EUR/USD V USD/JPY and G10: Levels, Ranges, Targets

From Last week’s written line – up: EUR/USD traded 167 pips from 1.1507 to 1.1674, GBP/USD 210 pips from 1.3105 to 1.3315, USD/JPY 120 pips from 110.75 to 109.55, AUD/USD 94 pips from 0.7348 to 0.7442, USD/CAD 222 pips from 1.3159 to 1.3381 and GBP/CAD 349 pips from 1.7423 to 1.7772.

EUR/USD vs common currency market themes at 50 to 150 pips traded last week 167 pips and 262 in the prior week, USD/CAD traded 222 last week vs 252 pips 2 weeks ago, AUD/USD traded last week 94 pips Vs 183 pips 2 weeks ago. GBP traded 210 pips last week VS 234 pips 2 weeks ago.

EUR/USD again remains a long only strategy as the weekly target is now 1.1806. Higher to target 1.1940 and 1.1942 must break 1.1824. To 1.1806 target must break 1.1645, 1.1660, 1.1671, 1.1683 then to 1.1710, 1.1747, 1.1763 and 1.1784. Watch for longs below 1.1635.

USD/JPY target this week is located at 109.15 and 108.99 on a break of 109.74. Watch the cluster of supports at 109.64, 109.62 and 109.60 to clear then on to 108.99. Above sell points 110.02, 110.21, 110.32 and 110.68.

GBP/USD. As the Fed now holds interest rates at 2.00 and BOE at 0.50, the BOE by osmosis will be forced to raise and a raise means GBP far higher. Last week’s mention to GBP’s off kilter relationship to its pertinent averages was the explanation to the violent upswing to the 6 -3 BOE decision.

Higher for GBP must break 1.3464 to target 1.3593 and 1.3652 then on to 1.3800’s. Target this week on a long only strategy is located at 1.3367 and 1.3383. Below long points begin at 1.3270, 1.3262 and 1.3253.

AUD/USD break point for higher is located at 0.7565 to target 0.7600’s and 0.7700’s. A break at 0.7532 is required to then lead the way to a break at 0.7565. Target remains the same as last week, 0.7550’s and longs below 0.7450’s. AUD maintains the same relationship to its averages as does GBP. The averages remain severely off kilter. Both AUD and GBP remain deeply oversold.

USD/CAD’s deeply overbought condition maintains its break point for lower at 1.2980. Lower for CAD must break 1.3166, 1.3024 and 1.3006 to target and break 1.2980 then on to 1.2800’s and 1.2700’s. CAD remains a short only strategy against a massive potential for a deeply lower price. CAD like its AUD and GBP counterparts holds an off kilter relationship to its averages.

Notice GBP, AUD and CAD and the off kilter relationships to its averages. NZD can assume it contains the same off relationship to its averages and the reason is derived from AUD, NZD and CAD are past members of the great British Empire. When each left the British Empire, all adopted the same UK money market system against slight twists to distinguish each nation as its own separate entity. In all, not much changed over the centuries. AUD, GBP and NZD averages are equally oversold while CAD maintains equal overbought.

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EUR/USD V USD/JPY and G10: Levels, Ranges, Targets

Currency market common themes at 50 and 150 pip ranges experienced slight violations particularly in EUR pairs. Ranges were reported last week against the caveat to many currency pair prices approached and/ or traded at significant high/ low break points therefore subject to long rejection candles. EUR/USD, EUR/JPY and GBP/USD approached 1.1895, 1.3544 and 130.00’s then dropped while USD/CAD and USD/JPY rose from break points at 1.2950 and 109.29.

Among the 10 currency pairs posted last week EUR/USD, EUR/AUD and EUR/JPY were clear winners as each dropped 262 pips, 263 and 264 to violate the upper 150 range by roughy 100 pips. EUR/USD dropped from 1.1809 to 1.1547, EUR/AUD 1.5694 to 1.5431 and EUR/JPY 130.33 to 127.69.

USD/CAD was next to violate at 252 pips as CAD jumped from 1.2950 to 1.3202 followed by GBP/USD’s 237 pip drop from 1.3449 to 1.3212. GBP/JPY and USD/JPY each roamed 164 and 161 pips from 147.90 to 146.32 and 109.28 to 110.89.

AUD/USD and AUD/JPY each ranged 183 and 188 pips from 0.7622 to 0.7439 and 84.15 to 82.27. AUD/JPY since March and reported many times previously, held 84.00 to 82.00’s against slight violations at 81.00 and 85.00’s but always managed to retain its 82.00 to 84.00 space.

