USD/NOK and CAD: Levels, Ranges, Targets

USD/NOK since March 14th represents the 15th currency pair posted and 16th to include the no trade, 300 pip GBP/CHF range. All posted pairs performed as written but all posted pairs contain long range forecasts and may last for weeks or longer. EUR/AUD and EUR/GBP for example were posted March 27 and March 28 when EUR/AUD shorts entered at 1.6191 and EUR/GBP from 0.8797. EUR/AUD achieved new lows again overnight at 1.5895 and runs 296 pip profit while EUR/GBP runs +78 pips at 0.8719 lows. USD/CNY achieved new highs at 6.3100’s from 6.2874. AUD/NZD maintains laggard status as written and is just fine.

USD/CAD and CAD/JPY were first March 14th from USD/CAD short at 1.3140’s and CAD/JPY long from 80.58. The target for CAD/JPY as written was 84.00’s and CAD/JPY is close to its vital break point at today’s 84.53. A break then higher goes CAD/JPY to 86.00’s. Most vital is USD/CAD at today’s break point at 1.2762 then comes 1.2660 which means CAD/JPY at 85.00’s. After 3 weeks, both pairs must refactor and repost for exact levels and break points.

USD/NOK current 7.8482 contains topside problems as its price is high and overbought. Best aspect to 7.8482 is this price lies just under the next most vital break point at 7.8542. A break above 7.8542 places USD/NOK into a larger range as well as far more overbought status from 7.8542, to 7.9076 and 7.9358.

USD/NOK shorts must travel to at least 7.7724 and far lower overtime. Far lower over time means USD/NOK contains easy potential to challenge its 5 year average at 7.4955 upon a break of 7.7489. Current NOK trades above its 5, 10 and 14 year averages.

Further overbought means extreme caution at 8.0011 and 8.2927 yet current overbought points won’t be seen because NOK can’t handle nor won’t hold those levels. USD/NOK is a wide wide range currency pair.

Context to 8.0011 and 8.2927 is next break points and top of the multi year range are located at 8.1973, 8.2018 and 8.2867. USD/NOK contains one direction and its lower as longs are impossible.

First break points below are located at 7.8377 then clear sailing to target at 7.7724. Why target at 7.7724 is because USD/NOK over next days will sustain deep trouble holding 7.6907 and 7.6498 and 7.7489 is a huge break point. To see 7.7600’s will take time.

Next posts GBP/AUD although so far no enthusiasm for this pair. USD/MXN and CAD/MXN for possible NAFTA trades. AUD and NZD/JPY and CHF/JPY completes G10 JPY crosses. My currency pair arsenal contains 476 currency pairs so much more to go.


Brian Twomey