EUR/CAD Vs EUR/CHF: Levels, Ranges, Targets

Overnight AUD/USD broke reported 0.7759 and achieved 0.7768 and now target at 0.7834 is close, 3 weeks later. AUD/JPY from lower 82.00’s achieved + 137 pips at 83.37 and on to 84.27 ish target. EUR/AUD and EUR/GBP traded to new lows. although 296 and 100 pip objectives were achieved. EUR/JPY now approaches 133.00’s from reported 131.80’s break point and deserves a deeper view as 133.00’s represented EUR/JPY’s top weeks ago. All EUR G10 currency pairs remain deeply challenged at the topside and today’s Skitzy EUR/CHF and EUR/CAD add to the mix.

EUR/CAD’s price represents a currency pair inside a currency pair and this describes both a skitzo and dangerous situational currency pair. Short term, EUR/CAD trades within a well defined larger range from 1.5309 to 1.5825 but this range is further contained by break points at today’s 1.5567 and 1.5656. Above 1.5656, targets 1.5825 and below 1.5567 targets 1.5309.

Longer term EUR/CAD richter scale overbought is an understatement as EUR/CAD’s rightful place is found at middle to lower 1.4900’s and 600 pips below its current price. The danger to EUR/CAD is its subject to a deep dive and a drop to occur anytime. EUR/CAD awaits the spark then its gone. EUR/CAD’s currency pair within a currency pair short term contained the short term price and prevented it from its impending drop. The shorter term view and daily metrics hides what’s behind the actual price.

As EUR/CAD longs are impossible, the short strategy is target the impending break at 1.5567 then 1.5309. At 1.5309 is the break line to see a further massive drop to begin an advanced trend lower to 1.4974.

EUR/CHF’s longer term downtrend is well defined below its main break at 1.2388 then 1.2262 and ironically 1.2009 followed by 1.1923. Critical at 1.2009 was the overall point when the SNB in 2009 released the EUR/CHF long held floor at 1.2000 to see a 3500 pip drop in 15 minutes.

At 1.1800’s, the downtrend trend represents beginning stages yet the trend is not only stagnant but highly undecided as the shortest term break points are located from 1.1702 to 1.1923. Shorts must break 1.1778 then 1.1702 to target 1.1671, 1.1653 and 1.1626. Shorts today must drop to 1.1778 and below while longs are impossible despite a low and highly undecided price.

Strategy is shorts only for the impending break at 1.1702 particularly as EUR/CHF’s downtrend will begin again and because price rises are forced market corrections.

Overall, no thrills exist to a longer term trade as EUR/CHF is a slow slow mover currency pair. EUR/CAD long term shorts however upon the 1.5500 break is a far better trade yet patience is required.

Brian Twomey