CAD/JPY held 149 pips from 85.20 to 83.71. Reported last week in CAD/JPY was the continued struggle to USD/CAD as this relationship contains serious problems. Note the perfection in EUR/USD V EUR/JPY and AUD/USD to AUD/JPY.

USD/CAD must travel miles lower and CAD/JPY higher in order for this relationship to rectify. The same problem relationship is seen in GBP/USD to GBP/JPY but GBP/JPY is clearly explained by an uncertain and clueless USD/JPY since its March rise from 105.00’s.

Into week 2 is again seen a USD correction lower and non USD as in EUR/USD and GBP higher. The clear winners higher this week are seen easily in EUR and GBP and USD/CAD lower while USD/JPY will remain the slow / dead mover.

EUR/USD higher to again target 1.1812 must break 1.1660, 1.1669 then 1.1718 and 1.1724. Caution is warranted at 1.1724 as much daylight exists from 1.1724 to 1.1803 then the 1.1812 target. Above 1.1724, EUR/USD could easily see a 1.1724 to 1.1784 range. EUR/USD break point to target 1.1946, 1.1952 and longer term 1.2038 and 1.2085 is located at 1.1881.

EUR/USD below break is located at 1.1383 and is under no threat this week to travel lower. EUR this week retains a long only strategy.

GBP/USD deeply oversold like its EUR/USD counterpart, targets easily this week 1.3349 then 1.3449 ahead of its vital break point at 1.3518 to target 1.3600’s and 1.3800’s. GBP drops fails to maintain its relationship with current averages therefore GBP’s overall ability to skyrocket and travel significantly higher over time remains a great potential. GBP’s best comfort zone is located from 1.3518 to 1.3800’s and this area coincides to EUR/USD 1.1800 to 1.2000’s.

AUD/USD break point is located at 0.7623 to travel higher to 0.7700’s. This week’s targets are located at 0.7555, 0.7573 and 0.7589. At 0.7589 must break to target 0.7623 and 0.7700’s. AUD as well is deeply oversold short and long term as AUD contains every ability to target 0.7800’s over time.

GBP/CAD is well supported at 1.7438 and 1.7429 and target this week is located at 1.7699 upon breaks at 1.7568 and 1.7597.

USD/CADis not only overbought but a clear favorite for shorts to target longer term again 1.2776 on breaks at 1.2894, 1.2883 and 1.2865. First break points below are located at 1.3010, 1.3001, 1.2981 and 1.2930. For the week acceptable targets are located at 1.2981 and 1.2930. Recall USD/CAD last week bounced from current lower 1.2900 supports.

USD/JPY Lower targets 109.01 and 108.88 on breaks at 109.76, 109.64. First breaks lower are located at 110.50, 110.27, 110.19 then on to 109.64 and lower. Above 110.50 targets 111.87 and 111.96 and far more closer to USD/JPY historic range tops at 113.00’s. As stated previously, USD/JPY contains great potential to travel significantly lower to 107.00’s on a break of 109.64 and 108.88.

 

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Brian Twomey

 

EUR/USD V USD/JPY and JPY Crosses: Levels, Ranges, Targets

The currency market common theme this week is again focused on major break points inside the same 50 to 150 ranges for a vast majority of currency pairs. The prime example is EUR/USD break point at 1.1895 Vs USD/JPY at 109.41. The respective failure at break points held USD/JPY inside a 100 pip range last week from 109.20 to 110.25 and 181 pips for EUR/USD from 1.1657 to 1.1838.

Last week’s reported dark area in USD/JPY from 109.45 to 110.01 held for the most part and this week the same area exists from 109.45 to 110.04. Rarely seen Dark areas represent untouchable zones until a price break is seen.

The second theme as USD/CAD, USD/JPY correction lower, EUR/USD and non USD pairs higher remains this week’s price path. This week will clearly decide as the internals inside current prices contains easily ability for EUR/USD to break 1.1895 and seen inside USD/JPY is a good prospect to literally drop like a rock. What contains a massive USD/JPY fall however is seen in EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY higher against a range bound scenario in CAD/JPY and AUD/JPY. Clearly a volatile week is here and USD/JPY as the prime driver.

USD/JPY from the 109.55 close ranges from 109.42 to 109.69. Below most vital 109.42 targets remain from last week at 108.77 and 108.73 then possibly next week to further target 107.87. Above 109.69, sell points to target 109.42 and below to 108.77 is located at 110.04, 110.07, 110.22 and 110.44. Overall, any price above 109.45 becomes open for shorts and sell rally is the proper strategy as longs are impossible considerations.

