special average = 0.7231

334 day = 0.7124

591 day = 0.7026

846 day = 0.7076

1101 day = 0.7379

1279 = 5Y = 0.7487

1356 day = 0.7533

1613 day = 0.7609

1871 day = 0.7648

2128 day = 0.7588

2383 day = 0.7427

2562 day = 10Y = 0.7425

2639 day = 0.7433

2894 day = 0.7413

3150 day = 0.7341

3408 day = 0.7320

3590 day = 14Y = 0.7279

3665 day = 0.7264

3920 day = 0.7155

4174 day = 0.6994

4429 day = 0.6833

4685 day = 0.6718

4899 day = 0.6657.

 

Brian Twomey