EUR/USD V USD/JPY and G10: Levels, Ranges, Targets

The most important relationships in currency markets in past decades is most widely traded by actual numbers and % of all traded pairs is EUR/USD, USD/JPY and EUR/JPY. EUR/JPY was the premiere risk pair as it defined direction to EUR/USD and USD/JPY as well as insights to USD Vs non USD currency pairs. Seen since Feb 23rd the EUR/USD and USD/JPY relationship was contained to barely 200 pip overall monthly ranges and 200 pip ranges in the majors contained EUR/JPY to a smaller degree.

Since Feb 23rd, USD/JPY rose 478 pips from 105.26 to 110.04 but then came the weeks of April 17 and April 24 when USD/JPY dipped to 104.64 and 104.58. USD/JPY actually rose 546 pips from 104.58 or 182 pips per month.

EUR/JPY rose 391 pips since Feb 23rd from 129.58 to 133.49 but then came the week of April 17 when EUR/JPY dipped to 128.97 then the actual pip jump was 452 pips or 150 pips per month.

EUR/USD jumped 320 pips between Feb 23rd to April 24th from 1.2158 to 1.2478 or 160 pips per month then dived 652 pips to last week’s 1.1822.

EUR/USD break point for higher is located at 1.2069 and this contains EUR/USD to roughly 1.1941 to 1.2195. Below, 1.1833 serves as this week’s long point to trade to 1.1941. The road higher to 1.2069 is rough as 1.1990 must clear first then 1.2009, 1.2039, 1.2046 and 1.2083.

USD/JPY must break is located at 109.04 then target at 108.08. USD/JPY must first break 109.21 then 109.12. Overall 109.99, 109.43 and 109.37 descends upon USD/JPY and protects the 110.07 break at the 5 year average. Good sell point at 109.99 and the same advice written last week at 109.97.

EUR/JPY sits on solid supports at 128.63 and 129.50, 129.18 and 129.01. The must break point for higher is located at 131.57. The 133 top written weeks ago is now 132.29. In the way to 131.57 is 130.76, 130.89 and 131.35. Watch for quick longs at 130.42 but overall nothing special in EUR/JPY.

EUR/GBP recall from the last trade is again at our sell point at 0.8813. EUR/GBP desperately needs a dive. Break points are located at 0.8796, 0.8794 and 0.8782. Below 0.8782 then targets 0.8665 and 0.8548 and 0.8533. Longs are impossible.

AUD/USD break Point is located at 0.7634 and above targets 0.7713, 0.7749 and 0.7778. First break point to 0.7634 are 0.7561 and 0.7601. Below is contained at 0.7519. Longer term target remains at 0.7816. AUD contains terrific potential higher.

GBP/USD Overall range is located at 1.3299 to the break point at 1.3721. Above 1.3721 targets 1.3805, 1.3883 and 1.3890. Longer term target is located at 1.4190. Below 1.3299 then comes 1.3193.  GBP contains great potential to travel much higher.


Brian Twomey