EUR/USD must break 1.1873 and 1.1895 to target 1.1920 and 1.1954 then eventual 1.2058 and 1.2084. EUR/USD would then easily range from 1.2058 and 1.2054 to 1.2304 and 1.2357 as 1.2300’s represents breaks point to see a 1.2500 and 1.2700 EUR.
Below inside a EUR/USD weekly buy drop strategy, long points are located at 1.1730, 1.1722 and a solid line at 1.1679.
GP/JPY main break point to target 150.14 is located at 148.17. To achieve 150.14, GBP/JPY must clear 148.33, 148.55 and 148.93. The clear higher or lower point is located at 147.23.

Below inside a weekly buy drop strategy, long points are located at 146.68 and 146.65 then 145.47 and 145.42. Lower 145.00’s are not expected however as GBP/JPY will trade extremely bullish all week.

EUR/JPY as stated last week, break point now 130.13 leads to the top and many many points at 131.00’s. Target at 129.57 achieves by breaks at 129.15. Main break point all week to decide higher/ lower is located at 128.52. Below 128.01 and 127.61 provides excellent long point for an all week buy drop strategy. Not a terrific choice in EUR/JPY as GBP/JPY provides a clearer price path and wider ranges.

EUR/AUD break point above 1.5567 targets 1.5675 and 1.5697. Any price above 1.5536, all week provides excellent sell points as the overall top in EUR/AUD is located at 1.5700’s. Longs are again impossible and short only strategy is the only way. Note the word “ANY”. Look for shorts to 1.5417.

AUD/JPY break point is located at 83.60 from the 83.25 close. A break at 83.60 targets 84.46. Long drops is located at 82.80 and 82.06. To target a break at 83.60 then AUD/JPY must clear 83.16. Not a terrific currency choice in AUD/JPY as range conditions persist from 82.00’s to 84.00’s since March. AUD/JPY qualifies as well as EUR/GBP, CAD/CHF in the lower end 50 ish pip ranges as not much is seen to movements to AUD/JPY.

AUD/USD break point now 0.7641 and a rising line by 17 pips higher from last week’s 0.7624. Long points and only strategy is located at 0.7580, 0.7577 and 0.7554. AUD in on a long only strategy. Break at 0.7641 contains best shot provided 0.7619 breaks higher. Overall target is 0.7677, 0.7703 and 0.7805 in weeks ahead.

GBP/USD break point at 1.3544 targets 1.3611 and 1.3689. In weeks ahead on a 1.3544 break targets 1.3700’s, 1.3800’s and 1.4100’s. GBP for the week is heading higher and buy drops at 1.3378, 1.3327 and 1.3277 yet doubtful to be seen. Long only is the only way forward.

USD/CAD. Same deal as last week, short only strategy and short “Any” price above 1.2998. CAD break point at 1.2848 targets 1.2760 and 1.2715 on a break below and 1.2576 in weeks ahead.

CAD/JPY. Same pair, same Stats, and same tired range conditions as AUD/JPY. Reason for similarities is Australia and Canada share many of the same structures inside respective money markets systems.

Break point is located at 85.17 to target 85.63, 85.89, 85.98 and 86.03. CAD/JPY will struggle all week as USD/CAD decides its fate below 1.2848. Buy drops is located at 84.51, 84.30 and 84.11. As USD/CAD breaks 1.2848 then far higher to target 86.27 and higher will go CAD/JPY.

Again, note roughly 150 pip range and also note levels, ranges and targets are always exact week after week and year after year. Failure for major break point to break higher/lower will result in long rejection candles. Caution at vital break points.

Brian Twomey

EUR/USD V USD/JPY and G10: Levels, Ranges, Targets

The common theme to currency market prices reported last week at 75 to 200 pip ranges held as EUR/USD for one example was knocked off its upward trajectory by Monday’s Italian elections and dived 138 pips to 1.1510 only to regain its correct weekly path to rise 214 pips to 1.1724.

The second theme as USD pairs lower to correct while non USD pairs higher also held last week and explains why EUR as one example rose 214 pips from its Italian lows. It explains USD/CAD’s 200 ish pip drop to 1.2800’s on Thursday’s BOC day and USD/JPY’s 171 pip dive from 109.80 to 108.11.

Currency markets this week will trade 50 and 150 ranges as the USD correction lower and non USD higher theme holds into its second week. Why the drop to 50 and 150 pip ranges is due because most vital break points to significant averages becomes the focus for a vast majority of currency pairs. Currency prices either break or long rejection candles are seen. Clearly, an interesting week is ahead.

