EUR/USD and G10: Levels, Ranges, Targets

The concept of unsettled prices last month derived from cross pair misalignment to alignment. 35 + trades from cross pairs attested to this consideration and the pip counts earned answered the how far as well as 5 week time frame to alignment question.

Vast majority of today’s cross pairs after current alignment remain in ranges from 100 to 150 pips and nothing special yet to overall big moves. And this includes every cross pair on the planet. Only changes between currency pairs is letters and numbers. Highlighted pairs this week in EUR/AUD and EUR/NZD were exceptions to 100 to 150 ranges and known long before as correct trades.

After cross pair alignment, prices for all currency pairs were settled to include the USD and Non. The USD V Non led the charge as traditionally expected in sound currency market prices and the march resulted in breaks of major levels. EUR/USD longs for example must break above while USD pairs must break below levels. Even USD/PLN broke vital 3.4229 and dashed to 3.44 while AUD/NZD remained a troubled currency pair as 1.0700’s held.

The constant from generation to generation and 2000 years is exchange rate formulas and market structures haven’t changed one iota. What changed was market participants and whatever modern day tools, views and perceptions are employed. Today’s prices for example remain constant but its the central banks chipping away at the edges of structures. The changes are slight yet most prevalent.

USD/JPY broke 108.04 and 108.17 then traded to next reported level at 108.93. Below must break 108.15 to target lower prices at 107.32 and 107.08. Light years of downside exist for USD/JPY as it currently trades at top of its multi year range. The big bank call for 116 at Q3 end is impossible as the channel top is located at today’s 113.45. USD/JPY prices remain at war with each other and the rise to 108.93 was forced upon USD/JPY.

EUR/USD break point is located at 1.2248. Above then back on track to 1.2300’s. Overall, 1.1800’s and 1.1700’s now remain deeply oversold and for weeks the bottom supports began rising to protect deeper downside movements. The base formation reported over several weeks inside the guts of EUR/USD numbers I suspect will materialize at the end of the week review.
AUD/USD. Only points for AUD/USD downside are 0.7590 and 0.7572. AUD is now further into richter scale oversold and break point is located at 0.7763. AUD is heading far higher. AUD is not heading to 0.7100’s as the same big bank reported.
AUD/JPY remains today trading 17 pips higher from Sunday’s open. Break point is located at 83.93 and target is found just below. Buy dips.

GBP/USD dead stopped at reported 1.3919 then bounced. Above 1.3961 then higher. Massive resistance is located 1.4225 while next below is located at 1.3801 and 1.3772. Ranges are wide.

EUR/AUD remains the gift that keeps on giving. Sell rallies to 1.5900’s and 1.5700’s.

Massive overbought USD/CAD break point is located at 1.2680 while top channel is located at 1.3062. Shorts only is the way forward.

EUR/JPY 133.11 held again. Shorts only above.

Massively oversold NZD/USD higher means a break at 0.7244.

GBP/JPY 150.95 supports GBP/JPY.

Watch EUR/CAD 1.3719.


Brian Twomey