EUR/USD and G10: Levels, Ranges, Targets


USD/CAD and CAD/JPY led the way in March for 600 pip moves then USD/CAD settled into a 300 pip range where it remained since March while CAD/JPY ranged roughly 100 to 150 pips.

EUR/JPY was already into its roughly 400 pip range from 129.00’s to 133 tops and not much changed since March. AUD/JPY settled into its 400 pip range from 80 to 84 however 80 and 84 were outliers as AUD/JPY hasn’t strayed far from 82’s since March. GBP/JPY’s 145 to 153 and 800 pip range remains the big mover yet recall May 8 and long from bottoms at 147.46 and overall 150 target.

Here’s the overall question: how many of the 35 currency pairs posted since March completed its 600 pip mission and to what time frame. 28 currency pairs in the majors are offered but not many of 28 are worth the trouble on long term holds.
EUR/AUD after 2 months just hit its 1.5736 target from 1.6100’s after 2 months for 200 pips per month. The optimum method to trade EUR/AUD to the 1.5736 target is by hitting daily highs then short, ht highs then short as gains far above 200 pips will be seen. The alternative is to plow into the 200 pips and live life outside the daily screens and pablum commentaries.

What is seen from 200 and 300 pip movements per month is the new currency market structure in place since June 2016. But 2 and 300 pips are trend pips as opposed to range pips, big difference. Central banks changed interest rates into a forced daily lending program to ensure nation’s money constantly moves but they streamlined the available borrow and lend ranges. Interest rates and lend/ borrow was the target designed for daily and short term moves and the exchange rate suffered the ancillary effects. CAD is the greatest mover because the BOC can’t nor won’t change its perfectly designed interest rate structure. Luckily for USD, Commercial Paper can’t be touched.

EUR/USD. What remains below is 1.1712 then 1.1588. Above must break 1.2045 to target 1.2100’s and 1.2200’s. Massive resistance exists at 1.2300’s.

USD/JPY Below break exist at 110.09 then 109.23. Above must break 110.44 and 110.46 to target 110.98 then 111.71. Top channel exists at 113.30.

GBP/USD. How about today’s break point is 1.3700, exactly at 1.370062. Break of 1.3700 targets 1.3890 then 1.4190. Below 1.3299 and 1.3193 remain vital supports.

GBP/JPY. 149.94 represents the current break point.

EUR/GBP from Monday sell 0.8817, traded to 0.8713 with a target at 0.8663. Sell rallies is the way for many weeks to come.

NZD/USD Break Point now 0.7074. Below breaks exist at 0.6869 and 0.6742.

AUD/EUR broke higher above 0.6300’s and explains why EUR/AUD now trades at 1.5600’s and on its way to 1.5500’s.

USD/CAD watch today 1.2763 as a break lower targets 1.2500’s.


Brian Twomey

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