The favorite pair again this week is clearly USD/CAD as overbought CAD desperately wishes to travel higher but CAD averages are moving against higher prices. EUR/USD and AUD/USD will trade strongly as both pairs move higher followed by GBP/USD and GBP/JPY. USD/JPY and EUR/JPY trade again as usual in their same old tired ways while EUR/AUD as inclusion this week is seen as nothing special. Encouraging to the EUR/USD Vs USD/JPY relationship is early beginnings to the first price divergence seen since Feb 23rd.

EUR/USD. To understand EUR/USD is to view its overall price trajectories in 300 pip ranges as EUR/USD begins from upper 1.1200’s and 1.1300’s to 1.1600’s then 1.1600’s to 1.1900. Above 1.1900 goes to 1.2200 and 1.2300 then 1.2300 to 1.2500 and 1.2700. Long and short term Hedges now established.

EUR/USD last week targets were located at 1.1788 and 1.1824 and EUR/USD traded to 1.1727. This week targets are located at 1.1704 and 1.1817. EUR/USD most vital break point for significantly higher is located 1.1896. A break higher then targets 1.2080’s and lower 1.2100’s. Vital supports and good long points are located at 1.1634, 1.1670 and 1.1687. EUR/USD to the extreme is located at 1.1572. Long only strategy applies to EUR/USD for the week.

USD/JPY break point is located at 109.30 and targets 108.57 on a further break below 109.46. USD/JPY’s problem this week is a dark area developed from 109.46 to 110.01 and in between is 109.73. Above 110.01 exists 110.27 and 110.42. Overall, USD/JPY is a short only strategy to target 108.57. At 109.30 and 109.73 establishes entry. Longer term, a deeper USD correction could see USD/JPY easily trade to 107.76 and 107.25.

USD/CAD break point to target 1.2740 and longer term 1.2571 is located at overbought 1.2832. The problem at 1.2832 is its well protected by 1.2876, 1.2854, 1.2845 then 1.2803. An off sync economic announcement maybe required to push CAD lower to break 1.2832. Lower to challenge 1.2832 is located at 1.2922, 1.2909 then CAD is clear to 1.2800’s. Above, last week’s 1.3003 is now located at 1.2996. As was the strategy since March, short only is the only way forward.

GBP/USD. Last week’s target at 1.3437 traded to 1.3362 and like EUR/USD fell a few pips shy as Monday’s Italian election debacle knocked GBP a few pips off course. This week’s taget is a few pips higher than last week at 1.3462. GBP’s break point for higher to target 1.3700 and 1.3800’s is located at 1.3558. Only points below and good long entries if seen are located at 1.3277 and 1.3232. GBP averages are rising and this is a good indication for a much higher GBP over coming weeks.

GBP/JPY main break point is located at 148.16 and a break above targets 150.19. Targets this week are located at 147.23 and 147.69. GBP/JPY to 147.23 should be an easy ride and overall GBP/JPY as well as GBP/USD contain astounding potential for miles higher. Only points below and good long points if seen are 146.58 and 145.61.

EUR/JPY should view as 122.00 to 125.00 then 125.00 to 128.00 and 128.00 to 131.00’s. The main break point to target 131.00’s is located at 130.01. EUR/JPY will find severe resistance at 130.51, 130.84 and 130.95.

Higher for EUR/JPY last week as mentioned would entail a struggle as 128.59 had to break to target 129.68. EUR/JPY traded to 128.52 then dived on Italian election concerns.Target this week is 129.44 on breaks of 128.01, 128.53, 128.72 then 129.11. Most important in this series is 128.53 to travel to target.

AUD/USD break point is located at 0.7624 to target 0.7691 and 0.7711. AUD must break first 0.7613 then home free to 0.7624 and higher. Last week AUD traded to 0.7592 then retreated to 0.7514 and closed at 0.7568. AUD was expected to break 0.7624 last week and this week contains a far better shot. Long only for the week is the only strategy as AUD will trade against a strongly bullish tone. Economic news this week contains Inflation, GBP, Retail Sales and RBA Tuesday. Long any drops to outside price events will offer great opportunities.

EUR/AUD break point is located at 1.5603. EUR/AUD will struggle at 1.5541, 1.5571 and good quick shorts if seen to target 1.5454. Overall nothing exciting exists in EUR/AUD. The import to 1.5603 break higher would see AUD/USD much lower and also to erase any gains seen above 0.7624. The preferred strategy is long any drops from lower 1.5300’s then target 1.5454.

 

Brian Twomey