AUD/USD and Trade Recap: Levels, Ranges, Targets

Since March 14 and the begining of current trades that began with USD/CAD, 20 currency pairs were posted to exclude the weekly EUR/USD V USD/JPY trades. All trades performed as written against the goal to post currency pair targets at + 100 pips or better.

Most pairs performed far more than the 100 pips intended. For example, EUR/AUD, GBP/AUD, EUR/NZD, USD/CNY, USD/CAD, CAD/JPY, USD/NOK all profited at + 200 pips. GBP/CHF as the best trade overall at a 500 pip potential profit was missed and only seen by the time to factor the trade was a 300 pip dead range and untouchable. USD/HKD seriously underperformed therefore I bailed with a few pips profit and not to touch again as HKD serves a far more different purpose today than its once highly trade able currency pair.

No trade was found in KRW and this condition may last for many months if not years. Signature on the South Korea / US trade deal may move KRW but not until after the May/ June meeting with Trump and North Korea.

AUD/NZD as the only under performer ran a 50 + pip profit first then a 90 ish pip loss. The long trade remains to target 1.0700’s. AUD/JPY and AUD/USD longs remain to target and both are running profits. Many more pairs will post against the continued objective at 100 pips or better. The goal is currency pair diversity in 30 + currency pairs rather than pip amounts although 100 pip trades remains the target.

In the March 23rd AUD/USD post, a base formation was reported and this was correct as AUD drove 70 + pips higher however the base formation was reason enough to remain for higher levels. And despite a 3 week trade for 150 + pips. The base formation is partially explained by only 2 levels below exist for AUD and those levels are located at 0.7582 and 0.7574. The second explanation is drivers at 0.8200’s.

What drove AUD March 23rd was 0.8260 and must break 0.7797 as opposed to March 1st at 0.8264 and 0.7813. AUD drivers today are 0.8257 and must break at 0.7759. The topside fails to drive much lower to lower 0.7600’s and 0.7500’s.

The objective is target at 0.7834 on a break of 0.7759. At 0.7834 remains however a fluid number as resistance now exists at 0.7834, 0.7837 and an upper line at 0.7862. The line at 0.7862 requires consideration within the next week.

The overall lesson and message to past and future trades is not to lose sight of the long term forecasts as the trades see far ahead to prices. Far ahead views informs the economics and/ or political events to influence the price. March 23rd, nobody considered AUD but 3 weeks later, a new AUD interest exists. March 22nd, EUR/NZD 1.6800’s was the break point and today, EUR/NZD trades 1.6700’s. Much more to come.

Brian Twomey