EUR/USD and G10: Levels, Ranges, Targets

When Mark Carney left the Bank of Canada to head the BOE, GBP/CAD became known as the “Carney Cross” and yesterday it performed to its designation.

GBP/CAD from last Friday, April 13th, achieved its destination overnight at target 1.7772 and now exit at 1.7782. Massive resistance faces GBP/CAD at 1.7700’s. The next big break point is located at 1.7705 then 1.7698 and 1.7611. Overall range is located from 1.8037 to 1.7705.

AUD/NZD despite big drops in AUD/USD and NZD/USD as well as both trading below vital break points, AUD/NZD sits dead and the 5 week range traded 188 pips from 1.0485 to 1.0673 . After 5 weeks and a 188 pip range, AUD/NZD is best described as a severe underperformer currency pair. Editorially, AUD/NZD is permanently excluded from trade consideration as other trade able currency pairs exist. A 188 pip range equates to 7.52 pips per day in 25 trade days.

USD/HKD, despite HKMA intervention last week, USD/HKD dropped 100 pips and against severe skyrocket overbought. Asia contains 2 most vital money market centers, Singapore and Hong Kong. The Chinese deal through Hong Kong in offshore USD/CNY and Onshore USD/CNH while the Japanese and most Asia nations deal through Singapore. Both USD/HKD and USD/SGD then remain quite stable in prices and movements. USD/SGD rose 36 pips in 2 days.

GBP/USD. Monday represents the finalization to the BOE’s 2 year interest rate revamp study . Release times will change as priority is devoted to separate wild news movements to a smoother traded currency price. Far more direction and control to GBP is granted to banks and interest rate traders as the prior BOE’s interactive system for interest rate look up was also revamped.

The BOE’s prior interactive system required advanced knowledge to trade GBP against interest rates. Now, the BOE forced interest rate traders to build their own interest rate curves and only those banks with prior interest rate knowledge contain this deep expertise as they deeply understand the interest rate changes.

One vital aspect to the change is the BOE created a sincere nightmare hurdle to obtain the necessary interest rates and only few banks are willing to take this time and to factor the curves. As I’m inside every nation’s interest rate system daily over many years, GBP from my perspective is still able to trade based on the BOE’s new system but how effective will the changes hold and can the BOE actually contain GBP volatility is questionable and only time will tell the tale.

EUR/USD look at 1.2309 and 1.2293 to hold then bounce today. Break point for much lower is now located at 1.2252 and a rising line.

EUR/CAD remains the only pair left from the 5 week trades and short is our trade. Watch EUR/CAD bounce today from 1.5558 and 1.5576 and 1.5579 to 1.5606 and 1.5621. Top of today’s channel is 1.5713 and excellent sell area.

AUD/USD is contained from 0.7669 to 0.7677. AUD price is deeply low and oversold and break point is now 0.7769. AUD will be reviewed after the close today for possible new upside target from 0.7836.

NZD/USD remains below its break point at 0.7260. EUR/NZD is again playing around its vital 1.7088.

USD/JPY break is located today 108.04. Upse target today located at 107.93 on break of 107.82.

EUR/AUD is again trading in the 1.6000’s, short is the way.

USD/PLN traded yesterday to its next break point above 1.3719 to 1.3816. Watch 1.4023 break, its close.

GBP/USD is close to its most vital break point at 1.3969. A break then much lower for GBP. Look for 1.3991 and 1.4007 to contain GBP today. Higher must break 1.4072 then 1.4097.

GBP/JPY big line break is located just below at 150.86. At 151.33 and 151.10 must hold or 150.86 becomes vulnerable to a break lower.

USD/CAD trades below most vital break at 1.2674 inside a small range from 1.2641 to 1.2674.


Brian Twomey