EUR/USD V USD/JPY: Levels, Ranges, Targets

Week 8 and range compression continues the EUR/USD and USD/JPY story as EUR/USD loses another 9 pips at 496 pips from 505 and USD/JPY drops 5 pips to 432 from 437 last week. Since March 10, EUR/USD traded a 513 pip range from 1.1802 to 1.2828 while USD/JPY traded 438 pips from 109.54 to 100.77.

EUR/USD today trades 1.1831 to 1.2823 as bottoms gained 29 pips since March 10 while USD/JPY loses 28 pips on the topside from 109.74 to today’s 109.45. USD/JPY gained 6 pips on the bottom side from 110.73 to 100.80. USD/JPY trades today from 109.45 to 100.80. The compression story since FEB 23rd derives from USD/JPY as both tops and bottoms restricted while EUR/USD bottoms are formed solid supports.

EUR/USD managed 1.2397 highs last week from stated break points at 1.2341, 1.2354, 1.2361 and 1.2400 then dropped 100 pips to 1.2299. Sell points last week were also stated at 1.2361 to 1.2400.

This week, break points are wide as EUR/USD longs must remain above 1.2327 to target 1.2361, 1.2397, 1.2451 and 1.2505. Watch most vital 1.2397 as this point upon a break assures 1.2451. Sell points are located at 1.2397.

Below 1.2327 then next comes 1.2308, 1.2288, 1.2274 and on to biggest break point at 1.2235. Below 1.2235 then targets become 1.2158, 1.2153 and 1.2082. EUR/USD contains its best shot this week to break 1.2235 and 1.2235 will deploy as upper resistance to a lower EUR/USD. Higher EUR/USD remains challenged by overbought 1.1300’s and 1.1500’s. A lower EUR is required to relieve overbought before a 1.2500 EUR has any shot to sustain.

Most conflicted USD/JPY higher must break 107.95 to target next points at 108.42, 108.68 and 108.94 then consideration to the 5 year average at 109.93. This week’s USD/JPY contains every ability to break 107.95 then trade to 108.42.Overall higher USD/JPY will remain slow and deeply challenged.

USD/JPY below must break 107.07 then comes many and rough points in the 106.00’s beginning at 106.62, 106.22 and 106.15. Good long points at lower 106.00’s.

Week 8 and the same story remains as breakouts must be seen to offer any decent trade. Currently, it doesn’t exist.

 

Brian Twomey

 

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