EUR/USD: Levels, Ranges Targets

 

The close at 1.2317 is located above the distribution  from below at 1.2311 and 1.2311 last week was 1.2310 and 1.2307 in the prior week. The main break point at 1.2358 to travel higher remains a constant in the upcoming week and unchanged over the past 2 weeks. The averages below are far to high and at Peaks while the daily view of averages from 5 to 253 days contains near perfect neutrality. Neutrality means a higher EUR/USD becomes overbought and lower results in oversold but overall movements will trade steady without dramatic spikes.

From 1.2311, extreme prices are located from 1.2828 to 1.1794. At 1.2829 and 1.2841 is located the 10 and 14 year averages followed by 1.2831, 1.2874, 1.2884 and 1.2892. The best price achievable upon a 1.2800 break is 1.2937 otherwise EUR is outside its normal ranges. From the must break to head lower at 1.2160, extreme above is located at 1.2682 and informs how solid is 1.2800’s. Higher means breaks at 1.2358, 1.2414, 1.2506, 1.2539, 1.2665 and 1.2715.

At 1.2160, EUR/USD is well protected by 1.2172 and 1.2144 then the 5 year average at this week’s 1.1968 and down from 1.1971 last week and 1.1975 from 2 weeks ago.  Below 1.2160 then next comes 1.2080, 1.2072 and 1.2037. Below 1.2037 then the floodgates open to the extremes at 1.1794 and 1.1769. In perspective to 1.2160, the mid point to below averages is located at 1.2088 and 1.2398 from the 5 and 10 year averages at 1.1968 and 1.2829. From 1.2160 to 1.2829, mid is found at 1.2494.

At 1.2160 informs the overall range is 174 pips which answers why the daily neutral reading. To further neutral, low and peak readings is the declaration is the price off or the statistics, both or just right. Balance this against a 517 pip range in the below distribution of averages, 520 last week and 524 the week prior. EUR/USD’s progress as a trend is not only slow and will remain slow but its price overall is listless and subject to incoming data.

As EUR/USD maintains a negative 94% correlation to CAD/ZAR and as EUR/USD’s most opposite currency pair, CAD/ZAR at current 9.2515 must break above  9.6969 in order for EUR/USD to contain any chance to break 1.2160 and to declare a trend change overall in a higher USD. Not a hard job for wide ranging CAD/ZAR.

The aspect to CAD/ZAR most vital is to view it as the best USD indicator. Current CAD/ZAR from a daily perspective of averages reveals its price is extremely low with upside potential to inform EUR/USD still contains downside potential and sell rally strategy. As an aside to EUR/RON, daily Correlations to EUR/USD run at current +97% and EUR/RON’s price maintains a reading just above neutrality. EUR/RON must break 4.6452 to travel far lower.

Following are averages 80 to 4904 days separated by roughly 200 day averages and dates to Jan 1999.

80 day = 1.2072

Special average = 1.2160

335 day = 1.1350

592 = 1.1239

847 = 1.1262

1102 = 1.1769

1279 = 5Y = 1.1968

1357 = 1.2037

1613 = 1.2172

1872 = 1.2414

2129 = 1.2539

2384 = 1.2665

2562 = 10Y = 1.2829

2640 = 1.2884

2894 = 1.2937

3150 = 1.2892

3409 = 1.2874

3589 = 14Y= 1.2841

3665 = 1.2831

3921 = 1.2715

4175 = 1.2506

4429 = 1.2302

4686 = 2144

4909 = 1.2080

 

Brian Twomey