AUD/NZD: Levels, Ranges, Targets

AUD/NZD historic tops are located at 1.3575 in September 2000 and 1.3793 in March 2011 while historic bottoms achieved 1.0406 in December 2005 and 0.9973 in April 2015. For AUD/NZD to trade to its 1.1883 mid point, the 5, 10 and 14 year averages must break at 1.0899, 1.1775 and 1.1621.

AUD/NZD’s current price at 1.0600’s is not only flat on the floor historically but it must trade to its multi year range point at 1.0964 then the larger range becomes 1.0964 to 1.1775. Most vital to this scenario is the 5 year average break point at 1.0899 to move significantly higher to not only 1.0964 but to achieve a far more comfortable trading range longer term from 1.0899 to 1.1776 and shorter range from 1.0899 to 1.1370.

AUD/NZD at 1.0600’s and lower is impossible to trade short because its oversold both from a historical and daily view, its price is low and outside range boundaries. Oversold means lower price extremes are located at 1.0526 and 1.0467. Above, AUD/NZD contains easily a potential to challenge its 5 year average at 1.0899 as overbought begins at the range point from 1.0934 to 1.0964. Higher will take time but higher for AUD/NZD is the only trade.

To move higher, AUD/NZD must break its most vital point at 1.0760 then 1.0838 and clear sailing to the 5 year average at 1.0899. Overall break points to 1.0760 are located at 1.0643, 1.0719, 1.0737 and 1.0745. From 1.0760, next comes 1.0773, 1.0779 then 1.0838.

Most volatile points higher are located at 1.0770, 1.0772, 1.0777, 1.0790 and 1.0814.

For the shortest term trade and match the 100 pip trade criteria, the target is 1.0719 and 1.0737 and the overall strategy is long any drops and never consider short.

EUR/AUD at the time of Wednesday’s post hit its highs at 1.6192 and so far touched 1.5982 for a 210 pip and ongoing gain. EUR/GBP 0.8797 to 0.8733 gained so far 64 pips.

Brian Twomey

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